Since the first quarter, the challenges and difficulties faced by China's economic growth have increased, especially in March, when the economy faced enormous pressure. However, the overall economic data in June 5438-February improved, and the growth rates of industrial production, investment, consumption and import and export were better than expected, which laid the foundation for economic growth in the first quarter.
Since March, outbreaks have occurred in Jilin, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places in China, and strict control measures have been implemented in some areas, which has greatly affected production and life, and the development of service industries such as catering and consumption has stagnated. In March, the PMI of manufacturing and service industries were both below the threshold, reflecting the decline in economic prosperity.
At the same time, with the development of fiscal and monetary policies, major projects around the country will be launched faster, and a series of measures such as tax refund, employment protection and people's livelihood will be strengthened, which is expected to play a certain supporting role.
Overall, investment and exports were relatively good in the first quarter, but consumption was dragged down by the epidemic, and GDP is expected to increase by 4.6% year-on-year.
Industry: It is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in March will slow down from 12.8% in the previous month to about 5.7%.
In March, the official PMI of the manufacturing industry decreased by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month to 49.5%, and fell below the threshold for the first time since last year 165438+ 10, which was obviously weaker than seasonality. Caixin manufacturing industry fell to 48. 1%, the lowest level since March 2020.
Among the high-frequency indicators, the industry operating rate is different. Among them, affected by the relaxation of policies such as Olympic production restriction, as of the fourth week of March, the operating rate of 247 blast furnaces nationwide recorded 78.2%, which generally rose to the same level last year; The starting performance of the tire has been improved. In March, the average weekly operating rate of automobile semi-steel tires rose from 3 1.4% last month to 69.7%, the highest level since May last year.
Overall, the operating rate in March was higher than that in February. However, affected by the epidemic, some enterprises in some areas temporarily cut production and stopped production, which affected the normal production and operation of upstream and downstream related enterprises. It is expected that the industrial added value will drop significantly in March.
Investment: It is estimated that the growth rate of fixed assets investment will drop from 12.2% to around 8% in the first quarter.
Infrastructure investment. It is expected to increase from 8. 1% to about 9%. With the warming of the climate and the improvement of the construction industry, major infrastructure projects in various places have been accelerated. In March, the business activity index rose by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month to 58. 1%. In March, the settlement price of rebar futures rose by 2.6% month on month, and the national cement price index rose by 1.8% month on month. However, in March, the estimated sales volume of excavators in the domestic market was 3 1 1,000 units, down about 58% year-on-year, and the sales volume of heavy trucks was 77,000 units, down 67% year-on-year. It can be seen that the epidemic situation and other factors dragged down the infrastructure.
Investment in manufacturing industry. It is expected to decrease from 20.9% to 15%. In March, the investment prospect index of BCI enterprises plummeted from 7 1. 1% to 62.6%, the lowest level since 2020 10. In the questionnaire survey of entrepreneurs in the first quarter of the central bank, the corporate profit index fell to 49.3%, the lowest level since the second quarter of 2020. From June 5438 to February, the year-on-year growth rate of total profits of industrial enterprises dropped to 5%. Due to the decline in both internal and external demand and the expected decline of entrepreneurs, it is expected that the growth rate of manufacturing investment will tend to decline.
Investment in real estate development. It is expected to decrease from 3.7% to about 1.0%. In March 100, the land area of large and medium-sized cities decreased by 45.3% year-on-year, and the decline continued to expand. In March, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 47.3% year-on-year, and the decline was also larger than last month. In March last year, the transaction volume in the land market was still considerable, and the deferred payment of land purchase fees still supported real estate investment.
According to the leading indicators, the export container freight rate index (CCFI) of China decreased by 4.9% in March, and the foreign trade container throughput of eight hub ports decreased by 1.2% in mid-March. In March, new export orders fell by 1.8 percentage points to 47.2%, the lowest level since 1 1 last year.
The Bureau of Statistics pointed out that international geopolitical conflicts have intensified recently, and some enterprises' export orders have been reduced or cancelled. In addition, the impact of the epidemic on port cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen is expected to slow down export growth.
On the whole, it is estimated that the export in March will be about US$ 255 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 5.9%.
Imports: It is estimated that in March, imports will reach US$ 235 billion, up about 2.7% year-on-year.
In March, the import index dropped by 1.7 percentage points to 46.9%, the lowest level since 10 last year. In March, the average import container freight index (CICFI) decreased 1%.
