The first is the macroeconomic cycle, which is a medium-and long-term trend. According to the real GDP growth rate of the United States, the author redefines the fifth round of long waves (see "202 1 Investment Code Implied in Economic Data" and "The Fed will raise interest rates by more than 350bp in this round"). The world economy entered the depression stage of innovation cycle from 20 18, and the comparable period was 1973 ~ 1982. The role of innovation in promoting economic growth has gradually disappeared, and productivity growth has been slow. The decline in economic growth has led to a decline in real interest rates and a widening gap between the rich and the poor, which has spawned populism and conservatism. The uncertainty of world economy and politics has greatly increased, and the friction between big countries has impacted the energy supply. The low real rate of return makes resources transfer from the real economy to the virtual economy, which intensifies the asset price bubble, the commodity price rises sharply, and the stagflation risk rises.

Second, the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry leads to a tight balance between supply and demand in the global nickel market, which is a medium-term fundamental state. In 20021year, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles was 6.75 million, a year-on-year increase of108%; The installed capacity of global power batteries reached 296.8GWh, up 65,438+002.2% year-on-year. As an important market for new energy vehicles, in February 2022, the retail volume of new energy passenger cars in China reached 272,000, up by 180.5% year-on-year, and the retail penetration rate was 2 1.8%, which was 13 higher than the penetration rate of 8. 1% in February 2026. In the existing technical route of ternary lithium battery, high nickel battery is recognized as a way to improve energy density. Driven by the growth of demand for ternary lithium batteries and high nickel ternary, the global demand for nickel has maintained a high growth. According to the report of the World Bureau of Metals Statistics, the global nickel mine output reached 2.7 million metal tons in 20021year, an increase of 8% compared with 2020. However, the global nickel market has changed from an oversupply of 84,000 tons in 2020 to a shortage of 202 1 year144,300 tons. It is estimated that the global nickel market will still maintain a tight balance between supply and demand in 2022.