Will the prices of futures contracts that are about to expire generally rise?
In theory, the probability of futures falling is relatively large. This is because the price of futures is generally higher than the spot price because of storage fees and other expenses, and the maturity of futures itself is the process of converting futures into spot prices, and the price of futures will continue to approach the spot price, so the probability of falling is relatively large. However, there are also cases where the futures price is lower than the spot price, and it is also possible to make up for the basis difference of the spot price by raising the spot price, so the uncertainty in the actual situation is still relatively large.
After reading the above, many investors find that there are actually arbitrage opportunities here. We may feel that as long as the delivery date is near, shorting futures is basically a sure win. Although the truth is correct, in fact, individual investors are not allowed to bring contracts into the delivery month, and are generally forced to close their positions by the exchange (except CICC).
The above is Bian Xiao's sharing, and I hope it will help everyone.