SAR index, also known as parabola index or stop-loss turning operating point index, is called "Stop and Reveres", which was initiated by American technical analyst Wells Wilder and is a simple and accurate short-term technical analysis tool.
Section 1 Principle and Calculation Method of SAR Index
First, the principle of SAR indicators
From the English full name of SAR index, we know that it has two meanings. The first is "stop", which means stop loss, stop loss. This requires investors to set a stop-loss price before buying and selling stocks to reduce investment risks. And this stop-loss price is not always constant, it is constantly adjusted with the fluctuation of stock price. How to effectively control potential risks and make greater profits without losing time is the goal pursued by every investor. But the situation of the stock market is unpredictable, and the trend of different stocks in different periods is different. If the stop-loss level is set too high, the stock may be sold when it falls back, but the sold stock will start a new round of rise and miss the opportunity to earn more profits. On the other hand, if the stop loss is set too low, it will not control the risk at all. Therefore, how to accurately set the stop loss position is the purpose of various technical analysis theories and indicators, and SAR indicators have its unique role in this respect.
The second meaning of the full English name of SAR indicator is "Reverse", which means reverse operation. This requires investors to set a stop before deciding to invest in stocks. When the price reaches the stop-loss price, investors should not only liquidate the stocks they bought in the early stage, but also carry out reverse short operation at the same time in order to maximize the income. This method can be used in the securities market with short selling mechanism, but short selling is not allowed in China's domestic market at present, so investors mainly adopt two methods. One is to throw the stock in time when the stock price falls below the stop-loss price, and then wait and see. The other is to buy stocks or hold shares in time when the stock price breaks through the stock price pressure shown by SAR indicators.
Second, the calculation method of SAR index
Like MACD, DMI and other indicators, the calculation formula of SAR indicators is quite complicated. The calculation of SAR is mainly aimed at the calculation of SAR that changes every cycle, that is, the calculation of stop-loss price. Before calculating SAR, a period should be selected, such as n days or n weeks, and the parameters of n days or n weeks are generally 4 days or 4 weeks. Next, judge whether the stock price is rising or falling during this period, and then calculate the SAR value through step-by-step reasoning.
Taking the calculation of daily SAR as an example, the calculation formula of daily SAR is as follows:
SAR(n)= SAR(n- 1)+AF & lt； EP(n- 1)—SAR(n- 1)>
Where SAR(n) is the SAR value of the nth day, and SAR (n- 1) is the value of the (n- 1) th day.
AF is the acceleration factor (or acceleration coefficient) and EP is the limit price (the highest price or the lowest price).
When calculating the SAR value, the following principles should be noted:
The one-time calculation of 1.SAR value must start from the nth day of the nearest obvious high and low point.
2. If it is a bull market, SAR(0) is the lowest price in the near future; If it is a bear market, SAR(0) is the highest price at the top recently.
3. Acceleration factor AF can be divided into upward acceleration factor and downward acceleration factor. If it is a bull market, it is an upward acceleration factor; If it is bearish, it is the downward acceleration factor.
4. The initial value of the acceleration coefficient AF is always based on 0.02. If after buying a stock in a bull market, the highest price on a certain day is higher than the highest price on the previous day, the acceleration factor AF is increased by 0.02 and included in the calculation. However, the acceleration factor AF does not exceed 0.2 at most. Conversely, the bear market is also an analogy.
5. If the SAR value calculated on a certain day in the bull market is higher than the lowest price of that day or the previous day, the lowest price of that day or the previous day will be taken as the SAR value of that day. If the calculated SAR value of a certain day is lower than the highest price of that day or the previous day in a bear market, the highest price of that day or the previous day should be taken as the SAR value of that day. In short, the SAR value should not be set within the range of market price changes of the current day or the previous day.
6. In any market change, the acceleration factor AF must be recalculated from 0.02.
7. The reference period parameter for the calculation of 7.SAR index period is 2, such as 2 days, 2 weeks, February, etc. The parameter variation range of its calculation period is 2-8.
