"Money": The financial crisis hit the whole world. However, this phenomenon cannot but arouse people's deep concern: at present, there are problems in the pricing mechanism of the international crude oil market and the coordination between crude oil exporting countries and consuming countries. Affected by this, the world energy security is facing hidden dangers, and oil prices have become an uncertain factor facing the world economy, which is not good for both crude oil exporting countries and importing countries. In short, the sharp rise and fall of oil prices is a problem that may cause "anything is possible".
In the past few years, with a large number of speculative funds entering the international crude oil futures market, the crude oil market has increasingly shown a trend of "financialization". As a result, the pattern of oil price trend dominated by supply and demand in history has been broken, and oil prices have been increasingly affected by short-term speculative capital flows, thus frequently rising and falling.
The rise and fall of oil prices this year reflects the lack of coordination between crude oil exporting countries and importing countries. For the soaring oil price, the United States, European Union member countries and so on believe that the output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is insufficient, while the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries emphasizes the influence of market speculation. The two sides blamed each other and could not reach an agreement on ensuring the long-term stable supply of crude oil in the international market. Crude oil importing countries are naturally relieved by the sharp drop in oil prices, but the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is anxious and is planning new measures to reduce production and protect prices.
Establishing a fair and reasonable crude oil pricing mechanism through dialogue and coordination is not only in the interests of the two countries, but also conducive to the stable development of the world economy.
The subprime mortgage crisis, which originated in the United States in the summer of 2007, continued to develop in the first quarter of 2008, and triggered turmoil in major global financial markets. By March, the crisis reached its first peak as Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the United States, was on the verge of bankruptcy and was finally acquired by JPMorgan Chase. In April, the US subprime mortgage crisis once ushered in a turning point. In the same month, after more than half a year of turmoil, the US, Europe and Japan stock markets showed signs of short-term stabilization.
But in July, the financial market situation in the United States deteriorated again. With the plight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two major mortgage giants in the United States, a new round of turmoil has emerged in the US financial market. By September, the crisis reached its second peak. In just a few weeks, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taken over by the U.S. government, Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States, went bankrupt, Merrill Lynch, the third largest investment bank, was acquired by Bank of America, and the insurance giant American International Group accepted huge government assistance ... The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States eventually evolved into a full-scale financial crisis.
At the same time, the financial crisis quickly spread to Europe across the Atlantic. European financial institutions such as Britain, Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Belgium and Iceland have been in trouble one after another, and the stock market has been violently turbulent. Especially in Iceland, a small Nordic country, due to the abnormal development of its financial industry relative to the overall economy, the whole country is almost on the verge of bankruptcy under the impact of the crisis. The financial crisis has also begun to hit some emerging and developing economies, especially Ukraine, Hungary and Pakistan, which have to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund.
Under the impact of the financial crisis, the growth rate of the world economy has obviously slowed down. As of the third quarter of 2008, the economies of the euro zone and Japan have experienced negative growth for two consecutive quarters, marking a formal recession. After experiencing negative growth in the third quarter, the situation in the fourth quarter may be even worse, and it is only a matter of time before the US economy falls into recession. With the economic deterioration of developed countries, the trade and investment of developing countries are also affected, and the deterioration of their external economic environment is gradually being transmitted to the domestic economy. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the world economic growth rate will be only 3.7% in 2008, significantly lower than 5.0% in 2007 and 5. 1% in 2006, and the world economic growth rate will further drop to 2.2% in 2009.
Facing the financial crisis, G20 leaders held a summit on financial markets and world economy in Washington on June 5438+0 15, and reached a consensus on how to deal with the financial crisis. Developed economies such as the United States and Europe have successively announced large-scale rescue measures and economic stimulus programs, and emerging and developing economies such as China have also announced measures to ensure economic growth. The total amount of bailout funds promised by the United States is close to $7 trillion, accounting for about half of its GDP. EU member states have already issued rescue plans totaling more than 2 trillion US dollars, and announced economic stimulus plans totaling 200 billion euros. China has taken measures to further expand domestic demand and ensure rapid economic growth, and plans to invest 4 trillion yuan in the next two years. "Grain": Facing the Challenge of Food Security
In the first half of 2008, with the soaring international food prices, food crises occurred in many countries, and world food security faced new challenges.
Since 2002, international food prices have been rising, but in recent years, the rate of increase has obviously accelerated. According to statistics of relevant UN agencies, international food prices rose by 42% in 2007 alone. In 2008, international food prices continued to climb. The main reasons for soaring food prices are: the increase in global food demand, the competition for food resources by biofuel development, the increase in food production and transportation costs driven by soaring oil prices, the decline in food production caused by climate change, and market speculation.
In the second half of 2008, although the prices of grain, oil and other commodities dropped sharply, they were still at a relatively high level. According to FAO's statistics, the international grain price dropped by 50% at the end of the year compared with the beginning of the year, but compared with a few years ago, the prices of major grains in the world are still generally high. From June 5 to 10, the FAO food price index, which reflects the trend of international food prices, was 28% higher than the same period in 2006.
With the deepening of the financial crisis, world food security is facing new challenges. World Bank President Zoellick pointed out in June 10: "When people in developed countries are mainly concerned about the financial crisis, many people forget that a' human crisis' is spreading rapidly in developing countries, pushing the poor to the edge of survival. The financial crisis will only make it more difficult for developing countries to protect the most vulnerable groups from rising food and fuel prices. " According to the statistics of the World Bank, in 2008, the number of malnourished people in the world increased by 44 million, reaching 967 million. The World Bank also pointed out that due to the financial crisis, the economic growth rate of developing countries will obviously slow down in 2009, global trade will shrink for the first time since 1982, and the remittance income of developing countries will also decline. Affected by this, the rural economy and farmers' livelihood in many developing countries will be threatened.
The international community is taking various measures to deal with this problem, including expanding food aid, helping developing countries to increase food production and establishing a fairer international food trade system.
"Oil": The sharp rise and fall of oil prices caused anxiety.
The oil price in 2008 is also worthy of attention. At the beginning of the year, driven by market speculation, dollar depreciation and geopolitical tension, the oil price in new york market broke through the 100 mark for the first time in history, and then continued to rise, and reached a record high of 147.27 USD per barrel on July.
However, since mid-July, with the intensification of the financial crisis, the growth rate of the world economy has obviously slowed down, and the market has turned to worry about the decline in demand for crude oil. Affected by this, a large number of speculative funds withdrew from the crude oil futures market, and oil prices began to fall sharply again. By the end of the year, the futures price of new york crude oil remained at around $45 per barrel, which was 2/3 lower than the peak in the middle of the year.
The surge in oil prices is really staggering. The soaring oil price has made crude oil exporting countries get rolling petrodollars, and crude oil importing countries have paid a huge price for it. With the collapse of oil prices, the income of crude oil exporting countries has fallen sharply, while crude oil importing countries have gained a breathing space.