1, RMB depreciation, that is, currency depreciation (also known as devaluation, which is the symmetry of currency appreciation), in professional terms, refers to the decline in the value contained in or represented by unit currency, that is, the decline in the price of unit currency; In the most popular words, the purchasing power of RMB is weak, or money is valuable. For example, now 6.3654 RMB can be exchanged for 1 USD. If it depreciates by 50%, the depreciated 1 USD can buy 12.7308 RMB, or 6.3654 RMB can buy 0.5 USD.
2. Then, if RMB depreciates, what impact will it have on our people (individuals)? The devaluation of RMB will first make the RMB exchange rate fall (taking the central parity of RMB against the US dollar as the reference value), then affect the national macro-economy, and finally reflect the overall (national macro-economy) changes in the lives of our people (individuals).
RMB depreciation generally includes active devaluation and passive devaluation. Generally speaking, the active devaluation of RMB means that the central bank of China actively adjusts the central parity of RMB against the US dollar according to the current macroeconomic situation to reflect the devaluation. Active devaluation is a national macroeconomic means, which is beneficial and harmless to most of us in the overall domestic situation. The passive devaluation of RMB generally refers to the sharp appreciation of other countries' currencies (generally referring to the US dollar), which leads to the automatic upward adjustment of the central parity of RMB against the US dollar (passive upward adjustment), which weakens the purchasing power of RMB and devalues it.
RMB depreciation will harm the interests of the following categories of people (industries):
(1), an investor in the stock market. In fact, the trends of RMB and A shares are mostly highly correlated. If the RMB depreciates, many people will consider changing their money into dollars, which may lead to a rapid decline in A shares. This is because the depreciation of RMB will lead to a decline in the valuation of local currency assets, which in turn will lead to the weakening of relevant sectors of the financial industry (including real estate), and even drag down the overall market and damage investors. On the other hand, once the expectation of RMB depreciation is formed, it will lead to the outflow of hot money, and the capital market where A shares are located will tighten rapidly, leading to the loss of shareholders. Thirdly, if the RMB depreciates sharply, it may make overseas financing enterprises bear a heavy financial burden, reduce the valuation of related stocks, and thus "cut the meat" for sale.
(2), leaving the country (traveling abroad or studying abroad). For students who go abroad to play or study in the United States, it means that the same RMB is exchanged for a lot less dollars than before, which will cause economic constraints to those who go abroad. For these people, you can buy foreign exchange first, that is, consider changing all the cash (dollars) you need before going abroad. You can also bring several credit cards (UnionPay, VISA, MasterCard), because many people like to use credit cards for shopping when traveling abroad. If the RMB is depreciating, the credit card settled in US dollars is relatively cost-effective, but if the repayment is delayed, you can still pay less. If you use a credit card settled in RMB, you will have to pay more interest if the RMB continues to depreciate.
(3) Haitao people in China. In recent years, the overseas purchasing market is extremely hot. The prices of goods purchased from overseas Haitao are generally about 1/3 cheaper than those purchased at domestic counters, and some are even half cheaper, which is why many Haitao people are far away from their hometown. However, if the RMB depreciates, many Haitao people will "lose money". For example, if you buy a commodity with the original value of 100 USD (equivalent to about 636.54 RMB) from overseas, if the RMB depreciates by 50% (exaggerated, easy to understand), it will cost 1273.08 RMB. Just like 3 yuan a catty of cabbage, it is obviously unfavorable to spend 6 yuan to buy it after RMB depreciation. Of course, it will be beneficial for foreigners to find China products at this time.
The following analysis shows that if the RMB depreciates, it will affect individuals as a whole:
As we all know, the advantages and disadvantages are relative. What's good for some people is not good for others. Just like import and export enterprises, RMB depreciation is beneficial to export enterprises and inhibits the development of import enterprises. At the same time, a good export enterprise will be good for employees engaged in the export industry, such as double wages; Of course, when imported enterprises are suppressed, the lives of employees working in imported enterprises will face difficulties. Of course, the devaluation of the renminbi, according to the meaning of "money is worthless", sounds like a good thing or a bad thing, just like going to the vegetable market to buy a catty of cabbage costs 3 yuan, but after devaluation, it costs 6 yuan. If you are an ordinary farmer in China, your income can only depend on planting, and there is little land, there will be a phenomenon of "not having enough to eat". Of course, the state has considered this situation. For this kind of people, the state has adopted a "subsidy" way to make our life more interesting.