The growth rate of imports is still affected by two factors: on the one hand, due to the imbalance between supply and demand and geopolitics, commodity prices continue to rise. In March, the RJ/CRB price index rose for the third consecutive month, reaching the highest level since 20 14; On the other hand, domestic demand is relatively low. Infrastructure investment continues to play a supporting role, but overall consumption and real estate market are weak.
On the whole, it is estimated that the import in March will be about 235 billion US dollars, up about 2.7% year-on-year.
CPI: In March, CPI decreased by 0. 1% month on month, and increased by 1.3% year on year.
Food: The overall price of food was flat in March for two reasons: the price of pork was low and the price of fresh vegetables and fruits rose. The supply of pork is still sufficient, and the overall price of meat continued to fall in March. Some areas were affected by the epidemic, and the shortage of supply led to an increase in vegetable prices, which offset the price of pork. Among other foods, the price of eggs rose, the price of dairy products fell, and the prices of aquatic products and food remained stable.
In terms of non-food, the sudden epidemic in many places has led to a further decline in social demand, and the prices of service industries such as culture, entertainment, education, beauty salons and hotel accommodation are expected to fall. however
Energy prices are driven by the rise in international oil prices, and some durable consumer goods such as new energy vehicles are transmitted by upstream prices. The epidemic situation and imported inflation have led to mixed non-food prices, and it is expected that the overall chain will drop slightly.
It is estimated that CPI in March will be 0. 1% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year. Affected by the low base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate last month was higher than 0.9%.
PPI: It is estimated that the PPI in March will increase by 0.9% month-on-month and 8. 1% year-on-year.
In March, PPI continued to rise due to the rise of international commodities, but the year-on-year growth rate was low due to the influence of last year's base.
Domestic prices are facing strong external transmission pressure, the overall price of refined oil has risen, and the price of coal has increased greatly. The prices of ferrous metals and non-ferrous metals rose slightly, the downstream products went up and down, and the price of live pigs went down. In March, the PMI ex-factory price index recorded 56.7%, which was at the threshold of 50% for the third consecutive month.
It is estimated that the PPI will increase by 0.9% month-on-month in March, and the year-on-year growth rate will drop to 8. 1%, down from 8.8% last month.
Finance: It is estimated that RMB loans will increase by 2.6 trillion yuan in March, social financing will increase by 3.3 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of M2 will rise to 9.3%.
New credits. In terms of corporate loans, the overall production and operation activities of enterprises slowed down in March, and the financing demand of enterprises remained weak. In terms of residents' loans, the current residents' willingness to buy houses is low, and they have a strong wait-and-see mood. Medium and long-term loans are expected to continue to be lower than the growth rate of the same period last year; Frequent domestic epidemics have curbed household consumption and increased short-term loans. In the aspect of bill financing, the Finance Committee and the the State Council Standing Committee have repeatedly mentioned the "moderate growth" of new loans, requiring commercial banks to increase credit supply to the real economy. In March, the interest rate of bills rose, reflecting that banks tried to increase the loan amount by selling bills. It is estimated that RMB loans will increase by 2.6 trillion yuan in March.
New social integration. In terms of direct financing, the net financing of national debt increased by about 200 billion year-on-year, and the net financing of corporate bonds decreased by about 654.38+080 billion year-on-year. In terms of off-balance sheet financing, under the background of insufficient demand in the real economy, the demand for invoicing by enterprises is weak. Under the pressure of assessment at the end of the quarter, banks greatly reduced the increase of off-balance-sheet financing by discounting undiscounted bank acceptance bills into their balance sheets. It is estimated that the scale of new social financing in March will be about 3.3 trillion yuan.
M2 growth rate. In March, the central bank continued to do MLF in excess. From the perspective of reverse repurchase, monetary policy still protects the liquidity of the interbank market, and the overall market expectation is optimistic and the funds are stable. Supported by the declining base, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 balance is expected to rise to 9.3%.
It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate between 6.33 and 6.40 in April.
Looking forward to April, it is expected that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate in both directions, with a slight overall depreciation, with a fluctuation range of 6.33-6.40.
First, under the background that the Federal Reserve is about to start raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet, China's monetary policy and fiscal policy adhere to the principle of "focusing on me", and the yield spread of Sino-US 1 year government bonds has narrowed from 280bp in the previous period to about 40bp. With the rise of Libor dollar interest rate, the implied interest rate of domestic dollar/RMB swap has also increased significantly. With the narrowing of the spread between China and the United States, the RMB will face certain depreciation pressure against the US dollar.