8. The calculation method and process of 8.SAR index are complicated. For investors, as long as they master the calculation process and principle, they don't need to calculate SAR value themselves in actual operation. More importantly, investors should flexibly master and use the judgment methods and functions of SAR indicators.
Section 2 General Criteria for Determining SAR Indicators
Because of its simplicity, easy operation, stability and reliability, SAR index is also called "fool" index, which is widely used by investors, especially small and medium-sized retail investors.
I. General criteria for judging SAR indicators
The general criteria for judging SAR indicators include the following four aspects:
1. When the stock price breaks through the SAR curve from the bottom, it is a buy signal, which indicates that a round of stock price rise may begin. Investors should buy stocks in time and quickly.
2. When the stock price breaks through the SAR curve and continues to run upward, and the SAR curve also runs upward, it shows that the upward trend of the stock price has been formed, and the SAR curve has formed a strong support for the stock price. Investors should resolutely hold shares to rise or buy stocks on dips.
3. When the stock price breaks through the SAR curve from the top of the SAR curve, in order to sell the signal, it indicates that a round of stock price decline may begin, and investors should sell the stock quickly and timely.
4. When the stock price breaks through the SAR curve downward and continues to move downward, the SAR curve also moves downward, indicating that the downward trend of the stock price has been formed, and the SAR curve has put great pressure on the stock price. Investors should resolutely wait and see or lighten their positions on rallies.
Second, the role of SAR indicators
Compared with other technical indicators, SAR indicators provide considerable help for ordinary investors to judge the market, which is embodied in the following three aspects:
1, hold the money and wait and see
When the share price of a stock is suppressed by the SAR indicator and keeps running downwards, investors can wait and see all the way until the share price breaks through the pressure of the SAR indicator and sends a clear buying signal, and then consider whether to buy the stock.
2. Increase shareholding
When a stock's share price is above the SAR indicator and keeps moving upward by relying on the SAR indicator, investors can hold shares all the way until the stock price breaks through the support of the SAR indicator and sends a clear selling signal, and then consider whether to sell the stock.
Step 3 clear the stop loss
SAR index has a very clear stop loss function, and its stop loss is divided into buy stop loss and sell stop loss. Selling stop loss means that when SAR sends a clear buying signal, investors should buy the stock in time, regardless of the previous selling price and whether it is a loss. Stop loss means that when the SAR indicator sends out a clear selling signal, investors should sell the stock in time and wait and see, regardless of the price of the stock they bought before, whether it is profitable or not.
Third, the advantages of SAR indicators
Synthetic aperture radar indicators have the following advantages:
1, the operation is simple, the buying and selling points are clear, and the buying and selling signals can be operated, which is especially suitable for small and medium-sized investors who have not entered the market for a long time, have little investment experience and lack trading skills.
2. The "bull stocks" suitable for continuous pull-up will not be easily washed by the main shock.
3. Bear stocks that are suitable for continuous decline will not be deceived by the rebound on the way down.
4. Suitable for short-term band operation.
5. Long-term use of SAR indicators can neither buy the lowest price nor sell the highest price, but it can avoid the danger of long-term lock-in and avoid missing the bull market.
Section 3 Special Criteria for Determining SAR Indicators
First, the working angle and running time of SAR indicator.
1. When the downward angle of SAR curve is greater than 45 degrees, it means that the empty side is relatively strong, the stock price drops rapidly, and the stock price will continue to fall. At this time, investors should resolutely hold the currency and wait and see, and should not easily grab the rebound.
2. When the SAR curve runs upward at an angle greater than 45 degrees, if the SAR curve runs upward for a long time, the stock price will increase too much in a short time, indicating that the power consumption of many parties is too large, and the stock price may reverse downward at any time. At this time, investors should pay close attention to the trend of SAR curve, and once the SAR indicators send out obvious selling signals, they should resolutely clear their positions and leave.
3. When the SAR curve runs upward at an angle greater than 45 degrees, if the SAR curve just runs upward, it means that many forces begin to accumulate and the stock price will continue to climb upward. At this point, investors should resolutely hold shares to rise.
