Aluminum price will change with the change of market supply and demand, which is balanced, and aluminum price will fluctuate within a small range, otherwise it will fluctuate greatly. The important index of market supply and demand is inventory, which can be divided into reported inventory and non-reported inventory. Inventory reporting refers to the amount of aluminum inventory in its designated delivery warehouse regularly announced by the futures exchange, and its decline will lead to an increase in aluminum demand, and vice versa.
2. Electricity price factor
Electrolytic aluminum industry is an intensive industry that depends on electricity, and the demand for electricity is great. Therefore, when developing electrolytic aluminum industry, we have to consider the influencing factors of electricity price, which affects the production of electrolytic aluminum in China and the trend of aluminum price at home and abroad.
3. The price of alumina
The cost of alumina accounts for about 28%-34% of the production cost of aluminum ingots. Compared with countries that produce electrolytic aluminum on a large scale because of the shortage of alumina, the fluctuation of international alumina price will affect the production cost of electrolytic aluminum in China. For example, in 2000, the international spot price of alumina dropped sharply from the highest of $450/ton at the beginning of the year to 165- 175 $/ton at the end of the year, with an extent of about 70%. At the same time, the international aluminum price fluctuated greatly, from 1753 USD/ton at the beginning of the year to 1480- 1650 USD/ton. In 2002, the average unit consumption of alumina in China aluminum smelting enterprises was 1938.27 kg/ton, and in 2003 it was 1944.88 kg/ton.
4. Import and export policies and exchange rates
Due to the tight supply of alumina in China and the restriction of macroeconomic environment, the demand for aluminum cannot grow too fast, which is helpful to promote the export of domestic aluminum ingots to some extent. However, the high energy consumption and high cost of domestic aluminum ingot production restrict the development of China's aluminum ingot industry. Therefore, a certain amount of aluminum still needs to be imported every year to meet domestic demand, and the adjustment of China's aluminum import and export tariffs will affect domestic aluminum prices. In addition, international aluminum transactions are denominated in US dollars, and the exchange rate between the two sides will also have a certain impact on aluminum prices.
5. The influence of capital on aluminum price
Every time the aluminum price fluctuates violently, you can see signs of international capital activities. For example, when the price of aluminum dropped from a high of $2,200 at the beginning of 1.995 to a historical low at the end of 1.998, it attracted the attention of some international funds and began to buy a large number of aluminum forward contracts, gradually mastering more than half of the inventory; For another example, after entering 1999, when the global economy began to recover and the aluminum price fell below the support level of 1200, the fund took advantage of the general pessimism in the market and suddenly entered the market to raise the aluminum price. Since March, aluminum has gradually increased from 1 158 USD, and launched five waves of rising prices.
6, aluminum application trend
Aluminum consumption changes and industrial adjustment in wire and cable, automobile manufacturing, real estate and other industries will have a great impact on aluminum production and market price.
7. Improvement and innovation of aluminum production process
The application of computer technology in electrolytic aluminum industry is more and more extensive. With the popularization and wide application of intelligent electrolytic aluminum technology with large capacity and high efficiency, the production cost of aluminum will continue to decline.
hope this helps