# Pig #
It is expected that the pig price in Zhong Da will be further suppressed after the slaughterhouse is fully started, because the main demand in the market is standard pigs. Yesterday, Dahongmen, Kaifeng, Henan, opened the door for the first day and the task was full the next day.
The pig market is not exactly the same every year, and the fluctuation range is also different. The price of live pigs needs time, and it needs to be "self-cultivation" to recover, but on the other hand, the influence of market and emotion cannot be ruled out.
First, there will definitely be capital to speculate and tell stories after the year, which is understandable. But the rise and fall of futures is an expectation of future pig prices, and its essence is based on the analysis and judgment of the current market.
Even if it deviates from the spot in the later period, it will leave early and return late.
Due to the development of the Internet, pig farmers know about futures, but it is not suitable for our pig farmers. Don't be led by capital, study the spot carefully, otherwise the more you collect, the more confused you will be.
Second, continue to collect meat. You know, in the first half of the year, due to the sluggish market, my mother did too much work to protect the relatively stable pig market. Although she has been "laughing" at the poor effect of collecting meat, she finally brought the mood of the pig market to life.
Third, the data of fertile sows, last year, especially in July, everyone questioned the accuracy of this data. At that time, Bian Xiao explained this data in a dialectical way. Why? Because this is related to supply and demand, if supply really exceeds demand, then the data is relatively true. If the supply is less than the demand, then there is something wrong with this data.
However, it is precisely because of this kind of emotion that people who started selling pigs stopped selling, and a large number of secondary fattening began to enter the market. After the evolution of time and the suppression of leverage, the inaccurate data seems to have been "verified", and there has been a shortage of supply, which has led to an increase in pig prices.
Refer to the latest pig selling quotation of national pig farmers on June 5438-1October 26th, 2023.
Jiangsu Xinghua 280 kg 8. 1 yuan/kg; Shandong Jining Rencheng 260 kg 8 yuan/kg; Heilongjiang Daqing standard pig 7 yuan/kg, medium pig 6.5 yuan/kg; Hainan standard pig 9.9 yuan/kg; 8.5 yuan, Anhui Lu 'an/kg; 7.8 yuan, Xingtai, Hebei/kg; Shandong Changyi 8. 1 yuan/kg; Shandong Yucheng 8. 1~8.2 yuan/kg; Jilin Nong 'an 7.2 yuan/kg; Henan Gongyi 240~3 10 kg 7.5~7.6 yuan/kg, 300~400 kg 7 yuan/kg; 8 yuan/kg, Lianyungang, Jiangsu; Liaoning Heishan 7.2~7.5 yuan/kg; Liaoning Beizhen 7. 1~7.2 yuan/kg; Jilin Changling 7.2 yuan/kg; Sichuan Jianyang 270~280 kg 7.5 yuan/kg; Changzhi, Shanxi 7. 1 yuan/kg;
Heilongjiang Andabiao pig 7. 1 yuan/kg, Zhong Da pig 6.9 yuan/kg; 7.2 yuan/kg, 250~300 kg 7.5 yuan/kg; Jilin Gongzhuling 230 standard pig 7~7. 1 yuan/kg, 250 kg standard pig 7.3~7.4 yuan/kg; Liaoning Changtu small standard pig 7. 1~7.2 yuan/kg, over 280 kg 7.2~7.3 yuan/kg, big pig 7. 1~7.2 yuan/kg; Liaoning Tieling standard pig 7. 1 yuan/kg, medium pig 7.2~7.4/ kg, big pig 7. 1~7.2 yuan/kg; 7.2 yuan/kg, Dalian, Liaoning; Liaoning Shenyang 2 10~300 kg standard pig 7~7. 1 yuan/kg; Shanxi Datong 7.2~7.3 yuan/kg; Shanxi Jinzhong 240 kg 7.5 yuan/kg; Hebei Xinji standard pig 7.7~7.8 yuan/kg;
The hog market is afraid of consistency.
Now the market is full of predictions about how the market will go this year. Because of this, most people choose to make the same behavior pattern at the same time, which is also the most terrible. What we have to do first is to predict the predictions of most people and understand the consistency. Then we can predict the predictions of others and have a chance to win, otherwise we will become a wave of people with consistency.
Strong expectations, weak reality
The first half of 2023 should be full of excitement, after all, it has been three years, but after half a year, you will find that most people may not get much, because consumption and exports will be lower than expected, and consumers in the United States, Europe and China will have no money, so Bian Xiao thinks that the first high-priced range of live pig prices will appear in the first half of this year.
We need to respect the market, trends and common sense when crossing the recession cycle.
The current environment is suitable for some enterprises to attack at low cost and take the opportunity to expand, which is also the fundamental reason why we see that a large number of free-range households are ready to withdraw from the market, but the group farms are still expanding.
But there are also some that are suitable for defense, survive at a reduced cost, and then wait for an opportunity to attack.
It is a bit difficult for us to find opportunities in this ambiguity, but it is also an opportunity because of this, so I personally think that secondary fattening is the way out for pig farmers this year.