The reporter learned that the decline in PPI growth in July was mainly affected by the decline in international crude oil prices, and the pressure of imported inflation may continue to decline in the second half of the year. The rising trend of CPI is mainly driven by the rising price of pigs, but CPI is different from the core CPI, which shows that the rising of CPI is a structural inflation dominated by food prices. Market participants believe that the CPI reading may exceed 3% in the second half of the year because the pig price will continue to rise, but the structural moderate inflation has limited restrictions on monetary policy.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.8% year-on-year in July, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Historically, due to the sharp rise in pork prices, the CPI of 20 165438+2009 10 was as high as 4.5% year-on-year, and the central bank lowered the MLF interest rate in that month to cope with the downward pressure on the economy. One of the main reasons is that the core CPI in October165438+10 was only 65438+.
Imported inflationary pressure tends to ease.
Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year increase of PPI has gradually declined, and the year-on-year increase of CPI has gradually increased, and the scissors difference between the two has gradually narrowed.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the PPI in July increased by 4.2% year-on-year, down 1.9 percentage points from June, and down 4.9 percentage points from June this year. The main reason is the recent sharp drop in international crude oil prices, which led to a year-on-year decline in the prices of related industrial products.
At the beginning of July, international commodity prices fell into recession, and the prices of energy and metal commodities dropped significantly, but the market worries eased in the later period. Affected by abundant supply and weak demand, the prices of domestic industrial products are weaker than those of international ones, especially the prices of energy, metals and chemicals in the middle and upper reaches have dropped significantly. Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, among the 40 industries surveyed, the prices of 35 industries rose, two less than last month. Among the major industries, the price increase declined: the coal mining and washing industry rose by 20.7%, falling by 10.7 percentage points; The oil and gas exploration industry rose by 43.9%, down by 10.5 percentage points; Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose by 1.9%, down by 6.3 percentage points; Oil, coal and other fuel processing industries rose by 28.6%, down by 6. 1 percentage point; Chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry rose by 10.6%, down by 3.2 percentage points.
Wu Chaoming, vice president of Caixin Research Institute, said that it is expected that the growth rate of PPI will accelerate under the influence of the superposition of two forces during the year: First, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will accelerate in the third and fourth quarters of last year, and the high base will make the year-on-year growth rate fall rapidly; Second, the global economic slowdown in the future is a foregone conclusion, demand is declining, and the momentum of rising commodity prices is weakening. However, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, and the supply constraints faced by international commodities are difficult to improve. During the year, the import pressure generally tends to ease, but there is also great uncertainty.
In terms of CPI, the CPI in July increased by 2.7% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points higher than that in June, and 1.8 percentage points higher than that in June this year. Among them, the price of pork rose by 20.2% in July, which affected the CPI by about 0.27 percentage points.
Wu Chaoming said that a new round of pig cycle has begun, pork prices have risen sharply compared with last month, and the year-on-year growth rate has also turned from negative to positive because of the low base in the same period last year. Its pulling effect on CPI increased by 0.35 percentage points compared with last month, which is the main reason for the year-on-year growth rate of CPI.
Falling energy prices will cool CPI. Wen Bin said that in July, affected by the economic recession, international oil prices continued to fall, and China's refined oil products were lowered twice in late June and July, which pushed CPI energy prices down sharply and inflation down.
It is worth noting that although the current year-on-year increase of China's CPI has gradually increased, it is still significantly lower than the major economies in the world. For example, the CPI of the United States in June was 9. 1%, and the coordinated CPI of the euro zone in July was 8.9%. The main reason is that China did not have excessive currency during the response to the epidemic, which will provide space for dealing with future uncertainties.
Limited restrictions on monetary policy
CPI is an important macro indicator of the bond market. After the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, treasury bond futures rose in the short term, with the main contract in 10 rising by 0. 12%, the main contract in 5 years rising by 0.07% and the main contract in 2 years rising by 0.03%. In terms of cash bonds, the decline in the yields of government bonds and CDB bonds has expanded.
