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What are the risks that investors in stock index futures may encounter?
Risk characteristics and types of stock index futures The market risk of stock index futures is large, involving a wide range, with the characteristics of amplification, complexity and prevention. The risk causes of stock index futures mainly include frequent fluctuation of stock index, leverage effect of margin trading, irrational speculation and imperfect market mechanism. The risk types of stock index futures are complex, which can be divided into uncontrollable risk and controllable risk from the perspective of whether the risk is controllable or not. From the perspective of trading links, it can be divided into agency risk, liquidity risk, leveling risk and delivery risk; Risks can be divided into exchange risk, brokerage risk, customer risk and government risk, while financial risks faced by investors can be divided into credit risk, market risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. Below we focus on the risk management of stock index futures from the perspective of uncontrollable risk and controllable risk. Prevention of Uncontrollable Risks in Stock Index Futures Uncontrollable risks refer to the occurrence and formation of risks that are beyond the control of the risk takers. This kind of risk generally comes from outside the stock index futures market and may have an impact on the relevant subjects in the market. (1) Classification and causes of uncontrollable risks: uncontrollable risks include two types: one is the risk of macro-environmental changes. This kind of risk is produced by affecting other financial markets and then the stock index futures market. Specifically, it can be divided into the risks caused by force majeure, the impact of international hot money and the risks caused by political, economic and social factors. The changes of these factors will affect investors' reasonable expectations of prices, especially the occurrence of sudden or accidental events, which will bring great risks. The other is policy risk. Whether the policies affecting the stock index futures market are reasonable or not depends largely on the managers' understanding and experience of the market. Such as unreasonable policies, frequent policy changes or lack of transparency in policy release. , may directly or indirectly affect the relevant subjects of the futures market to varying degrees, resulting in unpredictable losses, and then lead to risks. (2) Prevention of Uncontrollable Risks Although uncontrollable risks may occur in the stock index futures market, their roots are outside the futures market. Only by fundamentally improving the national economic situation, perfecting the market structure and legal system, especially the financial system, and adopting correct policy guidance can we prevent it. So, are we completely helpless about the risks brought by such problems? A series of risk control systems and measures in the futures market still play a certain role in preventing and controlling such risks. In addition, once this risk breaks out, the exchange can take a series of emergency measures to control the risk according to the handling methods of abnormal situations in the trading rules, such as suspending trading, closing positions within a time limit, raising the margin and adjusting the price limit. It is also necessary for the government to intervene in a timely and appropriate manner when the market faces major risks that it cannot resist. The moderate intervention of the government mainly includes policy guidance, revision of laws and regulations, and investment in the market to save the market. In this regard, we can learn from the experience of the Hong Kong government's intervention in the stock index futures market in the 1987 stock market crash and the 1998 financial defense war in August. 1987 10 19 Hong Kong stock index futures fell sharply due to the global stock market crash. After four days of suspension, the Hong Kong Futures Exchange opened down 33%. Many members failed to perform their duties and there was a large-scale breach of contract. Hong Kong Futures Clearing Company's HK$ 22.5 million was useless, and the exchange almost went bankrupt. In order to ensure the stability of the financial market, the Hong Kong government stepped in to rescue the market. 1997-98 during the Asian financial crisis, Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system was under great pressure. Some overseas funds attacked the Hong Kong dollar, Hong Kong stock market and futures market with the intention of pretending to attack the linked exchange rate. In essence, they make huge profits by shorting stock index futures. When the stock market fell unilaterally, which may cause the stock market to crash, the Hong Kong government intervened decisively in the market and repelled the attack of international speculators. Its operation method is to stop international speculators in the stock index futures market, buy blue chips in the spot market, and take many measures to strengthen the financial market order, so that the plan of international speculators to make huge profits fails. Three. Management of controllable risk of stock index futures controllable risk refers to the risk that can be controlled or managed through measures taken by relevant subjects in the futures market. Controllable risk is the focus of risk management in stock index futures market. (1) Types and causes of controllable risks. Controllable risks can be divided into futures exchange risks, futures brokerage company risks and investor risks. The root causes of this risk mainly include: mistakes and omissions in the rules of the exchange, failures in computer trading or communication systems, vicious and major violations by members or customers, poor management of brokerage companies, and mistakes in investors' investment decisions. (II) Management of controllable risks The management of controllable risks in futures can be divided into macro-market risk management and micro-market risk management (futures exchanges, brokerage companies and investors). The risk management of futures exchange is the key.