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What is the relationship between thread and hot coil in futures? Why are their trends very similar?
There is a hot metal dispute between rebar and hot coil. Theoretically, if the profit of rebar is higher than that of hot coil, steel mills will increase the flow of molten iron to rebar, resulting in an increase in rebar output and a decrease in hot coil output. But in fact, even if the profit of hot coil is not as good as that of rebar, it will not promote the flow of hot metal to rebar unless the loss of hot coil is serious, forcing enterprises to reduce production. ?

The price of hot coil and wire has been deviated. Judging from the main downstream industries of the two major varieties, real estate investment is still resilient. Under the influence of the construction period of 5438+ 10 June, the demand of the whole construction steel market is relatively strong, and the infrastructure investment continues. There is still some downward pressure on manufacturing investment in the later period. On the one hand, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises has continued to decline this year.

Hot coil is stronger than thread, so it is profitable to do more hot coil.

The national * * * issued local bonds of 41800 million yuan, exceeding the same period last year. At the same time, special bonds of 1, 41.200 million yuan were added, which continued to benefit infrastructure projects, thus benefiting terminal steel. Economic data has driven the mood to improve, and it is expected that consumption will be better in the near future than last year. In terms of varieties, the output of hot coils is high but the cumulative inventory is small, indicating that consumption is improving. In recent years, the overall inventory pressure of steel is relatively high, and the performance of hot coil is better than that of thread. In addition, the profit of hot coil has fallen to the low level in previous years, while the profit of thread is still good compared with previous years. Usually, the profits of steel mills begin to climb in the second half of the first quarter, so it is recommended to make more profits from hot coils.

What is the relationship between thread and coil?

Many people don't understand the relationship between thread and hot coil. In fact, their relationship is competitive. Market supply and demand determine the price, and upstream and downstream costs restrict the price level. Low-cost products may also have higher profit margins. From the technological point of view, the cost of hot coil is about 100- 150 yuan higher than that of rebar. Due to the different relationship between supply and demand, the price trend of rebar and hot coil is also different. Years ago, the price of hot coil rose sharply due to insufficient specifications, which was stronger than that of rebar, and the coil difference changed from negative to positive. Affected by the epidemic situation, the market's expectation of hot coil is far worse than that of rebar, which leads to the expansion of coil difference. The price difference between rebar and hot coil has expanded from-160 yuan/ton at the end of the year to 270 yuan/ton, and the profit-driven difference between rebar and hot coil has expanded from-800,000 tons to 340,000 tons.

The spread is widening, hitting a new high?

Judging from the price difference of coiled screws for a whole year, the coil is always stronger than the thread, and the price difference has always been positive. Obviously, the price of hot coil is weaker than that of thread, and the price has almost shrunk. The main reason is that the influence of early limited production on the output of hot coils is less than that of rebar, which leads to the continuous accumulation of hot coils. This year, the environmental protection has been strictly investigated, and the downstream processing has been stopped for many times, and the demand for hot coils has been greatly reduced. Cold rolling and hot rolling account for a large proportion of automobile steel, so automobile production and sales can be regarded as an important index representing the downstream demand change of hot rolling.