CPI data still has a certain impact on the bond market. The market expected the CPI to be 2.9% or even 3% in July, and the final published data was 2.7%, which was lower than the market expectation. Therefore, treasury bond futures stabilized and rebounded, and the yield of interest rate bonds fell by 1-2 percentage points. A trader of interest rate bonds at a state-owned bank in Shanghai said.
The fundamental reason why CPI affects the bond market is that CPI is an important consideration for the central bank's monetary policy operation. Traditionally, the four goals of the central bank's monetary policy are economic growth, full employment, price stability and balance of payments. Among them, price stability is an extremely important goal, and the specific reference index is CPI. The inflation target set by the government's work target this year is 3%. In the first half of this year, due to the low CPI operation, low inflation provided policy space for the loose operation of monetary policy. The central bank lowered the policy interest rate and LPR in June 5438+ 10, lowered the RRR in April, and lowered the LPR for more than five years in May.
Zou Lan, director of the monetary policy department of the central bank, said at the press conference of the State Council Office on July 13 that the current national economic operation tends to improve and the main economic indicators improve marginally, but the foundation for recovery is still not stable. In the second half of the year, the economic operation still faces great uncertainty and instability, and it still needs hard work to stabilize the economy. At the same time, we should pay attention to the changes in the inflation situation.
The market also pays special attention to the increase of CPI, especially the trend of pork prices. Regarding the trend of pig price, Chen Guanghua, head of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said at the press conference of the State Council Office in mid-July that the current pig production capacity is at a normal and reasonable level, and it is expected that the amount of pigs to be slaughtered in the second half of the year will be equivalent to that of the same period last year. Judging from the stock of fertile sows, the stock has been in the green and reasonable area of capacity regulation since this year, and it has risen for two consecutive months. Judging from the number of newborn piglets, the number of newborn piglets in the first half of the year is equivalent to the same period of last year, indicating that the number of live pigs on the market in the second half of the year will not be less than last year.
This round of pig price increase is mainly a recovery and seasonal increase, superimposed by some special factors, but the output is sufficient, and the pig price does not have the motivation to continue to rise sharply in the later period. Chen Guanghua said that it is often said in the industry that lsquo's mother is not worried about small, and small is not worried about big. In other words, if you have sows, you won't worry about piglets, and if you have piglets, you won't worry about big fat pigs. The data of fertile sows and newborn piglets show that the supply of fat pigs is guaranteed in the second half of the year.
Wen Bin believes that after pork prices entered the recovery cycle, the suppression of CPI in the past year has turned into a lifting effect. However, recently, the National Development and Reform Commission reminded relevant enterprises to maintain a normal slaughter rhythm and avoid blind pressure. As the off-season approaches, the short-term upward momentum of pork will fall back, and the performance of food price increase will remain moderate. He predicted that CPI will rise moderately in the future, and it is more likely that it will exceed 3% in some months (September 65438+February).
Wen Bin predicted that the average level of CPI this year will still be controlled within the policy objectives. At the same time, due to the weakening of the base last year and the momentum of rising global commodity prices, PPI will continue to decline. Considering CPI and PPI, inflation has little pressure on monetary policy.
Wu Chaoming said that CPI is expected to fluctuate higher during the year. In August and September, the CPI may break 3%, and then the probability will remain above 3%, but it is not expected to restrict monetary policy.
Wu Chaoming explained: First, the annual inflation level is lower than the target of 3%; Second, in the context of high global inflation, China's inflation level is moderate; Third, stabilizing employment and maintaining economic operation in a reasonable range are still the main objectives of monetary policy during the year, and liquidity will be at a reasonable and sufficient level.
Some market participants believe that considering the restriction of the Fed's interest rate hike on domestic monetary policy, the probability of lowering RRR and policy interest rate in the second half of the year is small, but the possibility of lowering LPR for more than five years still exists, with the aim of stabilizing the real estate market.
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