The American economy is declining and the number of unemployed people is increasing. A few days ago, the United States made a joke, and the unemployment statistics were wrong. The unemployment rate is underestimated by three percentage points, and the unemployment rate reaches 16.3%, instead of the previously announced 13.3%, which is three percentage points less.
1, the first quarter GDP of the United States
The US Department of Commerce announced that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of the United States was -4.8%, far lower than the previous value of 2. 1%, and the biggest quarterly decline since 2009, which was better than Goldman Sachs' forecast a month ago. On March 30th, Goldman Sachs predicted that the real GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was -9.0%.
In 2020, the GDP gap between China and the United States will inevitably narrow further.
The blockade that began in mid-March in the United States hit the American economy hard, and a large number of enterprises closed down, and the service industry, as the pillar of the American economy, suffered heavy losses.
It is now estimated that GDP will drop by 52.8% in the second quarter, resulting in a sharp drop in the total GDP of the United States, while China will achieve a rebound in economic growth in the next few quarters, further narrowing the gap with the United States in GDP.
According to the data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April, it is predicted that in 2020, the GDP of the United States will decrease by 5.9%, while China will achieve positive growth, and the economic growth rate will reach 1.2%. Experts from the Far East Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences said recently that China's GDP growth rate may increase to 4% in 2020. According to the economic growth gap between China and the United States, China's GDP will account for more than 70% of the United States in 2020, and the gap will be further narrowed.
2. Will the US economy rebound in the third quarter?
Judging from the current situation, the biggest reason for the economic downturn in the United States is the domestic epidemic, which leads to a decline in economic activities, a decline in economic indicators, an increase in unemployment, and a heavy blow to the service industry. In 20 19, the nominal GDP of the United States was as high as $265,438 +0.43 trillion, and the service industry was as high as $65,438 +07.36 trillion, accounting for 8 1 of the total American economy. At present, because of the epidemic, the service industry is basically shut down. Whether the American economy can rebound in the future depends on whether the epidemic situation in the United States can be effectively controlled. Judging from the data released at present, the newly confirmed cases in the United States have rebounded again, with a total of 2 million confirmed cases, accounting for nearly 30% of the total confirmed cases in the world. 100 Among the confirmed cases, 30 cases are from the United States, which is really scary.
According to previous experts' models, the turning point in the United States will come in May, but it is already early June, and the turning point of the American epidemic has not yet arrived. Judging from the current data, the epidemic in the United States is likely to last longer, the epidemic can not be controlled, and the service industry can not recover, so I don't think GDP will rebound in the third quarter. It is expected that the GDP of the United States may decline even more in the third quarter, depending on the situation of epidemic control.