Garlic in 2009 has risen from a few cents at the beginning to three or four yuan/kg now, so speculators who have no investment experience and occasionally joined this year are also full. There was a saying that "it goes up quickly and it goes down quickly", but this prediction did not come true in garlic in 2009, so think about it in reverse. Does it indicate that 20 10 will be a year with high risk?
In 2009, the spot price of garlic continued to rise for the following reasons: 1. Due to the meager profit in the previous two years and the panic of garlic market collapse, garlic production declined and some areas were dry; 2. The export volume has increased. 3 garlic merchants snapped up and followed suit; "4" the impact of swine flu; 5 RMB appreciation expectation exists; 6. Low inflation impact; 7. Speculation ... If we continue to speculate on the garlic price trend in 20 10 from the above factors-the garlic planting area has increased in 2065438+00, but it is unlikely to increase significantly due to the shadow panic in 2007-08. The overall increase should be between 5% and 10%. Moreover, the price of garlic seems to have reached an unprecedented peak this year. As the saying goes, "it's too cold at the top", many people who speculate in stocks may polish their stocks before April and May of 09-/kloc-0. In addition, the death of swine flu has deepened some people's goodwill towards garlic, and the expectation of RMB appreciation will not change. There is also a certain degree of inflation (but it depends on how the government regulates it) and the influence of the "Niu Li" in 2009, which will lead a large part of the funds to the garlic replication industry that has just started to go public. Many vendors are likely to snap up garlic, resulting in the situation that garlic opened higher and went higher when 20 10 was first listed. It should be because people from all walks of life are optimistic about the prospect of garlic, and this situation is likely to last until July. Although there are shocks in the process, the overall trend will continue to rise again. At the beginning of July, various stocking companies began to actively stock up and put them in storage. At this time, most garlic merchants and garlic farmers' associations are even more reluctant to sell, coupled with artificial speculation in the electronic trading market (20 10 people who work in the village will definitely fry garlic very high for their personal interests), and the price will continue to rise, which will attract a large part of funds to enter this seemingly profitable "speculation" ranks, indicating the arrival of another round of daily limit in the virtual economy. At this time, the capital market bubble gradually formed and expanded.
The optimism of virtual economy has added another profit point to the price increase of garlic industry in real economy. This "infinite spring" situation will last until mid-August, when most of them are optimistic about the prospect of garlic, and the risk of collapse is already budding. By the end of August, the national garlic has reached the storage period, and then the futures market will usher in the first sharp decline. When analyzing the situation at that time, the national garlic cold storage was full. Re-export may be affected by some foreign anti-dumping policies, but the impact is not great. The domestic demand for garlic in Southeast Asia, South Asia and other major consumer countries is not very large, and the appreciation of RMB, so the export volume of 20 10 garlic will not increase much compared with 2009. Because the price is extremely high, the consumption in the domestic market will not be great, and the demand for garlic itself as a seasoning will not be great. When vendors and garlic farmers are optimistic about the future of garlic and have a strong reluctance to sell it, the domestic and foreign markets will soon be saturated. For the spot market, this is a seemingly "stable" unstable period. Some garlic farmers and garlic merchants began to sell surplus stocks. But at this time, there will be a situation of "price without market", and some cautious garlic merchants are not optimistic about the future, whether to open or sell at low prices. At this stage, the spot market will plummet because speculators who are chasing the market have also begun to sell at low prices. When the general public loses confidence in the future market and is afraid, the garlic futures and spot markets will have a deeper "diving" ...
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