1, international market supply situation
The global soybean harvest is divided into two periods in the northern and southern hemispheres. The soybean harvest period in South America (Brazil and Argentina) is April-May every year, while the soybean harvest period in the United States and China in the northern hemisphere is 9-65438+ 10. So there is a centralized supply of soybeans once every six months.
The United States is the largest soybean supplier in the world, and the change of its output has a great influence on the world soybean market.
2. Domestic soybean supply situation
As an agricultural product (9.59, 0. 14, 1.48%), the production and supply of soybean have great uncertainty. First of all, the cultivation and supply of soybeans are seasonal. Generally speaking, in the harvest period, the price of soybeans is relatively low. Secondly, the planting area of soybeans is changing, which has an impact on the market price of soybeans. Secondly, the growth period of soybean is about 4 months. During the planting period, climatic factors, growth and harvest progress will all affect soybean yield, and then affect soybean price.
3. Import volume
China is one of the largest importers in the international soybean market. Therefore, the international price level and import volume directly affect the domestic soybean price.
(B) Analysis of soybean consumption
1, analysis of international market demand factors
The main soybean importing countries are the European Union, Japan, China, Southeast Asian countries and regions. The soybean imports of the European Union and Japan are relatively stable, while those of China and Southeast Asian countries change greatly. During the period of 1997, the financial crisis occurred in Asia, and the soybean imports of Southeast Asian countries fell sharply, which led to the decline of soybean prices in the international market.
2. Analysis of domestic market demand factors
Soybean consumption is relatively stable and has a weak impact on the price. After soybean is squeezed, the market demand of soybean oil and soybean meal products is uncertain and there are many influencing factors. The urgent demand of soybean changes greatly, which has a great influence on the price.
The influence of related commodity prices
As food, soybean substitutes include peas, mung beans and kidney beans. As oilseeds, soybean substitutes include rapeseed, cottonseed, sunflower seeds and peanuts. Changes in the output, price and consumption of these substitutes also have an indirect impact on soybean prices.
The price of soybean is directly related to its subsequent products, soybean oil and soybean meal. Changes in demand for these two products will directly lead to changes in soybean prices.
(4) Agricultural, trade and food policies related to soybeans.
L, the impact of agricultural policy
Internationally, the agricultural policies of major soybean producing countries have a great influence on soybean futures prices. 1996, the us congress approved the new 1996 federal agricultural improvement and reform bill, which made the planting area of American farmers soar by 10% in the afternoon of 1997, and became one of the factors that pushed the soybean price down sharply.
Changes in domestic agricultural policies will also have an impact on soybean prices. In 2000, the state encouraged farmers to plant more soybeans, and the soybean planting area in Northeast China increased.
2, the impact of trade policy
Trade policy will directly affect the availability of goods, especially the original price of goods. After China's entry into WTO, China's soybean import tariff will be reduced to 3%. At the same time, due to the failure to implement the soybean import quota, China's soybean imports will remain high in the future.
3. The impact of food policy
Since the 1990s, European countries have required the United States to isolate and label genetically modified soybeans from soybeans exported to the European Union. If this grain policy is implemented, it will have an impact on the world soybean market, especially on genetically modified soybeans.
(E) the impact of soybean prices in the international market
China's soybean import and export volume accounts for a large proportion in the world soybean trade volume, and the international soybean market price and domestic soybean price influence each other. The soybean futures prices of the big commercial exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) have the same trend and are independent.