Since the second half of 2020, oil prices have generally gone up and down. Up to now, the prices of refined oil have reached one liter between 7.5 yuan and 8.2 yuan, which is much higher than the lowest price in 5.4 yuan in 2020.
Will the oil price in China be lowered on June 5th 165438? To solve this problem, we must first understand what is the basis for oil price adjustment.
China's refined oil prices are adjusted every 10 working days, and the adjustment basis mainly refers to the fluctuation of international crude oil prices. At present, we mainly refer to the price fluctuation of Brent, Minas and Dubai crude oil futures markets. When the weighted average prices of these three international crude oil futures markets fluctuate greatly and the corresponding domestic refined oil prices fluctuate above 50 yuan per ton, the domestic refined oil prices will be adjusted.
In the past period of time, the international crude oil price suddenly fell after a long-term rise. 1October 25th 10, the price of crude oil remained at about $85 per ton. By1October 3, 1 165438, the international crude oil price had dropped to about $82.5, which was equivalent to a drop of about 3% in the international crude oil price.
Judging from the current trend of international crude oil prices, the impact on domestic refined oil prices will not be too great. 1October 5 165438+24, there is a high probability that the domestic refined oil price adjustment may be stranded.
Because the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices does not look at the real-time pricing of international crude oil prices, but refers to the weighted average of international crude oil prices in the past 10 trading days. The last round of domestic refined oil adjustment date was 65438+1October 23rd, and eight trading days have passed by the 23rd, and the corresponding international crude oil price has also dropped from about $85 to about $83 at present.
It stands to reason that the international crude oil price falls, and the corresponding domestic crude oil price should also be lowered. However, due to the relatively small decline in international crude oil prices, the corresponding current round of crude oil price adjustment may be stranded.
By observing the change rate of crude oil in the past eight trading days, it is predicted that the price of refined oil may be raised by about one ton in 25 yuan on1October 5, 165438. Of course, whether it is upward or downward in the end depends on the performance of international crude oil prices in the last two working days. However, according to the current trend of international crude oil prices, I don't think there will be much decline in the short term, and the corresponding adjustment range of domestic refined oil prices may be lower than that of 50 yuan per ton, so the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices may be stranded.