Last week, the overall price of gold continued to climb, and the US economy continued to be weak, which deepened investors' concerns about the prospects of economic recovery and promoted safe-haven buying to continue buying gold assets, while the buying enthusiasm of gold ETF funds still supported the price of gold. Since last week, the price of gold has steadily stabilized above 1, 2 10, and has been rising all the way. Last Thursday, it once approached 1, 240. However, the rebound of the dollar restrained the rising pace of gold price. Last Friday, the price of gold fell below $65,438 +0.230, but it still closed at the positive line all week. Last week, the highest price of gold was $65,438 +0.237.4/ ounce, and the lowest price was $65,438+0.210.3.6/ounce, closing at $65,438 +0.227.9/ounce, a sharp increase of $65,438 +03.2 compared with last Friday. Last Friday, the highest price of gold was $65,438 +0.233.7/ oz, and the lowest price was $65,438 +0.222/oz, closing at $65,438 +0.227.9/oz, slightly down $4.2 from the previous trading day, with a daily decrease of 0.34%. The daily K-line presents a long downward-leading small negative line, which oscillates around the 5-day moving average. Last week, the highest price of silver was 18.63 USD/ounce, and the lowest price was 17.82 USD/ounce, which closed at18.0/USD/ounce, which was significantly lower than last Friday's18.0/4 USD. Last Friday, the highest price of silver was 18.34 USD/ounce, and the lowest price was 17.824 USD/ounce, and it closed at18.0/USD/ounce, down 23 cents from the previous trading day, with a daily decline of 1.26%. On the day, the K-line showed a bullish downward pull and a moderate decline. Last Friday, the US dollar index reached a high of 83.30 and a low of 82.43, closing at 83.02, up 55 points from the previous trading day, with a daily increase of 0.67%. The daily K-line presents a long upward-drawing xiaoyang line, extending the 5-day moving average and continuing to rebound. Last Friday, crude oil hit a high of $74.99/barrel and a low of $73.44/barrel, closing at $73.82/barrel, down slightly by 6 1 cent or 0.82% compared with the previous trading day. The daily K-line shows a small Yinxian shape with a continuous unilateral decline of the 5-day moving average.
Last Tuesday, the Federal Reserve Bank of new york purchased about US$ 255,654,380+billion of US Treasury bonds with a maturity of 20 14 to 20 16 years, at a purchase price of US$ 2.09 billion to ensure the money supply of the financial system. This is the first time that the Federal Reserve has increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds since last June 10. This move is regarded by public opinion as restarting "quantitative easing", and the future trend of the US economy is even more confusing. In order to eliminate the adverse effects of the financial crisis, from March to June last year 10, the Federal Reserve purchased a total of 300 billion US dollars of government bonds to reduce borrowing costs. As the first new rescue measure in a year, the Federal Reserve Bank of new york used the maturity funds of its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to buy US Treasury bonds. Affected by this, the dollar LIBOR interest rate fell to a low point in more than three months. As the Fed's bond purchase is expected and the scale is not large, the actual impact on the market is not obvious, but the clear intention of the authorities to maintain a loose policy environment will create a good atmosphere for the financial market. The short-term interest rate resolution and policy statement released by the Federal Reserve on August 10 show that its portfolio strategy has undergone major changes. Since then, the market has interpreted the intention of its policy change, and many Fed officials have also expressed different views. Until last week, nearly two weeks after the announcement of the policy, the comments of Fed officials did not stop. At this meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it would reinvest the money returned from mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the US Treasury bond market, and hoped that its balance sheet would remain unchanged at $2 trillion. This has become the focus of market discussion, and market participants believe that this policy change is crucial, because in recent months, in order to reflect that economic improvement no longer needs policy stimulus, policymakers have been discussing reducing the size of the balance sheet. Since the balance sheet will not shrink, most financial professionals interpret the latest Fed policy as a modest attempt to prevent it from further restricting the economy. Due to the passive maturity of MBS without replacement, the assets of the Federal Reserve will be greatly reduced, which is regarded as an important policy measure of the Federal Reserve by the market. The Fed's monetary policy statement shows that the economic recovery is unsustainable and the Fed will not despair of the recovery. If the slowdown in the US economic recovery is not short-term, the Fed will take more easing measures, and the actions they have taken so far are very small.
Important data and events this week include the Chicago Fed National Activity Index in July and the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index in August. On Tuesday, Germany's seasonally adjusted GDP in the second quarter, industrial orders in the euro zone in June, NAR existing home sales in the United States in July, and Richmond Fed manufacturing index in the United States in August; On Wednesday, the total number of construction permits in the United States in July was revised, Germany's Ifo business climate index in August, durable goods orders in the United States in July, and changes in EIA crude oil inventories in the United States last week; On Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week, and the Kansas Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Index in August; On Friday, Germany reconciled the consumer price index in August, the annualized real GDP in the second quarter of the United States, the personal consumption expenditure price index in the second quarter of the United States, and the final value of the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in August.
Last week, the US dollar index continuously bottomed out near 82, and finally broke through 83.438+0 last Friday. Whether the US dollar index can further rise above 83.50 this week has become the focus of attention. Although countries maintain loose policies, in view of the market's concerns about the economic prospects of the United States, the lack of clear recovery signals will suppress the market's risk appetite in the medium term. Investors' cautious mood has greatly warmed up, brewing the market's safe-haven demand for the US dollar. A stronger dollar will bring negative pressure on the price of gold to a great extent. However, the market still has doubts about the global economic recovery, and the safe-haven demand for gold is still relatively strong. The gold ETF fund reversed the trend of continuous sharp lightening in July, and gradually increased its positions steadily, which also greatly encouraged market confidence. This support can largely absorb the negative pressure brought by the rise of the US dollar on the price of gold, and also keep the price of gold from going deeper. However, the euro zone countries are implementing fiscal austerity, trying to reduce the deficit to restore the international credit of the euro; The United States and Japan hope to save employment and economy by expanding exports, and the risk of expanding quantitative easing in the future still exists; Asian countries and developing countries are facing the impact of inflation and the uncertainty of global economic recovery prospects, which leads to avoiding risks and protecting assets from depreciation as recognized "safe investment" strategies in the market. Therefore, gold has also been sought after by all kinds of investors, and its price has remained at a historical high because of the high purchasing enthusiasm. If this situation continues, the price of gold is expected to rise sharply again and hit a record high in the future. From a technical point of view, the gold price will encounter strong resistance at $65,438+$0.242 in the short term, and the need for further correction in the short term is not ruled out. However, as long as the gold price can remain above1.654,38+0.90 USD, it will still be a signal that the mid-line will continue to be bullish. It is expected that the price of gold will eventually exceed 1.242 USD, and further upswing during the year will push the price of gold to 65438+. Today's gold price is supported below 1222 USD and 12 15 USD; Top pressure 1233 USD, 1239 USD.
Today's (0825) trading instruction:
Gold fluctuated between 1205- 1248, and silver fluctuated between 17.3- 18.7.
At present, the fluctuation of gold and silver prices may expand and accelerate, and investors should strictly abide by the stop loss point according to their own risks. At the same time, choose a variety of investment products such as gold, silver, crude oil, euro, copper, zinc, platinum, stock index futures, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, etc. for investment portfolio, so as to minimize investment risks and ensure reasonable investment returns. If you want to know the operation suggestions or portfolio plans of various gold investment varieties in a timely, detailed and accurate manner, please contact senior investment consultants (all rights reserved, please contact me if you need to reprint).