After 24 years, Japan's Ministry of Finance intervened in the exchange rate for the first time.
On September 22nd, according to a report quoted by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun by CCTV News, Shinji Kanda, the financial officer of the Japanese Ministry of Finance, announced that the Japanese Ministry of Finance had intervened in the exchange rate.
It is reported that this is the first time since June 1998 that the Japanese government has intervened in the exchange rate by selling dollars to buy yen after a lapse of 24 years.
The yen rose by 500 points in an instant.
Wind data shows that today, after falling below 1 USD, the yen exchange rate rose to 145 USD, and once soared by more than 500 points, returning to the integer level of 140 USD.
As of 22: 00 pm on the 22nd, USD/JPY fell by 2.50% in the day, and it is now reported as 140.49.
The Bank of Japan is retrograde and monetary policy continues to be loose.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the Bank of Japan announced after the monetary policy meeting on the 22nd that it would continue to adhere to the current ultra-loose monetary policy and keep interest rates unchanged.
On the same day, the Bank of Japan announced that it would continue to maintain the short-term interest rate at -0. 1% and the long-term interest rate at around zero by purchasing long-term government bonds. If necessary in the future, monetary policy will be further relaxed.
Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan, said that large-scale monetary easing was necessary to support Japan's economic recovery from the downturn caused by the new crown epidemic.
The announcement also said that although the epidemic still affects the business activities of some small and medium-sized enterprises, with the improvement of their financial situation, the Bank of Japan will gradually terminate the preferential financing policies for small and medium-sized enterprises in stages, and the current preferential financing policies will be extended to the end of March next year at most.
After the news was announced, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar fell sharply, and once fell below 145 to 1.
Since the beginning of this year, although the United States and other major developed economies have repeatedly accelerated the pace of tightening monetary policy, the Bank of Japan has insisted on ultra-loose monetary policy due to the reality of weak domestic demand and weak economic recovery.
The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points again, and the analysis said that its spillover effect would damage the whole world.
According to CCTV news reports, at 2 am Beijing time on September 22nd, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise interest rates by 75 basis points again, raising the target range of federal funds interest rate to 3%-3.25%. On that day, the three major stock indexes of new york stock market fell sharply.
Since March this year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times in a row, with a cumulative interest rate increase of 300 basis points, which has led to a significant cooling of the US real estate market, stock market turmoil and a significant slowdown in economic growth. Analysts believe that the inflation situation in the United States is still grim, and the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike policy may push up the unemployment rate, aggravate the risk of "hard landing" of the economy and bring greater risks to the world economy.
According to CCTV news, citing the website of Dialogue magazine in the United States, the sharp increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve has caused other countries to face adverse effects such as inflation and currency depreciation, which has increased the risk of world economic recession and will eventually bite the United States itself.
The strong dollar may last until the end of the year, and non-US currencies generally fall.
After the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision came out, the US dollar index reached11.83, the highest since 2002. Non-American currencies generally fell. The exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar hit a new low since 10 in 2002, the exchange rate of the pound against the US dollar hit a new low since 1985, and the exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the US dollar hit a new low in 2002.
Shi Jialiang, Founder Mid-term Futures, told 2 1 Century Business Herald that both the statement, economic forecast and bitmap of the Federal Reserve's September meeting on interest rates and the speech by Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, showed a hawkish tone.
The Federal Reserve stressed that there is still room for 100- 125BP to raise interest rates during the year, and it will eventually raise interest rates above 4%. It is this that has a great impact on the market. Against the background that the Fed continues to release hawkish signals, it is expected that the strong market of the US dollar will continue, and the US dollar index will peak down or wait until11-65438+February.
Bai Xue, an analyst at Oriental Jincheng Research and Development Department, pointed out to reporters that the relative growth advantage of the US economy, the continued hawkish monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve, the weakening of US import demand and the tightening of offshore dollar liquidity will continue to provide support for the US dollar. It is expected that the US dollar index will continue to run strongly in the future, and it may go up to around 1 15- 120 from the end of this year to the beginning of next year.
Fed-led interest rate hikes may trigger a global recession.
According to CCTV news, on the evening of September 22, Beijing time, the central bank came to raise interest rates: the Bank of England announced that it would raise interest rates by 50 basis points, and the Bank of South Africa raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 6.25%, which was in line with market expectations.
According to the incomplete statistics of reporters in the 265438+20th Century Business Herald, in order to curb the capital outflow effect caused by the Fed's interest rate hike, the global "interest rate hike" struck again in September. Up to now, more than 13 central banks have raised interest rates, of which Argentina raised interest rates by 550 basis points at a time to cope with nearly 80% inflation. The smallest single rate hike was the Peruvian central bank, which raised interest rates by 25 basis points, but it was the Peruvian central bank that raised interest rates 14 times in a row.
Before Britain and South Africa raised interest rates on September 22nd, at least 13 central banks in the world announced interest rate hikes.
According to the research report released by the World Bank on June 5438+05, raising interest rates at the same time by many central banks around the world in response to inflation may plunge the world economy into recession and bring financial crisis to emerging markets and developing economies, causing lasting damage. According to the research of the World Bank, many central banks around the world have been raising interest rates at a synchronous rate that has never been seen in the past 50 years, and this trend may continue until next year.
Studies show that central banks in these countries may need to raise interest rates by an average of 2% to reduce inflation to the target level. In this case, if the financial market pressure is superimposed, the global GDP growth rate will slow down to 0.5% in 2023, and the per capita will shrink by 0.4%, which is in line with the technical definition of global recession.