Second, external risks have eased, negotiations on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis have made progress, and the demand for safe havens in the US dollar has declined, which has cushioned the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar to some extent. However, the euro rebounded in the context of the sharp depreciation in the previous period, which put pressure on the CFETS index of RMB.
Third, Sino-US relations are disturbed by the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, and there are still many uncertainties. On March 19, the heads of state of China and the United States made a video call and exchanged views on key issues, which played a certain role in communication. Subsequently, the United States exempted China from 352 tariffs on goods. However, under the huge differences between Russia and Ukraine, the future of Sino-US relations is still full of uncertainty, which will also become an important factor to increase the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate.
Foreign reserves: It is estimated that foreign exchange reserves will decrease by 30 billion US dollars to 3183.8 billion US dollars by the end of March.
In March, the US dollar index rose 1.7 1%. Among the major non-US dollar currencies, the yen, euro and pound depreciated by 5.84%, 1.36% and 2.08% respectively. Bond yields in major countries rose and prices fell. Considering the influence of exchange rate conversion and asset price changes, the scale of foreign exchange reserves has declined.
In March, the PMI index of China's new export orders decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 47.2%, and the supporting role of exports to foreign exchange reserves will be weakened; Under the background of Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Fed's interest rate hike, internal and external liquidity brings negative feedback pressure. In March, the net outflow of northbound funds was 456,543.8 billion yuan.
(Team member: Wang Jingwen Ying Sun Xiwen Ying)
This paper comes from the research of China People's Bank.
Related Q&A: Related Q&A: What is off-balance sheet financial management? Thank you for inviting me. The term "off-balance-sheet financing" is often found in statistical reports of financial data, but in fact, off-balance-sheet financing is not exclusive to financial institutions. For example, Fortune magazine said: "Among the top 500 companies in the world, companies that do not use off-balance sheet financing are extremely rare". Off-balance sheet financing is a kind of financing method with strong concealment and asymmetric investment and financing information. In view of the imperfection of the current regulatory system and the loopholes in the current accounting standards, off-balance sheet financing provides enterprises with strong financing needs with an opportunity to "scratch the ball", fills the unsatisfactory fund gap filled by on-balance sheet financing, and becomes a cornucopia of financiers.
What is off-balance sheet financing?
The "table" in off-balance sheet financing refers to the balance sheet, so off-balance sheet financing is actually off-balance sheet financing. In other words, financing behavior will not cause the increase of assets in the balance sheet, nor will it cause the increase of liabilities and owners' equity. Broadly speaking, all financing activities that have a significant impact on the operating results, financial status and cash flow of enterprises and are not included in the balance sheet belong to off-balance sheet financing.
Why does the company choose off-balance sheet financing?
For enterprises, the motivation of off-balance sheet financing mainly includes the following aspects:
1. Optimize the financial situation of enterprises
Through off-balance-sheet financing, enterprises even transfer off-balance-sheet financing to off-balance-sheet, which will optimize the financial situation of enterprises, obviously improve the quality of balance sheets and make them more attractive to potential investors.
2. Expand the operating results of enterprises
The funds raised and assets formed by off-balance sheet financing are not directly reflected in the balance sheet, but the expenses formed and the operating results obtained are reflected in the income statement, which expands the operating results of the enterprise.
3. Avoid borrowing restrictions
In order to protect their rights and interests, creditors of enterprises often set various restrictions by adding debts to enterprises, such as not exceeding a certain debt ratio. In order to expand financial leverage within the above limits, enterprises will seek off-balance-sheet financing methods to meet their own capital needs and avoid borrowing restrictions.
4. Avoid the loss of book value
The assets purchased by the company are recorded in the balance sheet and depreciated on schedule. Generally speaking, the market value of second-hand assets declines much faster than the book value. If a company updates its equipment before its assets are fully depreciated, the part whose book value exceeds the resale price must be recorded as a decrease in revenue in the current fiscal year of the transaction. Most financial directors do not want this situation to affect the income of that year. At this time, off-balance sheet financing can play a role, because assets are not listed on the balance sheet and are treated as expenses. Especially for those assets with fast depreciation and high value, off-balance sheet financing operating lease is a good solution.
What are the specific ways to realize off-balance sheet financing?
