At the beginning of the new year, international oil prices showed a continuous upward trend. The two benchmark oil prices, new york oil price and North Sea Brent oil price, both stood above $60, which made the market's expectation of 20 18 oil price rising gradually.

By 65438+10.9, the futures price of light crude oil for February delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange was close to $62 per barrel, setting a new high in the past three years, while the Brent oil price in the North Sea was as high as $68, which may exceed $70. In just a few trading days, the oil price has increased by more than 2% compared with the end of last year, with the biggest increase being the New York Mercantile Exchange light crude oil futures, with a cumulative increase of nearly 3.3%.

In the analysis of major institutions, why did the international oil price reappear in the New Year? On the one hand, the agreement reached between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia to extend production reduction continues to "ferment". Prior to this, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries headed by Russia have been working hard to end the global crude oil surplus, and the implementation in 20 17 was good, which made the market have greater expectations for the efforts made by oil-producing countries to balance the surplus in 20 18. In fact, according to many analysts, the reason why Saudi Arabia and Russia can "hold together" to cut production is mainly because higher oil prices are a short-term favorable choice for both sides.

On the other hand, geopolitical factors are also a big "helper", leading to speculative forces entering the market to do more. In particular, the recent "riots" in Iran, an important oil producer, have worried the market that the supply of crude oil may be affected. Some analysts even believe that once Iran's oil production is completely destroyed, it may directly drive Brent oil prices to the mark of $0/00 per barrel. It is precisely because of the new balance of fundamentals and the influence of geopolitics that speculative forces continue to enter the market. According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, speculators' interest in crude oil has continued to heat up recently.