Whether the feed price rises or not depends on the trend of raw material prices, which is fundamentally inseparable from the supply and demand relationship in the market. According to official statistics, the planting area and yield of soybean meal in China decreased to varying degrees last year, and the planting area of corn increased. However, due to natural disasters and insect pests last year, the yield of corn was more or less affected. All these have aggravated the tension of raw material shortage in China market, and the price increase is expected.
The government has also actively taken corresponding measures to solve the problem of high prices of feed and feed raw materials. For example, in feed, a "work plan to reduce soybean meal and corn in feed" was put forward to optimize feed formula. However, due to the high technical requirements of this work, it is difficult to rely on corn and soybean meal, and this work needs to be promoted slowly.
In addition, in addition to the "feed grain reduction substitution", the government also proposed to expand the planting area of soybeans and corn, especially in the No.1 document of the Central Committee in 2022, it was mentioned that the strip compound planting of corn and soybeans should be promoted to increase the output of soybeans and corn and reduce the dependence of soybeans on imports.
In short, the reason why feed prices are rising is mainly because of the sharp increase in demand and the difficulty in improving supply in a short time. This problem does not mean that it will be solved for a while. Even imported feed raw materials, with the increase of import cost in recent two years, feed prices are hard to come down.
For the next feed price, Bian Xiao believes that its trend is still rising. According to industry analysis, feed prices will remain high in 2022, and there will not be much room for decline. What do you think of this?