In "Reunion 3" of Marvel Comics, Thanos can destroy half the universe with a snap of his fingers and make many superheroes disappear. His philosophical world outlook (maintaining ecological balance) actually coincides with the population theory put forward by Malthus trap, that is, the contradiction between the poverty of material life and the need of human reproduction.
In the long thousands of years, Malthusian traps have appeared frequently, but the only way for human beings to solve the crisis seems to be war and disease.
Until the first industrial revolution more than 200 years ago, industrial technology entered a period of rapid iteration, and Britain was considered to be the first country to jump out of the Malthusian trap; Less than 100 years later, the time came to the middle and late19th century. With the joint efforts of many European countries, the United States and Japan, the second industrial revolution was promoted, and human beings evolved from age of steam to the electrical age. Less than 100 years later, the United States launched the third technological revolution, but this time, Japan occupied the most conspicuous position on the stage.
Economists generally believe that every time the scientific and technological revolution comes to an end, it is the next depression that can be expected, the world falls into a low growth, and mankind will slip into the Malthusian trap.
It seems too early to discuss when the electrical age will end. However, with the pendulum of time, mankind has indeed reached the zero point of another technological revolution, standing at the bottom of the third technological revolution cycle, expecting a new turning point and new uncertainty.
In 2020, a sudden epidemic seems to tear the whole world apart.
Take the automobile industry as an example. At present, almost all major auto companies in the global auto market, except China, are trapped by the epidemic, and then inevitably slide to long-term stagnation. In the European Union, the closure of factories has so far affected about 40% of workers in the European automobile manufacturing industry line, and a large number of employees of automobile enterprises are facing employment problems.
According to Moody's forecast, global automobile sales are expected to drop by 65,438+04% in 2020, much higher than the estimated drop of about 2.5% in February. Some auto analysts even predict that it may take about 10 years for the European passenger car market to recover to the level of 20 19 years.
Pause, restart, a reality is that when global cars fall into a "dark moment", global cars will accelerate into the dangerous edge of zero-sum game and stock killing.
If, according to Samuelson's theory, the world economic development is a cycle, and there is a mechanism of pioneers and other laggards in nature, then after missing the development opportunities of the first three industrial revolutions, will China wait for an opportunity to stand at the forefront and avenge the past?
When other markets around the world pressed the pause button in succession, China naturally became the Noah's Ark-like existence of major car companies. More than one automobile manufacturer is currently not in the China market and has no income; Musk, who suffered a global shutdown, must be particularly lucky. The machine of the Shanghai Super Factory, which was blessed by "China Speed" last year, roared at the moment; And will Lexus, which is affected by the suspension of production by local factories and suppliers in Japan and the lag effect is gradually emerging, shake the choice that it has resolutely not made in China?
Let's look at Europe again. It has been in the leading position in the world industry for a long time. In the past half century, it has actually been on the road of decline. A leisurely lifestyle is beyond reproach, but it inevitably gives people a sense of stagnation. According to a survey, in the past 40 years, no company founded in Europe has a market value of more than 654.38 billion US dollars. In China, many companies have done this, including Huawei, Ali and Didi Chuxing. It is the innovation of these enterprises that has touched the life of China people to a new height of modern civilization.
Europe is the place where cars were invented, but before the arrival of the fourth industrial revolution with "intelligence" as the core, there was nowhere to hide Europe's panic and old age.
If European cars are still struggling on the road of transformation, then the heyday of American auto industry has become a thing of the past. Without the emergence of Tesla, as the proud automobile industry in the United States, I am afraid it will not escape the loneliness of the hero's dying.
Since 20 19, the global automobile growth has fallen into a downturn, and the focus of automobile enterprises has shifted to the competition for stocks. Coupled with the sudden shutdown and restart caused by this year's epidemic, the entire automobile industry will fall into more intense competition, and the ranking of the leading role may be greatly deviated this year.
The best opportunities usually come in the darkest hours. Now, it is undoubtedly the best opportunity for young China cars to fight back. But this opportunity is fleeting. Either sublimate or destroy, perhaps this series of magical events in 2020 has pushed open the door of time.
Text/five horses
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.