Purchase hedging operation of corn consumer enterprises
If you appear in the futures market as a corn consumer, such as feed processing enterprises, starch processing enterprises and alcohol processing enterprises, they act as buyers in the corn spot market, hoping to buy the cheapest raw materials and minimize the cost. If the price of corn continues to rise, the purchasing cost of processing enterprises will also continue to rise. In order to ensure profits, enterprises can only raise prices, but this affects sales. Therefore, processing enterprises can buy hedging in the futures market to avoid the losses caused by rising corn. Generally speaking, these enterprises buy hedging in the corn market, which can be divided into the following three situations:
Example 4 A feed enterprise discovered on July 1 day that the price of corn at that time was 1280 yuan/ton, and the market showed signs of shortage. It is estimated that in September 1 enterprise inventory has dropped to a low point and needs to be replenished. Enterprises are worried that prices will rise in September. Therefore, feed enterprises bought 1 00 September corn contract at the price of 1300 yuan/ton on July/0/day in Dalian Commodity Exchange. The following results were produced:
Result 1: On September 1 day, the prices of corn futures and spot markets both rose, and the increase of futures market was greater than that of spot market. Once, feed enterprises bought corn 1000 tons in the spot market, and the purchase price was 1350 yuan/ton; At the same time, the September contract was sold in the futures market at the price of 1380 yuan/ton 100. The changes in profit and loss are as follows:
Spot market futures market
July 1, corn price 1280 yuan/ton, September purchase 100 corn contract.
The price is 1300 yuan/ton.
September 1 day, buy 1000 tons of corn.
Price 1350 yuan/ton, corn sold in September 100 contract.
The price is 1380 yuan/ton.
Change in profit and loss (1280-1350) x1000 =
-70,000 yuan (1380-1300) x100x10 =
80 thousand yuan
Profit and loss change = futures profit and loss change+spot profit and loss change = 80,000 +(-7) million = 1 10,000 yuan
Through the above cases, we can see that:
First, enterprises buy hedging operations first in the futures market.
Second, the forward market, the basis weakened, from -20 yuan to -30 yuan. As an enterprise's buying hedging operation, the hedger is completely protected because the futures profit is greater than the spot loss.
Third, feed enterprises make up for the loss of 70 thousand yuan in the spot market with the profit of 80 thousand yuan in the futures market by buying hedging in the futures market. If enterprises do not hedge in the futures market, the purchase price of feed enterprises will decrease when the spot price falls, but once the price rises, enterprises will suffer huge losses and the purchase cost will increase. Therefore, the purchase hedging of feed enterprises safely avoids the huge risk of spot market fluctuation. Whether this fluctuation is favorable or unfavorable, the lock-in of procurement cost and future profit is the real significance for enterprises to obtain normal profits.
Second, if the spot market price rises more than the futures market in the above example, the cost obtained is different from the above example. On September 1 day, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, the price of corn in the spot market soared, and the quotation reached 1380 yuan/ton, while the futures price rose slightly in the same period. Therefore, feed enterprises bought 1 000 tons of corn in the spot market on September1day, and sold 65438+ in the futures market. The changes in profit and loss are as follows:
Spot market futures market
July 1, corn price 1280 yuan/ton, September purchase 100 corn contract.
The price is 1300 yuan/ton.
September 1 day, buy 1000 tons of corn.
Price 1380 yuan/ton, corn sold in September 100 contract.
The price is 1380 yuan/ton.
Change in profit and loss (1280-1380) x1000 =
-65438+ ten thousand yuan (1380-1300) x100x10 =
80 thousand yuan
Profit and loss change = futures profit and loss change+spot profit and loss change = 80,000 +(- 10) million =-20,000.
Through the above cases, we can see that:
First, the basis has a strong feature from negative to positive, from -20 yuan to 0 yuan. As an enterprise's buying hedging operation, the hedger is only partially protected because the losses outweigh the gains.
Second, due to the sharp rise in the spot market, the procurement cost of enterprises has increased, resulting in relative losses. However, if enterprises do not hedge in the futures market, their losses will be even greater. For example, in this case, if it is not hedged, the enterprise will lose 654.38+10,000 yuan; On the contrary, he did buy hedging, and the loss of the enterprise was reduced to 20 thousand. Therefore, hedging can reduce the loss of enterprises to a low point, even if the basis change is well grasped, the hedging effect will be more ideal.
Result 3: Because the spot market is in short supply and the price is rising, the state has issued some macro policies to curb the excessive rise of corn prices, which leads to a downward trend of corn prices. By September 1 day, feed enterprises had purchased corn1000t in the spot market at the price of 1200 yuan/ton, and sold corn100t in the futures market at the price of12/0 yuan/ton. The profit and loss changes are as follows.
Spot market futures market
July 1, corn price 1280 yuan/ton, September purchase 100 corn contract.
The price is 1300 yuan/ton.
September 1 day, buy 1000 tons of corn.
Price 1200/ ton, corn sold in September 100 contract.
The price is 12 10 yuan/ton.
Change in profit and loss (1280-1200) x1000 =
80,000 yuan (1380-1210) x100x10 =
-90,000 yuan
Profit and loss change = futures profit and loss change+spot profit and loss change = (-9) million+80,000 yuan =- 1 10,000 yuan
Through the third result, we can see that:
First, in the forward market, the basis is stronger. From -20 yuan to-10 yuan, the narrowing of the basis is not conducive to buying hedging, and the loss is greater than the profit, and the hedger is partially protected.
Secondly, the spot market price of corn has declined under the influence of national macro-control, which makes feed enterprises have greater profits in buying corn in the spot market. Although the position of feed enterprises in the futures market has caused great losses to enterprises, this defensive protection operation still helps enterprises to guard against risks, especially to eliminate risks that are not conducive to spot price changes, and finally lock in procurement costs.