However, after 2002 1 got off to a good start, individual funds fell sharply in1and 15, which once again caused many people to "panic" and wondered whether the 20021fund market would usher in a bear market. Can you continue to buy funds?

202 1 1 15, the top 20 declines were wine, food, consumption, 5G and so on. Among them, the first place is the star fund dealer CSI Liquor, with 56.8 billion plates.

202 1 1 15 The top 20 declines in the previous week were military industry and wine. Basically, they are all sectors that have increased too much in the previous period.

For this phenomenon, as long as we look at the increase in the past year, it is normal to go down if it rises more!

In addition, from April 4th to 8th, 20021+654381in just five trading days, the fund subscribed for 365438+700 million copies. According to1the lowest value on October 4th 1.4734, there are more than 4.67 billion funds subscribed, which is simply too hot, 65,438+a day.

Generally speaking, if the fund falls, it will be graded, including short-term adjustment, mid-line adjustment and long-term adjustment.

What's more, the decline depends on what kind of decline. Regulatory decline is allowed and destructive decline is not allowed.

Generally speaking, the fund market and the stock market are closely linked. Judging from the stock market of 5438+1October 15 in June, liquor, military industry and other high-end stocks with large gains in the previous period performed poorly. Judging from the daily limit and the number of daily limit on Friday, the market is still rising more and falling less.

As for 202 1, should we continue to buy funds? In other words, it is actually asking, is 202 1 a bull market or a bear market? My judgment is as follows:

The probability of 1 and 202 1 is still a structural market.

If you notice, from June to July, 2020, there are many debates about whether there is a bull market. In fact, the market in 2020 has shown that if the stock market goes up and down as before, the all-round bull market is gone forever. Stock market registration system, delisting system, T+0 and 20% price rise and fall reform, etc. Before, the method of speculating assets failed, and the policy was to strengthen "fundamental investment", so the forecast of 202 1 is still a structural market, and the performance of this market fund will be more obvious.

2. The overall index is high before the meeting and then low.

At present, this is almost the knowledge of the entire institutional investment circle. I said before that the index is high because the A-share market has a wave of spring rising prices almost every year. This is mainly because the A-share market often has a data window period in the first quarter, and the liquidity of funds before the superposition festival is fully promoted, and the whole year has made a good start for four consecutive days. I believe everyone has noticed.

If the liquidity is recovered, the market is likely to sharply reduce the valuation. In history, the market final results caused by loose liquidity are mostly not very good.

In my opinion, we should be cautious at the end of the first quarter. Of course, watch this while walking. In short, we should always pay attention to prevent someone from breaking the disk in advance.

Funds are long-term investments. If you buy the right fund, you can make a profit even if you buy it at the top of the mountain, but everyone has their own investment strategy. Next, let me talk about my investment strategy of 202 1:

1, lower expectations, give priority to defense, and keep last year's profit is victory.

Remind everyone again that the income expectation should be lowered in 2-2 1 year. As I said before, it is estimated that 80% of people will eventually lose money in 202 1 year, and you will win if you don't lose money in 202 1 year.

2. Grasp structural opportunities.

The investment direction of 202 1 is unpredictable, but there will definitely be some structural opportunities. If you can grasp these structural opportunities on the basis of controlling risks, your investment income will not be bad.

3. Continue to maintain a balanced style.

202 1 is still a year of high uncertainty, and there are many uncertainties in the change of epidemic situation and global economic recovery.

At present, the expectation of the organization is that the style will be more balanced this year, so the best way is to choose a balanced fund or build a balanced portfolio.

As long as you have a calm mind and invest carefully on the basis of controlling risks, perhaps the final income will exceed expectations.

202 1, the blind investment of the fund is likely to cause huge losses. The madness of 2020 may not be repeated. The epidemic will pass sooner or later, and the global water release will pass sooner or later.