Viewpoint 1: Whoever wins will affect the main indicators of the current world economy. On the whole, the overall indicators will probably show an upward trend. The impact of the US presidential election on the economy mainly comes from two aspects: one is the direct economic policy adjustment of the US government brought about by the election results, and the other is the psychological expectation stability of the majority of American voters (they are investors and consumers). See point 2 for the influence of the former. Let's talk about the influence of the second aspect first. Generally speaking, the more stable the psychological expectation of voters, the lower the cost of judging the economic development prospect of the United States, or the more likely it is to reduce the probability of misjudgment and hesitation, which is conducive to the stability of the whole world market, whether it is the investment market or the consumer market, thus contributing to the rise of the whole world economic indicators. This American election is the first American presidential election after 9 1 1, and its turnout rate is the highest since 1968. The high participation rate not only shows that American voters care about politics, but also shows that they should take a stand on the future development prospects instead of taking a passive wait-and-see attitude. Generally speaking, the higher the participation of American voters, the higher the stability of their psychological expectations. Whether this expectation is positive or negative, as long as they make a statement, the uncertainty will be reduced, which will indirectly benefit economic development.
Viewpoint 2: No matter who is elected, the current major economic policies of the United States will not be adjusted in the short term, so it will not directly affect the trend of the world economy in the short term. Judging from this election, although the Democratic Party has always wanted to play the economic card to suppress George W. Bush, due to the profound impact of the 9 1 1 incident on American society, related anti-terrorism, the Iraq war and national security issues have always been the core issues in the campaign, and the issue campaign has always dominated the thinking of candidates from both parties, so the economic issue has never been the core campaign issue. So George W. Bush and John Kerry don't have much mature thinking on economic policy. It is estimated that whoever enters the White House will continue the existing relatively stable economic policy, so it will not have much direct impact on the world economy in the short term.
Viewpoint 3: If George W. Bush is elected, international oil prices may fall. Although George W. Bush represents large industrial interest groups, and most of them are industries with high energy consumption and great demand for world oil, he has been criticized by people of insight all over the world, including the United States, since he refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol. During Bush's tenure, he began to adjust his energy strategy in an attempt to reduce the demand for oil consumption in the United States. In the words of American Energy Secretary Yinling Khan, the Bush administration's energy strategy is supported by six pillars, namely, hydrogen, clean coal, safe nuclear power, nuclear fusion energy, energy efficiency and renewable resources. It can be seen that oil is no longer dominant in this ranking. Therefore, it can be predicted that the demand of the United States may decline in the future world oil market, thus lowering the oil price of the whole world.
Viewpoint 4: If Kerry is elected, economic issues such as RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade may face a more severe situation than at present. Due to the fundamental differences between China and the United States in social system, ideology and values, the economic relations between China and the United States, including Sino-US trade, RMB exchange rate and other economic issues, have always been greatly influenced by political factors, many of which should be economic issues with many political colors and considerations. Judging from the traditional ruling ideas of the United States and the Democratic Party, * * * and the Democratic Party are relatively more realistic and pay more attention to the realistic national strategic interests than the Democratic Party, and the Democratic Party may have more ideological considerations, as evidenced by President Clinton's linking China's MFN status with China's human rights at the beginning of 1993. In addition, judging from the American presidential elections since 1972, generally speaking, the successful re-elected presidents have relatively realistic and friendly policies toward China, and Sino-US relations are relatively stable. Therefore, if George W. Bush is elected, Sino-US trade may be relatively stable, at least it will not deteriorate. Moreover, there is another situation, that is, in this US presidential election, Sino-US relations and US China policy have fortunately not become the core issues of the campaign. Therefore, George W. Bush's "anti-China mission" may be reduced, and the possibility of his unfriendly trade policy towards China will be correspondingly reduced.