The London Stock Exchange announced that it would suspend nickel trading and cancel all transactions on the 8th. According to the announcement, the London Metal Exchange also announced that it would postpone the delivery of all physical settlement nickel contracts scheduled for delivery on March 9. The stock exchange announced that it would suspend nickel trading on the 8th and cancel all transactions.
On March 8, local time, the London Metal Exchange (LME) announced that it would not resume nickel futures trading before March 1 1, and it is expected that the price limit of 10% will be set.
Screenshot of London Metal Exchange announcement
LME said in the announcement that all members of the clearing house fully abide by their respective margin requirements. The exchange is not expected to resume nickel futures trading before March 1 1, and will inform the market before 2: 00 pm (London time) at the latest.
LME said that after nickel futures resume trading, the trading time will be shortened to 9: 00 am London time every day until all trading confidence is restored to 1 am. LME said that at present, it is expected that all direct contracts for nickel will be subject to a price limit of about 65,438+00% in all implementation locations. On the day of resumption of trading, the price rises and falls based on the closing price on March 7.
Nickel prices have been rising recently. On the 8th, nickel on the London Metal Exchange once broke through the $ 654.38+ 10,000 mark, with an intraday increase of 654.38+065.438+00%.
On the evening of the 8th Beijing time, the London Metal Exchange said that it would suspend nickel contract trading at all locations in the exchange market from 8: 00 local time. Cancel all nickel transactions in OTC and LME select screen trading systems on or after 00:00 am UK time on March 8, 2022.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that it would suspend nickel trading on the 8th and cancel all transactions. Recently, the metal market has staged an epic market. On March 7, overnight nickel futures soared by more than 88%, reaching a record high of $55,000/ton. On March 8, it tried again. Nickel once rose above the 100000 USD/ton mark, and the intraday increase once reached 1 10%. Boosted by the international market, domestic Shanghai Nickel (267,700,38,890.00,65,438+07.00%) futures followed suit. On March 7th, the daily limit of the overnight trading session ended on March 8th, closing at 228,865,438+00 yuan/ton, and continued to close at the daily limit on the opening night of the 8th.
On March 8th, London Metal Exchange (LME) announced that it would cancel all nickel trading on OTC and LME select screen trading systems at or after 0: 00am UK time (8: 00am Beijing time). In addition, the London Metal Exchange also announced that it would postpone the delivery of all physical settlement nickel contracts scheduled for delivery on March 9.
LME said that it has been paying attention to the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on the LME market, as well as the recent low inventory environment and high price fluctuation environment of LME base metals, especially nickel. Its statement is actively planning the reopening of the nickel market and will announce the relevant mechanism to the market as soon as possible.
Subsequently, LME announced that it did not expect to restart nickel trading before March 1 1. LME said that on the first settlement day after the recovery date, the nickel delivery position will continue to roll forward until the delivery resumes. On the day of resumption of trading, LME expects to resume nickel trading around 9 am London time to meet the maximum liquidity of the support contract. LME currently predicts that the upper and lower prices will be set for all nickel direct contracts in all execution places, with the price limit of 10%. LME said, "The date of resuming nickel trading will be notified to the market before 2 pm on March 10 UK time." .
"In the past two trading days, nickel is undoubtedly the star variety of commodities, and the cumulative increase of nickel in two days has exceeded 230%. It is rumored in the market that a domestic production enterprise was forced to retreat by the international energy giant Glencore, and its high-grade nickel matte did not meet the physical delivery standard of the exchange, and it faced the risk of strengthening the insurance. "
Qu Yajuan, an analyst at Changan Futures, said that the situation in Russia and Ukraine prompted the previous situation, and then there was a forced market. The crazy "soaring" of nickel market reflects the reality of insufficient supply. The rapid development of new energy automobile industry has driven the huge demand for nickel. The opening of the process from ferronickel to high nickel matte brings hope, but the output speed of high nickel matte this year is less than expected.
In addition, Qu Yajuan said that the low nickel inventory also provided a solid foundation for capital speculation. On March 7th, LME nickel inventory was 76,830 tons, which was an absolute low in history. In LME0-March, the spot premium of nickel rose to a high of about $700/ton, which also reflected the tension at the cargo end.
