Domestic oil prices may rise for the first time this year. At 24: 00 on the 28th, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. As the average international crude oil price is expected to exceed $40/barrel, many institutions think that? Break the reserve price? Expectations may come true, and domestic oil prices may rise for the first time this year. As of Friday's close, Brent crude oil futures reported $40.64 and US crude oil futures reported $ 38. 16. According to the Measures for the Administration of Petroleum Price issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on June 3rd, 2065438+2006+65438: When the crude oil price in the international market is lower than 40 USD/barrel (inclusive), the refined oil price is calculated according to the crude oil price of 40 USD/barrel and the normal processing profit rate. ? What's the name of 40 dollars a barrel? Bottom price? .

Will oil prices continue to rise? Citibank said that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is still trying to curb the supply of crude oil, and US shale oil production has recently declined. The average target of Brent crude oil futures in the fourth quarter of this year is $48/barrel, and the average target of 202 1 fourth quarter is $665,438/barrel. The crude oil market in 2022 is relatively optimistic, because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has done a good job in complying with the production reduction agreement, some crude oil production projects have been postponed, and global crude oil production has declined.

According to the bank's data, the average price target of Brent crude oil is 59 USD/barrel in 2022 and 55 USD/barrel in 2023. As countries relax blockade measures, global demand for crude oil will continue to grow. But before the second half of 20021,the global demand for crude oil will not reach the level of 20 19. In mid-July, crude oil inventories will show strong growth.

Regarding the prospect of international oil price trend, haitong futures said that in the medium and long term, the logic of fundamentals pushing up oil prices still holds, and there is likely to be a supply shortage in the second half of the year. If the demand side is not disappointed, it is expected that the oil price will resume the upward trend in the future. Gasoline, aviation kerosene and diesel oil are the main sales markets of refined oil in China. In recent years, the overall development of the refined oil market has been stable.