A number of survey data show that in February 2065,438+08, the output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decreased by 530,000 barrels per day to 32.6 million barrels per day, the highest since June 2065,438+07. Among them, Saudi Arabia's production decreased by 420,000 barrels per day. Market investors have confidence in the new round of production reduction agreement, and believe that the initiative of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to reduce production was carried out before the production reduction agreement came into effect, which means that crude oil exporting countries are eager to stabilize the market supply and demand relationship.
In addition to the warmth brought by the reduction in production, the overall situation of the crude oil market is improving, and US stocks bottomed out. According to data released by Baker Hughes, an American oil service company, as of the week of June 4, 65438, the number of active drilling wells in the United States decreased by 8 to 877, the first decline in three weeks, compared with 742 in the same period last year. During the same period, the number of drilling operations in Canada increased by 6 to 76, while the number of drilling operations in North America decreased by 2.
Under this circumstance, when/kloc-0 closed at 65438+ on October 4th, the price of light crude oil futures for February delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 0.87 USD to close at 47.96 USD per barrel, with an increase of 1.85%. London Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose 1. 1 1 USD to close at 57.06 USD per barrel, with an increase of 1.98%.
The crude oil change rate referenced by domestic oil price adjustment also rose within a negative range. Zhuo Chuang data shows that the change rate of domestic reference crude oil is -2.23% on the 5th working day after the closing of 65438+10.4, which means that gasoline and diesel are lowered by 85 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to price increase. 92# gasoline and 0# diesel are lowered by 0.07 yuan per liter, and-10# diesel is lowered by 0.08 yuan per liter. If the price adjustment is implemented according to this range, consumers will make up for it.
"However, driven by the production reduction agreement, international crude oil will continue to rise in the later period. In addition, the retaliatory rebound of US stocks will continue to benefit from the slight increase in crude oil and continue to raise the average level of crude oil in this cycle, and the rate of change is expected to turn from negative to positive. " Zhang Jinyi, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, believes that on the whole, the new round of retail price limit for refined oil products may miss the "six-day losing streak".