4. When the downward angle of the SAR curve is less than 45 degrees, and the SAR curve continues to run downward for a long time (at least three months), once the stock price breaks through the SAR curve, it indicates that the long-term downward trend of the stock price may end and investors can start buying stocks on dips.
5. When the upward angle of the SAR curve is less than 45 degrees, if the SAR curve is downward for a long time (at least for more than 3 months), it means that the empty power has been exhausted, the multi-party power has begun to strengthen, a new round of stock price rise has begun, and the stock price will continue to rise. At this point, investors should resolutely hold shares to rise.
Secondly, the judgment of SAR indicators on different software.
At present, two typical domestic stock market analysis softwares, Qianlong. com and Analysys, have two different analysis interfaces for SAR indicators, so their analysis methods for SAR indicators are also different.
(1) Research and judgment of SAR indicators on analyst software
In analyst software, the composition of SAR index is relatively simple, mainly composed of SAR curve and stock price K-line. The judgment and analysis of SAR indicators in the analysis software has been mentioned above, so I won't discuss it here.
(2) Research on the SAR Index of Qianlong Software.
In Qianlong software analysis system, the stock price curve in SAR indicators is represented by American lines, and the SAR curve is composed of different red and green circles, and each circle corresponds to a trading cycle (such as one trading day, one week, one month, etc.). ). So in addition to the similar content mentioned above, its judgment mainly focuses on the relationship between the American line, the red circle and the green circle.
1, red circle
When Amtrak runs above the SAR curve, it shows that the current stock price is in a continuous upward trend. At this time, the circle of SAR indicator is red, indicating that investors can continue to hold stocks. After that, investors can use the number of SAR values and the existence of red circles as stop loss criteria. Once the stock closing price falls below the price marked by SAR, the red circle of SAR indicator disappears and the stock should be sold in time.
2. Green circle
When the stock price runs below the SAR curve, it shows that the current stock price is in a continuous downward trend. At this time, the circle of SAR indicator is green, indicating that investors should continue to wait and see mainly by holding money until the SAR indicator sends out a clear buying signal again.
In the fourth quarter, the actual combat skill index of SAR
The structure of SAR index is relatively simple, and the judgment method is concise and clear. It is a rare analytical tool for ordinary investors. In order to make the prediction results more accurate, this paper introduces the analysis methods of weekly SAR and weekly MACD. Taking (10,2,20) weekly SAR indicators and (26,12,9) weekly MACD in analyst software as examples, the trading and wait-and-see functions of SAR indicators are revealed.
I. buying and selling signals
1. After a long period of decline, the stock price K line is getting closer and closer to the green circle where the weekly SAR indicator is pressed. Once the K-line (or US-line) of the stock price breaks through the green circle of the weekly SAR indicator, and the weekly MACD indicator also forms a "golden cross" near the 0-line, it means that the downward trend of the stock price has ended and the stock price will reverse upward, which is a medium-and long-term buying signal issued by the weekly SAR indicator. At this time, investors should buy stocks in time. 2. When the stock price K-line runs above the weekly SAR indicator, once the stock price falls below the weekly SAR indicator, the weekly SAR curve changes from an upward red circle to a downward green circle, and at the same time, the weekly MACD indicator begins to form a "dead fork" in the middle and high position, which is a medium-and long-term selling signal sent by the weekly SAR indicator. At this point, investors should sell stocks in time.
Second, the signal of holding shares and holding money.
1. When the K-line of the stock price has been running upward depending on the red circle of the weekly SAR curve, and the MACD curve and DIF curve in the weekly MACD indicator are also running upward, it means that the upward trend of the stock price will continue. This is the mid-line shareholding signal issued by the weekly SAR indicator. As long as the red circle does not disappear, investors can hold shares all the way. 2. When the K-line of the stock price falls below the weekly SAR curve, it has been suppressed downward by the green circle of the weekly SAR curve, and the running direction of the MACD curve and the DIF curve in the weekly MACD indicator is also downward, which means that the medium and long-term downward trend of the stock price will continue. This is a long-term wait-and-see signal from the weekly SAR index. As long as the green circle does not disappear, investors should wait and see all the way.