Since the end of last year, the state has issued a purchasing and storage policy from the perspective of taking care of farmers' interests and stabilizing the cotton industry. The purchasing and storage policy is expensive and considerable, and the decline in cotton prices has stopped. For the purchasing and storage price per ton 12600 yuan, many people in the industry speculate whether the price positioning of the cotton market in the future will be based on this. Fall down. Obviously, it is unlikely. Under the vigorous promotion of the national purchasing and storage policy, the government has invested heavily in purchasing and storage of cotton, and set the minimum protection price for purchasing and storage enterprises to settle accounts for farmers. It is purely a macro-control rescue behavior, and the original intention gradually appeared after the policy was introduced. Last winter and this spring, cotton farmers benefited, and the planning policy of revitalizing the textile industry was introduced, which further restored the confidence of the industry. Judging from the current situation of the industry, stabilizing the market, stabilizing prices, stabilizing enterprises and stabilizing people's livelihood is the biggest politics at present, and it is unlikely that major materials will rise and fall again. Measures to stimulate the economy in many countries are being gradually implemented. Stand up. The rising power comes from the recovery of upstream products. It is a great advantage for the state to reduce the export tax rebate for textiles. The double reduction of foreign cotton planting area such as American cotton and domestic cotton has also brought long-term benefits to the upward trend of cotton prices. But this seems a bit optimistic, and the negative effects caused by the financial crisis are not a day or two. A large number of small textile enterprises have been crushed by market shocks and cannot recover in the short term. Although the current cotton sales price is on the rise, the ex-factory price of lint represented by grade 229 has never been higher than the national cotton purchasing and storage price. At present, the embarrassing situation of the whole industry may make this year's cotton market adjust around the fluctuation of national purchasing and storage prices.
Most of China's textile products are exported by foreign trade, and as we all know, China's textile exports have been hit the hardest in the still raging economic crisis. At the same time, the foreign textile market is also facing fatigue and downturn. The downstream is not smooth, how can domestic textile cotton prices continue to rise? This is a very simple truth.
1, characteristics of cotton spot market:
(1) The spot price of cotton fluctuates greatly. Since the opening of the cotton market in September 1999, the cotton price has fluctuated violently, which can be clearly seen from the spot price trend chart of cotton.
The picture shows the trend chart of China cotton price index.
(2) There are many factors that affect the spot price of cotton. This is basically the same as the futures market factor, which will be discussed in detail below.
(3) Large output and consumption. China is the country with the largest cotton production and consumption in the world, accounting for more than 25% of the world.
(4) The domestic inventory changes greatly. Generally speaking, when the ending inventory consumption ratio is about 30%, the market can basically achieve a balance between supply and demand. Below this level, the market will be short of resources.
(5) China has a large cotton import volume and great international influence. China imports a lot of cotton and exports a lot of cotton textiles, so the cotton price in China has a strong linkage with the world price.
(6) The annual supply and demand change greatly. Mainly because the domestic cotton planting area has changed greatly; The output changes greatly; Consumption changes greatly; Inventory changes greatly; The price has changed greatly.
2, the characteristics of cotton industry:
(1) Several firsts in China cotton industry. The output is the first, accounting for more than 1/4 of the world output; Consumption comes first, accounting for nearly1/2 of world consumption; Imports rank first, accounting for about 1/7 of the world output.
(2) Cotton producing areas are relatively concentrated. The main producing provinces are Xinjiang, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu and Anhui, accounting for about 80% of the country's total output.
(3) The cotton planting area fluctuates greatly. China's cotton planting area changes greatly, mainly affected by price. If the price is high this year, there will be all kinds of farmers next year; On the contrary, there are fewer types, and the adjustment range in this respect is also relatively large. This situation has increased the annual price fluctuation range and increased the risk of production and operation.
(4) Cotton consumption is relatively concentrated. The main sales provinces are Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Zhejiang and Hubei, accounting for about 66% of the total national consumption.
(5) Cotton consumption is growing rapidly. Since 1997/98, the domestic textile industry has developed rapidly, with an average growth of about 14%. The proportion of China's cotton consumption in the world has greatly increased.
(6) The pace of cotton marketization is fast. 1999 the cotton market has been fully liberalized; Join the WTO; At 20065438+0; In 2004, cotton futures trading was launched; The textile quota was abolished in 2005. Although the liberalization time is only eight years, the pace of marketization is still relatively fast.
(7) The fluctuation of cotton price has a great influence. The cotton industry chain is long, involving agriculture, textile industry and commerce. The production, circulation and processing of cotton involve many links, such as raw cotton planting, picking, cotton ginning, storage and spinning, involving tens of millions of agricultural families, with an agricultural population of about 65.438+0.5 billion, cotton ginning of 300,000 and textile workers of 6.5438+0.8 million.
(8) There are many factors that affect cotton prices, and cotton prices fluctuate greatly. From the production point of view, the change of cotton price makes the comparative benefit of cotton planting fluctuate greatly year by year, which affects farmers' planting in the next year, leads to the fluctuation of cotton planting area in that year, and then intensifies the fluctuation of cotton price. Since 1990, the highest cotton planting area in China is 6.5438+0.026 million mu, and the lowest is 55.95 million mu, nearly double the difference. Moreover, the weather, especially the rain and waterlogging in the harvest season, has a greater impact on cotton yield and quality.
The above brief introduction of cotton spot market and industry characteristics is helpful for us to further understand cotton price, analyze cotton spot market and conduct cotton industry research.
Analysis of external influencing factors of cotton
If we think that the relationship between supply and demand is the internal cause of cotton price changes, then we can classify various factors that affect cotton. First, the relationship between supply and demand is the internal cause, and second, the external cause of cotton, that is, other factors besides the relationship between supply and demand, such as policies, substitutes, international markets, etc.
1. Policy: Generally speaking, the impact of policies on prices is relatively short-term, but sometimes it is very intense. The policy factors that affect the spot price of cotton mainly include:
(1) The government's macro policies, including political and economic policies, such as agricultural policies, foreign trade policies, financial policies and securities policies, will have an impact on cotton futures prices. While analyzing the impact of major national macroeconomic policies on cotton futures prices, we should also analyze the impact of policies issued by the State Council and other functional departments on cotton prices.
(2) Industrial organization policy: The role of industrial organizations in the market economy is increasingly obvious, and its industrial policies sometimes affect the production scale, output, sales volume and relative price of cotton.
(3) National Reserve Plan: The auction, purchase quantity and purchase price of national reserve cotton determine the degree of influence on cotton prices.
(4) Agricultural subsidy policies and textile import and export policies of various countries. Textile export policy and cotton quota policy affect domestic cotton prices, and international cotton prices are closely related to cotton subsidies.