1, direct financing
Financing in the form of special loans that do not transfer the ownership of assets. For example, business activities such as leasing, consignment goods, and processing with supplied materials. It does not involve the transfer and flow of asset ownership, and it does not need to be reflected in financial statements in accounting, but the right to use assets has indeed been transferred to financing enterprises, which can meet the needs of enterprises to expand their business scale and alleviate the shortage of funds.
Operating lease is a classic off-balance sheet direct financing method. According to the different economic essence, leasing can be divided into operating leasing and financing leasing. The current accounting standards only require the balance sheet to reflect the assets and liabilities of financial leasing. According to Article 6 of Accounting Standards for EnterprisesNo. 1. 2 1, if it meets one or more of the following criteria, it shall be deemed as a financial lease, otherwise it shall be deemed as an operating lease:
(1) When the lease expires, the ownership of the leased assets is transferred to the lessee.
(2) The lessee has the option to purchase the leased assets, and the purchase price is expected to be much lower than the fair value of the leased assets when exercising this option, so it can be reasonably determined that the lessee will exercise this option on the lease start date.
(3) Even if the ownership of the assets is not transferred, the lease term accounts for most of the service life of the leased assets.
(4) The present value of the lessee's minimum lease payment on the lease start date is almost equal to the fair value of the leased assets on the lease start date; The present value of the lessor's minimum lease payment on the lease start date is almost equal to the fair value of the leased assets on the lease start date.
(5) The leased assets are special in nature, and only the lessee can use them if there are no major changes.
In reality, the lessee often tries to conclude special lease terms with the lessor (sometimes at the expense of giving up some interests) to avoid the threshold of financial leasing in the above accounting standards. For example, the lease term will be slightly shorter than the fixed number of years defined in the guidelines, so that although the risks and benefits related to the ownership of leased assets have basically been transferred to the lessee from an economic point of view, that is, it is actually an agreement on financial leasing, the lessee can still regard it as an operating lease, thus achieving the purpose of off-balance sheet financing.
2. Indirect financing
This is a financing method for another enterprise to replace its debt. The most common way is to establish and invest in a subsidiary, or to replace the liabilities of the parent company with the liabilities of the subsidiary or subsidiary.
Joint ventures are also common. Specifically, if an enterprise holds a considerable amount of owner's rights and interests of other enterprises, but does not reach the holding level, the latter is called an unincorporated enterprise. Because enterprises do not control unincorporated enterprises, they only need to recognize long-term investments as assets, and do not need to reflect the liabilities of unincorporated enterprises on the balance sheet. Enterprises arrange investment structure in non-corporate enterprises, engage in off-balance-sheet business, avoid the problem of report consolidation and realize off-balance-sheet financing.
Another popular form is called Special Purpose Entity (SPV), that is, enterprises set up new enterprises as sponsors, which are called special purpose entities, and their business activities basically serve the interests of sponsors. Generally speaking, if a company can control the financial interests of another entity (usually referring to holding more than 50% of the voting shares of the other party), then this entity should be included in the scope of company merger. For SPV, the relevant accounting regulations are quite special. As long as the third party independent of the sponsor owns more than 97% of the equity capital of SPV, it will become the nominal owner of SPV. Even if the sponsor invests the remaining 97% of the equity capital, it can still apply off-balance sheet treatment to SPV. Although companies and special purpose companies do not consolidate statements, there are generally agreement controls or other special arrangements between them. Usually, the liabilities of SPV are quite high, and the lower the owner's equity, the better. Although the promoters have little or no ownership rights, they bear all the risks.
The key to judge whether SPV means constitutes off-balance sheet financing is whether the enterprise will continue to get involved in assets after transferring assets to SPV by agreement. In accounting, the right to continue to maintain risks and interests related to assets is called "continuous involvement". If an enterprise transfers assets to SPV by agreement, but continues to participate in assets, then this SPV means belongs to off-balance sheet financing. For example, Enron sold some junk assets to SPV company, got a sum of money and continued to set foot in assets. Enron has no controlling interest in SPV, so it does not consolidate the statements, and the financing obtained by SPV is not reflected in Enron's statements. However, due to the problem of continuous involvement, the risk of junk assets actually remains in Enron. Enron used this method to hide its junk assets, making the seemingly good statements inherently fragile. As a result, when junk assets broke out, it had an impact on Enron's own statements, and a series of chain reactions followed. This incident directly led to the change of American accounting standards.
