First of all, it means that the market will be more open and international investors will pay more attention and participate. Secondly, the inclusion of MSCI Emerging Markets Index is the inclusion of MSCI index system, which will have an impact on the weight of MSCI global, emerging markets and Asia-Pacific index. Thirdly, passive funds following the above index adjust their weights to allocate funds to the A-share market, and active funds following the index will also pay more attention to some extent.
From the past experience, MSCI Emerging Markets Index is basically a corporate target with stable performance, relatively large market share, good valuation and liquidity. At present, MSCI Emerging Markets Index contains 822 stocks in 2 1 market, accounting for 1 1% of the global market value. From the perspective of industry, finance, information technology and energy account for the largest proportion. At the company level, Samsung [Weibo] Electronics, Taiwan Province IC and Tencent Holdings are the three largest companies in the index, all of which belong to the information technology industry.
Therefore, if A shares are included, the industry distribution will be no exception, and blue chips will occupy most of the weight. Although the incremental allocation of funds has not been realized in the short term, it will further catalyze the market to allocate blue chips.
2. But objectively speaking, the real impact is not great, and the future trend of A shares still depends on domestic fundamentals.
First of all, all investment is still restricted by the QFII system. All funds invested in A-shares still depend on QFII and RQFII channels, all of which need approval; Limited by QFII and RQFII systems, investors can not fully realize the daily cross-border flow of funds, and there is a principal lock-up period system, which limits the short-term speculative liquidity of cross-border funds; Under the QFII and RQFII systems, there are restrictions on the access scale, that is, 306.4 billion US dollars.
Secondly, from the international experience, it is a long-term process to fully incorporate the emerging market index. Looking back, we found that from 1996 to May 20 14, * * a total of four national and regional indexes were transferred to emerging markets, namely, Korean index, Taiwan Province regional index, UAE index and Qatar index. From the perspective of South Korea and Taiwan Province Province, which have the most referential significance, it took 1 1 year and 13 years respectively from the beginning of allowing foreign investors to invest in the stock market to being included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index for the first time. It took 6 years and 9 years from the first time that a certain proportion was included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to the full inclusion. It can be seen that it generally takes a long time for a market to be included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which is a process in which the market must gradually accept and adapt to international investors.
Third, the initial inclusion ratio is low and the incremental funds are limited. Regardless of the QFII system, if A shares are included in the emerging market index, the initial impact will be limited. Based on the performance of MSCI, the investment in tracking the emerging market index and the world index is about 1.4 trillion US dollars and 1.7 trillion US dollars respectively, which is most affected by the participation of A shares. Considering the restriction of 30% foreign ownership, the following capital inflows can be estimated respectively.
If the proportion of 5% is included, the capital inflow is about 7.8 billion US dollars. A shares account for about 0.46% in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and 0.08% in the MSCI World Index. Assuming that the assets based on MSCI index are allocated to A shares in proportion, the capital inflow is about 7.8 billion US dollars, and the scale of bilateral capital flow is about 654.38+05.6 billion US dollars. In addition, these funds tracking MSCI index are not all passive index funds, so the impact on A shares is likely to be more limited.
When A shares are all included in MSCI index (100%), the capital inflow is about154.5 billion USD. A shares account for about 9. 12% in emerging markets and about10.58% in the world index. The capital inflow is about $654.38+054.5 billion, but the experience of South Korea and other countries and regions shows that it will be a slow and gradual process lasting 6-654.38+00 years. Considering that the total amount of QFII and RQFII is $306.4 billion, the current approved amount is $654.38+0362 billion, and the remaining amount is $654.38+0702 billion. At present, there is no big bottleneck for the incremental funds of about $7.8 billion, but a single QFII quota QFII 6543.8+00 billion cannot meet the allocation demand of larger funds.