(1), RMB depreciation will benefit the following categories of people (industries) or those engaged in the following export industries:
Textiles and clothing. The depreciation of RMB will give many domestic export-oriented enterprises a breathing space. Among these export-oriented enterprises, textile and garment enterprises undoubtedly occupy a considerable proportion. For textile and garment enterprises whose profits are swallowed up by foreign exchange settlement, RMB depreciation will be one of the most direct means to stimulate performance growth.
B. steel industry. Going abroad is an effective way for steel enterprises to increase profits, especially in the case of RMB depreciation, which undoubtedly enhances the competitiveness of related steel enterprises.
C. shipping industry. The depreciation of RMB will stimulate the export of domestic textile and other industries and bring certain benefits to container shipping, thus stimulating the demand for raw materials to drive the air freight market.
D. procurement industry. The depreciation of RMB will increase the purchasing cost of importing enterprises, but it is good for export-oriented chemical enterprises.
E. automobile industry. The depreciation of RMB may reduce the price attractiveness of imported cars, thus inhibiting the further expansion of imported car sales.
(2) RMB depreciation will affect investors (such as spot, futures, foreign exchange, etc. ).
A, RMB depreciation, reflected in the dollar exchange rate, and the dollar exchange rate directly affects the fluctuation of silver price under certain circumstances. Generally speaking, in the spot silver market, the dollar rises (RMB depreciates) and the silver price falls, while the dollar falls (RMB appreciates) and the silver price rises. Spot investment can buy up and buy down. If the RMB depreciates, people who buy in the right direction may get rich overnight. If the direction is reversed, it may be ruined.
B, a strong dollar (RMB depreciation) generally means that the domestic economic situation in the United States is good, domestic stocks and bonds in the United States will be sought after by investors, and the function of spot silver as a means of value storage will be weakened; The decline in the exchange rate of the US dollar is often related to inflation and the stock market downturn, and the value-preserving function of spot silver is once again reflected. This is because the depreciation of the dollar is often related to inflation, while the value of spot silver is high. In the case of the depreciation of the dollar and the intensification of inflation, it will often stimulate the preservation and speculative demand for spot silver. The dollar is strong and silver is weak; Silver is strong and the dollar is weak.
C. Futures are mainly not commodities, but can be embodied through trade. There is a correlation between RMB depreciation and the deterioration of terms of trade, and the expansion of export volume has aggravated the deterioration of terms of trade.
D. The impact of RMB depreciation on foreign exchange traders.
Since foreign exchange is a bilateral transaction, traders can buy a currency pair contract as the beginning of the transaction, or they can sell a currency pair as the beginning of the transaction. Similarly, they can buy and sell a pair of currencies as the end of the transaction. Whether it is up or down, it is possible to achieve profitability. In other words, if the RMB depreciates, people who buy in the right direction may get rich overnight, and those who buy in the opposite direction may lose all their money.
(3) Other effects of RMB depreciation.
For a long time, a large amount of foreign capital has wandered in China, earning a lot of money from China. Someone once told such a joke: An American ate and drank in China, and when he left, he changed the remaining money into dollars. A year later, he wanted to eat and drink freely in China. Theoretically, a large amount of US dollars will enter China and be converted into RMB assets to avoid the relative depreciation of the US dollar. After these dollars enter, they exist in the form of some kind of assets. Most of them are buying real estate. One of the reasons for the sharp rise in house prices in the past few years is the continuous depreciation of the RMB. In this process of depreciation, people who own real estate have a rapid appreciation of their assets, but this is not necessarily a good thing. Because, if the RMB depreciates, some investors worry that assets will be withdrawn from real estate, especially the funds that poured into China from overseas in the early days will flow out of China because of the devaluation of the RMB, or they will not dare to enter the China market easily again, which will help the domestic housing asset prices to fall again.