With the continuous decline of pig prices, the losses of farmers are further aggravated. At present, the head loss of most farmers in pig slaughtering is above 500 yuan. Due to the influence of the capital chain, some pig enterprises have accelerated the pace of slaughtering pigs, which further boosted the decline in pig prices.
Fortunately, we live in such a country. In order to promote the price of live pigs to return to a reasonable range, promote the smooth operation of the live pig market, and maintain the overall stability of the production capacity of live pigs and the normal rhythm of slaughtering, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, started the second batch of central frozen pork purchasing and storage during the year, guiding all localities to actively purchase and store.
The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, will continue to do a good job in reserve adjustment, and further increase the purchasing and storage efforts when necessary. I remember this sentence was said when the first batch of pork was purchased and stored this year, and it was only said a few days before the first purchase on March 3. On the evening of the 7th, less than a week later, China Storage Network issued the Notice on Matters Related to the Bidding of the Second Batch of Frozen Pork Reserved by the Central Government in 2022, saying that the bidding transaction for purchasing and storing this time was 38,000 tons.
The trading time is March/afternoon of kloc-0/0/3: 00 to afternoon of kloc-0/6: 00.
Yes, you are not mistaken. You not only increase your purchasing and warehousing efforts, but also purchase and warehousing within one week. The signal transmitted is clear and the purchasing and storage efforts are firm, which is a dawn for the depressed pig market.
At present, the low pig price is caused by the relative surplus of supply side and demand side.
At present, the marginal change of supply has a greater impact than the marginal change of consumption, and the main contradiction is still the relative surplus of supply. However, in the past year, the epidemic situation in COVID-19 has been frequent, and the consumption and catering end have also been significantly affected, which has an impact on the current pig price.
According to the current pig price trend and elimination situation, the overall stock of pigs is expected to slow down, and the stock of fertile sows is expected to accelerate the production capacity. It is expected that the pig price will stabilize in the second quarter, which means that there should be a slight rebound in the third quarter, but the overall range will not be too large.
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In short, farmers and pig enterprises should be psychologically prepared, and big pig enterprises should do a good job in transformation and development. In addition to selling assets to ensure cash flow, they should also lengthen the development of the industrial chain and withdraw in an orderly manner.
Because pig enterprises are large in scale and need more sustainable cash flow, selling some assets does not mean that the aquaculture industry will not develop in the future. In addition to asset conversion, the cooperation between pig enterprises is also expanding, such as the continuous improvement of enterprise integration, the strong alliance of leading enterprises and the development of new business models. Farmers can also learn new development models from them, so that they can move forward better in the torrent of the market, thus surviving in the dark and welcoming a bright future.
The systematic monitoring of pig price shows that among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 0, fell by 20 and fell by 6, and the falling areas accounted for 77% of all the monitoring, and the overall live pig market showed a "large-scale decline" trend.
# Today's latest live pig price #
(Source: Pig Price System)
On the whole, today's pig market shows a large-scale decline compared with yesterday, but this decline may slow down. On the one hand, due to the low price of pigs, the price of pigs in many places stays at the "5 prefix", and the slaughter losses of farmers are aggravated under high costs, and there is still a certain price-bearing sentiment; On the other hand, the second batch of pork storage will be opened, which will be increased to 38,000 tons at one time, boosting the confidence of farmers. Therefore, based on these two points, the downside of pig prices may be limited, and the market lacks the basis for a sharp decline.
Judging from the wholesale prices of white pigs in Beijing and Shanghai, the prices of white pigs in the wholesale markets in Beijing and Shanghai showed a downward trend, and the prices of white pigs in Beijing market fell by 0.5 yuan/kg, and the market trading enthusiasm was average; The average transaction price in Shanghai market has dropped, and the average price in some markets has dropped by 0. 15-0.40 yuan/kg. The market sales are difficult, the market transaction performance is poor, and many markets still have surplus goods.
According to the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, the pig price of breeding groups has shown a steady decline, and the phenomenon of pig price decline is still obvious. The decline in pig prices in major areas is more obvious, the sales of aquaculture enterprises are difficult, and the number of pigs listed by some leading enterprises has decreased and adjusted.
It is more difficult for slaughter enterprises in Northeast China, Hebei Province and Henan Province to purchase live pigs, and the procurement smoothness of slaughter enterprises in other regions is better, and the market price reduction sentiment is obviously weakened.
Market trend of live pig price tomorrow: Based on the analysis of recent factors in the live pig market, it is predicted that the live pig price will show a "steady decline" phenomenon tomorrow, and the decline rate will slow down.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the live pig market and grasp the market dynamics.