Figure 2-47 Iron ore price trend
In the first quarter, due to the good demand for downstream steel and abundant funds at the beginning of the year, the price of imported ore has always remained high; After entering the second quarter, with the weakening of downstream demand and the enhancement of foreign mine expansion expectations, the price of imported iron ore gradually weakened; Iron ore procurement was relatively weak in May and June, and the price of imported ore fell below $ 1 10 due to funding problems in June. At the end of August, the demand for downstream steel products weakened, the amount of foreign minerals increased, and the price of imported minerals fell slightly, fluctuating between 130 and 140 throughout September and October. 1June 18, iron ore futures went public, which provided an effective hedging tool for domestic enterprises to manage market risks; It is beneficial to change the unfavorable situation faced by China's iron and steel enterprises in pricing power; The use of RMB settlement is conducive to avoiding the loss of profits caused by exchange rate fluctuations; The introduction of iron ore futures has accelerated the pace of financialization of bulk commodities in China. In the same month, the State Council issued "Guiding Opinions on Resolving the Contradiction of Overcapacity", which can resolve the contradiction of overcapacity in the steel industry, help the steel industry adapt to the new changes in domestic and international economic development, and meet the new requirements of downstream industrial restructuring and transformation and upgrading; Conducive to the industry to improve the quality of development and economic benefits, and constantly enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises; It is conducive to the industry to increase energy conservation and emission reduction.
Copper prices generally continued the downward trend since 20 1 1. The average domestic copper price was 53,300 yuan/ton, down 6.9%. The copper price dropped from 58,654.38 yuan +00,000 yuan/ton in February to 50,500 yuan/ton in July, and then rose slightly to 56,543.8 yuan+00 yuan/ton in February. In the same period, the average spot price of copper in London metal market was $7,325/ton, down by 7.7%, and the downward trend was similar to that of domestic copper prices (Figure 2-48).
Figure 2-48 Trend of Copper Price at Home and Abroad
Looking at the trend of copper prices throughout the year, before February, the domestic copper market continued to rise, benefiting from the sharp rise in the external market and the good support of some downstream industries; From mid-February to the end of June, the copper market continued to plummet, causing its price to return to the cost line. The main reason for the plunge is the pressure of oversupply. After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand has not recovered, which is in sharp contrast to the slowdown in demand. The increase of domestic production and inventory; From July to August, the copper market rebounded, the downstream demand increased and the inventory decreased; Since September, with the increase of inventory in London, the global macro-level risks have increased, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to reduce the scale of bond purchases has increased, which has led to the decline of copper prices. Until the end of the year, the inventory in London decreased and the domestic industrial data improved, the copper market rebounded slightly and the market improved.
The price of aluminum shows a downward trend. The average spot price of domestic aluminum 1450 yuan/ton decreased by 7.3%; In the same period, the average spot price of LME was 1846 USD/ton, down 8.4%. Judging from the monthly data, the aluminum prices in the two places are on a downward trend month by month. /kloc-the highest domestic aluminum price is10.50 million yuan/ton in October, and the lowest is10.43 million yuan/ton in February (Figure 2-49).
Figure 2-49 Aluminum Price Trend at Home and Abroad
The price of gold at home and abroad shows a downward trend. The average domestic gold price was 283 yuan/gram, down 16.4%. In the same period, the average price of gold in London Gold Exchange was 14 1 1 USD/oz, down 15.4%. According to the monthly data, except for a slight rebound in August, the price of gold continued to fall all the time. The lowest price appeared in 65438+February, the domestic price was 244 yuan/gram, and the international price was 1235 USD/ounce. It decreased by 27.3% compared with the beginning of the year (Figure 2-50).
Figure 2-50 Trend of Gold Price at Home and Abroad
In the first half of the year, the international gold market continued its decline since the fourth quarter of last year, showing a downward trend, with two rounds of sharp falls in April and June respectively. Among them, from 1 to the beginning of April, the international gold price continued to decline slowly. The price of gold hovers around 1600 USD/oz, and the overall trend of gold price is weak, but it fluctuates little. From mid-April to early June, the international gold price fell sharply, and then entered a stage of slow adjustment. The main reason behind the plunge lies in the transfer of global asset allocation in the post-crisis era, the inflow of funds into high-yield markets and the insufficient demand for gold investment. After mid-June, triggered by the adjustment of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, the gold market began a new round of plunge, with the biggest one-day drop exceeding 5%, once falling below 1.200 USD/oz. From July to August, the price of gold only rebounded once. From September to the end of the year, the price of gold continued to fall. It is worth mentioning that in the second half of 20 13, the "cost support theory" began to heat up. Many people think that the price of gold has fallen to this level, which is close to the global average production cost of gold, and there is not much room for further decline. Therefore, after the Federal Reserve officially announced the reduction of quantitative easing in mid-June 65438+February, the price of gold did not hit a new low. Generally speaking, 20 13 became a year when the monetary attribute of gold weakened and the commodity attribute returned.
Domestic rare earth prices show a "V" trend, falling first and then rising. Europium oxide decreased from 5983 yuan/kg in June to 34 18 yuan/kg in June, and rose to 4600 yuan/kg in February. The price of dysprosium oxide dropped from 2 135 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 1248 yuan/kg in June, and then rose to 1805 yuan/kg in 65438+February; The price trend of terbium oxide is similar to that of the latter two rare earths. The lowest price appeared in June, which was 256 1 yuan/kg, and rose to 3540 yuan/kg in February. On the whole, the price of rare earths in 20 13 decreased compared with the previous year, among which Europium oxide decreased by 38.4%, Dysprosium oxide decreased by 5 1.7% and Terbium oxide decreased by 40.4% (Figure 2-5 1).
Figure 2-5 1 Price Trend of Important Rare Earth Products in China
In the first quarter, the price of dysprosium oxide continued to fall. Due to the lack of improvement in the downstream phosphor market, the market price support was weak in the second half of the month, and the prices of europium oxide and terbium oxide went down. In the second quarter, the market cracked down on private mines, which led to an upward trend in dysprosium oxide prices. However, due to the limited overall market demand, it is difficult for prices to rise. However, the prices of europium oxide and terbium oxide continued to fall until the end of June, but the increase was weak. In the third quarter, due to the market rumors of purchasing, storing and cracking down on private mines, the prices of three rare earth mines rose sharply. In September, due to the sufficient spot of traders and the low delivery price, the overall market was affected and prices generally fluctuated and fell. In the fourth quarter, due to overall overcapacity, market demand decreased and market prices continued to decline.