3. Transfer liabilities
Transferring liabilities means that an enterprise transfers liabilities from the on-balance sheet to the off-balance sheet. This transfer can be realized by discounting bills receivable, selling accounts receivable with recourse, signing after-sale repurchase agreements and asset securitization.
(1) Bills receivable reflect the financing behavior that an enterprise borrows from a bank with an unexpired bill receivable, and the bank pays the balance to the enterprise after deducting the discount interest for a certain period according to the receivable amount of the bill. The nature of bills receivable is mortgage loan, which is essentially to use bills receivable as mortgage loan.
(2) The sale of accounts receivable with recourse means that the enterprise sells the accounts receivable to a third party (such as financial institutions and investment companies) to raise funds, and at the same time gives the buyer the right of recourse to the seller when the accounts cannot be recovered. Therefore, in essence, the sale of accounts receivable with recourse is actually a loan secured by accounts receivable, which is similar to the discounted nature of accounts receivable and is not a real sale.
(3) After-sale repurchase means that the seller signs a contract with the buyer while selling the goods, and agrees to repurchase the goods according to the terms of the contract in the future. After-sale repurchase is essentially a mortgage loan. By selling products, the seller enables the buyer to obtain the pledge right of the seller's assets in the form of ownership. In other words, after-sale repurchase is fake sales and real financing, but it is not disclosed in the balance sheet, thus realizing off-balance sheet financing.
(4) Asset securitization refers to the process of converting assets that lack liquidity but can generate predictable and stable cash flow into securities that can be sold and circulated in the financial market through certain structural arrangements. Its operation mode is usually that the financier transfers the ownership of an asset to a financial institution, and the financial institution issues bonds to investors in the bond market with the future income of the asset as the guarantee. Although asset securitization is a financing activity in economic essence, from a legal point of view, it is only a transfer of assets, so it is not required to be reflected on the balance sheet. Of course, the process of asset securitization is very complicated, involving many legal, foreign exchange management, accounting treatment and other issues. Securitized assets usually include: housing mortgage loans, credit cards, auto loans, accounts receivable, lease receivables, etc.
4. Innovative financial instruments
Or derivative financial instruments. In recent years, innovative financial instruments have exploded, mainly including futures contracts, option contracts, forward contracts and swap contracts. Due to the change of environment, the intensification of competition and the need to control risks, the momentum of financial instrument innovation will continue unabated. However, the formulation of accounting standards has not kept pace with the innovation of financial instruments. According to the current accounting standards, most of the financial assets and liabilities generated by the use of innovative financial instruments cannot be reflected in the financial statements, but can only be disclosed in the notes to the statements.
Off-balance sheet financing should be properly and reasonably used.
According to the current accounting standards, it is feasible for enterprises to carry out off-balance sheet financing, which has a certain impact on the financial situation and the promotion of business activities. If enterprises know how to use off-balance sheet financing skills reasonably, they can promote the development of enterprises and bring benefits. However, as an active and flexible financing channel, off-balance sheet financing may also have the risk of deceiving the public and threatening the interests of business owners and creditors. The Enron incident in America is a typical case.
Therefore, in order to safeguard the fairness of the national market economy and protect the interests of investors, the regulatory authorities may think that off-balance-sheet financing conceals important financial information of enterprises and may mislead information users, thus requiring the accounting standard-setting institutions to revise accounting standards, confirm that a transaction must be handled according to its economic essence, reduce off-balance-sheet financing items and incorporate them into the balance sheet as much as possible. In addition, assets and liabilities arising from off-balance sheet financing are not listed in the balance sheet, which may seriously affect the decision-making of relevant stakeholders and lead to unnecessary losses. Therefore, according to the principle of full disclosure, the contractual obligations and contingent liabilities arising from these financing activities should be explained in the notes to the statements. Strict disclosure of financial statements will greatly reduce the impact of off-balance sheet financing on the authenticity and integrity of financial statements, which is conducive to the use of financial statements by different stakeholders of enterprises.
Enterprises should actively and cautiously explore the advantages and disadvantages of off-balance sheet financing, and make rational use of off-balance sheet financing through scientific analysis methods and reasonable decision-making procedures to better serve the long-term development of enterprises. At the same time, we should attach importance to the role of laws and regulations, reasonably standardize the accounting treatment of off-balance sheet financing, adhere to the principle of prudence, try our best to improve the transparency of enterprise information disclosure through internalization, and maintain the stable development of the market.
I hope I can help you.