This is an inspiring poem, and this spirit deserves to be quoted by all walks of life, especially the words "tempering and bitter cold", which really tells the "low valley and pain point" of all walks of life. Only after this baptism can it really smell the fragrance. Similarly, it can enjoy the "rise" of the second brother and accept the "fall" of the second brother, because all this is true. Otherwise, you wouldn't be so miserable now, so no matter what happens now, please hold your horses, calm down, don't regret your decision, spend the "cold winter" of pig prices indifferently, and eventually you will have a bright future.
We often say "it never rains but it pours". When the pig price is low, the feed cost of raising pigs is also rising. At present, in addition to wheat and corn, the price of soybean meal, which is also used as feed raw material, is also running at a high level. Before the Russian-Ukrainian incident, the price of soybean meal had risen sharply due to factors such as the sharp reduction of soybean production in South America caused by dry weather. This trend was promoted after the Russian-Ukrainian incident. Considering the restoration of Ukrainian export port facilities,
On the whole, the factors that push up food prices mainly include four aspects: First, the COVID-19 epidemic has impacted the global supply, raising the cost of food trade, thus raising the price; Second, countries have adopted quantitative easing monetary policy, and global excess liquidity has triggered global inflation, boosting the prices of bulk commodities such as grain; Third, speculation in the grain futures market intensifies the rise in food prices; Fourth, the recent events in Russia and Ukraine have led to changes in the relationship between supply and demand, affecting the grain pattern, and then affecting corn and soybean meal at the feed end.
However, as the influence of a series of uncertain factors on the market gradually fades and the supply of other countries increases under the price stimulus, it is expected that the grain price will gradually stabilize.
In fact, the rise and fall of feed prices and the rise and fall of downstream pig prices are not necessarily related, but only play an indirect role.
Because the operation of pig price follows the logic of "pig cycle", just like the current price increase of feed raw materials, it does not affect the downward trend of pig price at all. Under the dual factors of "ice and fire", farmers are under great pressure, and at the same time, due to the recent epidemic spread, some farmers have some problems in feed transportation. In order to avoid the interruption of livestock production and supply caused by transportation problems, relevant departments have issued announcements one after another to fully ensure the smooth production and transportation of livestock and poultry.
According to industry analysis, the fundamentals of market supply and demand are difficult to reverse. In the short term, pig prices continue to show a "weak shock" pattern. However, the central government is about to start the third round of frozen pork storage this year, and the epidemic situation has been gradually controlled, and market consumption has improved. It is expected that the downward space of pig prices is limited. At the same time, the cold winter in the industry is conducive to accelerating the production capacity of live pigs, and a new round of cycle is expected to come soon. I wish you a "dawn" after the "dark period" of the industry.
According to the systematic monitoring of pig price, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 2 and fell by 5 to 19, and the stable area accounted for 73% of all the monitored, and the overall live pig market showed a trend of "stable middle and weak decline".
# Pig price #
(Source: Pig Price System)
On the whole, compared with yesterday, the pig market has improved today, and some areas have rebounded slightly. However, considering that the fundamentals of loose supply in the domestic market are difficult to improve, consumption is gradually entering a cyclical off-season, and pig prices do not have the basis for rising against the trend in the short term, it is recommended that farmers take a long view.
Judging from the wholesale prices of white pigs in Beijing and Shanghai, the wholesale prices of white pigs in Beijing and Shanghai showed a steady and rising trend, while the prices of white pigs in Beijing market remained stable and the market trading enthusiasm was poor. The average transaction price in Shanghai market rose, and the average price in some markets rose by 0. 15-0.25 yuan/kg. The price of white bars in the wholesale market shows a steady trend, and the market is affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, so the transaction uncertainty is obvious.
Judging from the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, it is more difficult for slaughter enterprises to purchase, the enthusiasm of farmers in the north to slaughter is reduced, and it is more difficult for slaughter enterprises to purchase at low prices. The purchasing smoothness of slaughter enterprises in the south is good, and some enterprises have a wait-and-see mood. The whole market is affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, and the transportation of pigs in Northeast China is limited. Some traders have a certain bullish mood. The pig price of a few farming groups in the north has risen, while the pig price of southern farming groups has continued to run weakly.
Market trend of live pig prices tomorrow: Based on the analysis of recent factors in the live pig market, it is expected that the live pig prices will show a phenomenon of "big stability and small adjustment" tomorrow.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the live pig market and grasp the market dynamics.