In fact, in addition to nickel, other non-ferrous metals have also increased more or less. In this regard, Li Xuezhi, research director of Chaos Tiancheng Futures Research Institute, said that the main driving force for the recent rise of non-ferrous metals comes from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
On the one hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine caused Europe and the United States to impose sanctions on Russia, and some Russian banks were kicked out of the Swift system, which affected the normal trade of Russian related goods. The commodities supplied by Russia are nickel, aluminum and copper, accounting for 9%, 6% and 4% of the global supply respectively. In addition, the inventory of these varieties is low, and the price elasticity is obviously increased under the interference of the incident.
On the other hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to a sharp rise in energy prices, electricity prices in many European countries, a sharp increase in smelting costs of European zinc-aluminum smelters, and a sharp drop in smelting profits or even losses, which has caused concern about the supply of zinc and aluminum in Western Europe.
Qu Yajuan also believes that the non-ferrous metal plate has a large increase, and the continued geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine is the fuse. From the perspective of supply and demand, first, western countries gradually expand sanctions against Russia, which hinders Russia's import and export trade with countries such as the United States and Europe, especially the structural shortage of foreign resources such as nickel and aluminum;
Second, the most direct impact of the tension between Russia and Ukraine is the soaring energy prices, which increases the cost of smelting enterprises or forces them to stop production and reduce supply; The strong operation of crude oil prices has also brought about high inflation. At the same time, the tendency of tightening monetary policy makes economic growth questioned, the risk of stagflation increases, and the attractiveness of non-ferrous metals increases.
Third, the inventory of non-ferrous metals continued to move down in the second half of last year, and it is still at a low level, which continues to provide support for the futures price.
"Recently, the drive of bulk commodities has changed significantly compared with before, driven by the theme of war, divorced from long-term fundamentals, and the mood of capital speculation is heavier." Qu Yajuan believes that the skyrocketing market of non-ferrous metals is difficult to sustain. At present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has only caused people to worry about the structural shortage of non-ferrous metals supply. The global shortage has not been verified, and it is necessary to continuously observe the trend of the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
Li Xuezhi said that the main driving force for the rebound of non-ferrous plates is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, so the progress of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the key to market sustainability. If the conflict eases, sanctions are expected to be lifted, supply concerns based on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will be alleviated, and the upward momentum will be weakened. In addition, as the price rises, the downstream industries will be impacted, and the downstream negative feedback will increase, which will also inhibit the continuous rise of the market.
"Although Russia's related metal production has not stopped in the context of geopolitical conflicts, sanctions against Russia have indeed occurred, affecting the actual trade and financing of related non-ferrous metals in Russia and affecting the effective supply of related non-ferrous metals. When the conflict stops, market concerns about supply will still exist. " Li Xuezhi said.
On Tuesday, local time, the London Metal Exchange (LME) issued the latest announcement, revealing the latest progress of nickel futures trading.
LME said in the announcement that all members of the clearing house fully abide by their respective margin requirements. However, LME also knows that the credit environment of the overall commodity market is in a state of tension after geopolitical events and soaring prices. Therefore, the exchange does not expect to resume nickel futures trading before March 1 1, and will notify the market before 2: 00 pm (London time) at the latest.
It should be noted that March 16 is also the third Wednesday of this month, and it is also the day with the largest number of contracts due in the whole month.
In terms of the specific details of the resumption of trading, LME's current plan is that after the resumption of trading of nickel futures, the trading time will be shortened to 9: 00 am London time every day until all trading confidence is restored to 1 point ... LME is expected to restart trading at the closing price on March 7, and set a one-day price limit of 10% for nickel futures, which means that it may take more than one day to restore stable price fluctuations. After the price limit is triggered, the transaction will continue, but orders beyond the price limit range will be automatically rejected.
At the end of this announcement, LME also mentioned the cancellation of long and short positions before the resumption of trading, so as to enhance the possibility of market stability and reduce the fluctuation of market prices after the resumption of trading. Under the principle of voluntariness, the exchange will first confirm which traders who hold a large number of multiple orders and empty orders (tentative 100 lots or more) are willing to close their positions and the price at which they are willing to close their positions, and then write off some of them to achieve a satisfactory position.