However, just after the May Day holiday, the prices of pigs and eggs have been cold one after another, the expectation of gasoline price increase has also changed, and fruits continue to be crazy. What happened?
Pig prices and egg prices have been cold one after another.
On May 5, the price of eggs was "cold", and the main producing areas showed a steady decline. Among them, Hebei, Shanxi, Northeast China and other places mainly reduced the price by 0.03-0. 1 1 yuan, while Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui and other places mainly stabilized, and some areas slightly decreased by 3 -7 cents.
The main sales area mainly declined, with Guangdong dropping by 0.05-0. 13 yuan, Beijing dropping by 0.02-0. 12 yuan, while Shanghai remained stable.
When the price of eggs is cold, I think there are several logics: 1, Guangdong and Beijing have finished stocking, and traders are cautious in purchasing.
2. As the temperature rises, the willingness of grassroots farmers to stock up will weaken.
3. The mask incident affected the demand for terminal eggs.
4. After the price of the sales area drops, the producing area has the will to follow up.
However, considering that the overall production capacity of laying hens is weak, the egg price will gradually stabilize, and the subsequent transportation and terminal consumption will resume, and the egg price is expected to rise.
On May 5, the price of live pigs was also "cold". Except Anhui, Jiangsu, Hainan, Shanxi, Hebei, Chongqing, Sichuan and Shaanxi, all other regions in the country remained stable, but there were differences in the decline between the north and the south, with the decline of 0.05-0.2 yuan in the north and 0. 1-0.5 yuan in the south.
At present, the mask incident in the northern region is still serious, and the terminal pork consumption is unfavorable, while the pig price has rebounded to around 7.8 yuan, which is basically close to the cost price of pig farms. The decrease in losses of pig farmers means that the losses of slaughter enterprises increase, and slaughter enterprises can only reduce prices in order to reduce losses.
At the breeding end, because the pig price has rebounded to the cost line, the enthusiasm for selling pigs has increased, creating opportunities for slaughter enterprises to reduce prices.
Before, the price of pigs rose excessively and almost reached the top. The next step will be to enter the downward adjustment stage.
It is predicted that the pig price will continue to decline in the short term, but considering that the production capacity is shrinking, consumption is recovering, and there is limited room for the pig price to fall, it is not a big problem to maintain it above 7 yuan in the end.
The expectation of gasoline price increase has changed.
Recently, international crude oil prices have fluctuated frequently. Some institutional analysts believe that considering the limited output of OPEC+oil, the demand is increasing at a rate of 3.67 million barrels per day, and European and American countries are boycotting Russian oil, the industry has always believed that gasoline prices are expected to increase.
However, several recent changes have changed the expectation of rising gasoline prices:
1, the overall epidemic situation in Asia has not improved, and the industry's anxiety about demand is still strong.
2. The Federal Reserve started the interest rate hike cycle, and the dollar strengthened, which was not good for oil prices.
All countries are trying to resist the price increase of crude oil. For example, European and American countries use a lot of grain to process biomass gasoline and diesel.
4. The domestic epidemic situation is repeated, and the demand for gasoline and diesel has a downward trend.
At present, the impact of negative factors on oil prices has been reflected. On May 4th, international crude oil closed mixed, NYMEX crude oil futures 06 contract fell by 2.67 USD/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil futures 06 contract rose by 65,438 USD +0.75 USD/barrel, and 07 contract fell by 2.665,438 USD +0, but the decline was obvious.
According to this trend, the domestic oil price adjustment cycle on May 16 is expected to usher in the second price reduction this year.
At present, the domestic price of No.92 gasoline is basically around 8.4 yuan. The highest is 9.57 yuan in Hainan, followed by 9.33 yuan in Tibet and 8.34 yuan in Shaanxi.
The price of No.95 gasoline is around 9 yuan, with the highest price being Hainan 10. 17 yuan, followed by 9.87 yuan in Tibet and 8.8 yuan in Shaanxi.
The price of No.98 gasoline is around 9.9 yuan, the highest is Hainan 1 1.53 yuan, followed by Tibet 10.99 yuan, and the lowest is Gansu 9.6 1 yuan.
Fruit is crazy.
According to official statistics, as of April 29th, the average price of six kinds of fruits monitored nationwide was 7.78 yuan/kg, up 1.8% from April 28th.
During the May Day holiday, the price of fruits rose obviously, especially the fresh fruits recently listed, such as Phyllanthus emblica, which became the famous fruits on the Internet in recent years because of its unique taste. As soon as it was listed, the price remained high, and now it has risen to 15 yuan. Although the quantity just listed is in short supply, the planting amount of Phyllanthus emblica is not large, and it is expected that the price will remain firm in the later period.
Many farmers also feel that they didn't expect this niche fruit to be popular at all, and some farmers also regret planting it late or less.
Another kind of fruit that is valued by everyone is Feizixiao litchi. Feizixiao has just been listed, and the price is very high. The origin price is around 15 yuan, and the retail price in other regions in 40 yuan has reached 30-30%.
This may be related to the decline in the output of Princess Laughter this year because some fruit farmers chose to change varieties after the price of Princess Laughter dropped sharply last year. In addition, it has just been listed, and the overall listing volume is small. By mid-May, with the increase of listing volume, the price will generally fall back to about 10 yuan.
Not only are the prices of newly listed fruits relatively high, but the prices of fruits stored in some cold storage are also not low, especially apples. Compared with the end of March, the average price of apples above 80# in Shandong has increased from 3.05 yuan/kg to 3.86 yuan/kg, with a cumulative increase of 26.56%. The average price of Shaanxi 70# and above rose from 2.62 yuan/kg to 3. 18 yuan/kg, with a cumulative increase of 2 1.37%.
Moreover, the inventory sales in some areas have ended, the fruit merchants are reluctant to sell, and the price of newly listed fruits is stimulated, and the price of apples is likely to continue to rise.
Of course, there are fruits with crazy price increases and fruits with crazy decline. It is understood that there are hundreds of tons of sugar oranges in Guangxi cold storage, and 50 cents a catty imported by local fruit farmers is not wanted. Black Beauty Watermelon, which was listed soon, also dropped from 3 yuan in late April to 1 yuan now.
On the one hand, it is impacted by other fresh fruits in the market, on the other hand, it has a great relationship with the sharp decline in the quality of fruits such as watermelon and sugar orange in recent years.