In p>222, the real estate policy entered a loose cycle. Under the guidance of the general tone of "housing and not speculating", the regulatory authorities issued many favorable policies, from supporting demand to supporting enterprises, and the policy intensity continued to increase, at the same time, it also released space for local governments to make policies according to the city.
According to the statistics of the Central Finger Research Institute, as of December 26th, more than 33 provinces, cities and counties in China have issued more than 1, housing market easing policies, reaching the peak in recent years.
judging from the policies issued by various places, the policies mainly involve optimizing the purchase restriction policy, reducing the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate, increasing the amount of provident fund loans, granting housing subsidies, reducing the sales restriction period, reducing transaction taxes and fees, etc. Meanwhile, the mortgage interest rates in many places have fallen to historical lows. The transaction process of second-hand houses is also being simplified. For example, Shenzhen, Nanjing and other places promote the "transfer with mortgage" mode, and Beijing tries out the "serial bill" business of stock house transactions, which is conducive to opening up the transaction chain and reducing the replacement cost.
More than 3 provinces, cities and counties have issued more than 1, policies
Since the beginning of 222, demand-side policies have been continuously adjusted and optimized.
in terms of cost reduction, in 222, the central bank cut interest rates three times, and the LPR*** for five years or more was lowered by 35 basis points, which was the biggest year of interest rate reduction after the mortgage interest rate was changed to LPR in 219. At the same time, the central bank and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission lowered the lower limit of mortgage interest rate several times. In May, the central bank and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission made it clear that the lower limit of commercial personal housing loan interest rate for the first home was adjusted to not less than the quoted interest rate of the loan market for the corresponding period minus 2 basis points; At the end of September, the central bank and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission successively released heavy profits, and gradually relaxed the lower limit of the interest rate of the first set of commercial personal housing loans for some cities.
According to the monitoring data of the Central Finger Research Institute, up to now, 3 cities have reduced the interest rate of the first home loan to below 4%, including Yangjiang, Qingyuan, Yunfu, Zhanjiang, Jining, Wuhan, Guiyang, Jiangmen, Yichang, Xiangyang, Tianjin, Baotou, Fuyang, Shijiazhuang, Qinhuangdao, Kunming, Dalian, Dali, Luzhou, Anqing, Enshi, Wenzhou and Ruian.
loan interest rates in some cities have fallen to historical lows. Shijiazhuang and Wenzhou in second-tier cities are currently implementing the first set of commercial loans with the lowest interest rates of 3.8%, while Qingyuan and Zhuzhou in third-and fourth-tier cities have the lowest interest rates of 3.7%.
At the same time, the central bank lowered the interest rate of the first individual housing provident fund loan by 15 basis points after seven years. Since October 1, 222, the interest rate of the first home provident fund loan for more than five years has dropped to 3.1%.
In terms of tax reduction, in September, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation pointed out that taxpayers who sold their own houses and repurchased their houses in the market within one year after the sale of their existing houses would be given preferential tax refund for the personal income tax paid for the sale of their existing houses. Among the local regulatory policies, Wuxi, Shenyang and other cities have reduced the exemption period of individual housing transfer value-added tax from 5 years to 2 years, and over 1 cities have issued deed tax subsidies and reduced the deed tax rate.
At the same time, in terms of lowering the threshold, since 222, more than 3 provinces, cities (counties) have issued more than 1, policies, including optimizing the purchase restriction policy, reducing the down payment ratio, increasing the amount of provident fund loans, etc. At the end of the year, the policy optimization of core first-and second-tier cities increased, and the policies of cities such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xi 'an, Nanjing, Wuhan and Beijing continued to be adjusted.
on the supply side, in November, a number of heavy policies were implemented, and the policy support of the supply side was also significantly increased. On the 11th, the Central Bank and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued Circular No.254 on Doing a Good Job in Financial Support for the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market, involving six specific measures, such as keeping the real estate financing stable and orderly, actively doing a good job in the financial service of "guaranteeing the property", actively cooperating with the risk disposal of the trapped real estate enterprises, protecting the legitimate rights and interests of housing finance consumers according to law, adjusting some financial management policies in stages, and increasing financial support for housing leasing.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research in the Index Division of the Central Finger Research Institute, pointed out that the core logic of the policy lies in: First, providing financing support to housing enterprises, supporting the debt extension of housing enterprises, alleviating the financial pressure of enterprises and stabilizing the expectations of market participants; The second is to provide support for individual housing credit and promote the recovery of market sales; The third is to "guarantee the delivery of the building" to solve the problem of faster delivery, boost market sentiment and stabilize the confidence of buyers. In the future, the financial pressure of enterprises will be alleviated to some extent, and time will be exchanged for space; Demand-side policy support is expected to be further strengthened to improve the activity and enthusiasm of market sales; The funds and policies of "Baojiaolou" will accelerate the fall and stabilize the expectations of buyers.
At the same time, on November 28th, CSRC announced five measures to adjust and optimize the equity financing of real estate enterprises, which will be implemented from now on. These include: resuming mergers and acquisitions and supporting financing of listed companies involved in housing; Resume the refinancing of listed real estate enterprises and listed companies involved in housing; Adjust and improve the listing policy of real estate enterprises in overseas markets; Further play the role of REITs in revitalizing the stock assets of housing enterprises; Actively play the role of private equity investment funds.
According to the incomplete statistics of Securities Daily, as of December 25th, 32 listed housing-related enterprises have planned equity refinancing, among which 8 H-share housing enterprises have issued rights issue financing, and 24 A-share housing-related enterprises have issued financing announcements for non-public offering of shares.
what room is there for the property market regulation policy?
It is worth mentioning that senior leaders have emphasized the importance of real estate many times recently, and preventing and resolving real estate risks has become an important content in 223.
Liu He, Vice Premier of the People's Republic of China delivered a written speech at the fifth round of China-EU dialogue between business leaders and former senior officials on December 15th. Liu He pointed out that real estate is a pillar industry of the national economy. In view of the current downside risks, we have issued some policies and are considering new measures to improve the balance sheet of the industry and guide the market expectation and confidence to pick up.
The responsible comrades of the Central Finance Office said that we should fully realize the importance of the real estate industry. The real estate chain is long and involves a wide range, and it is a pillar industry of the national economy, accounting for about 7% of GDP, and the construction industry accounts for 14%; Land transfer income and real estate-related taxes account for nearly half of the local comprehensive financial resources, accounting for 6% of urban residents' household assets, and real estate loans plus loans with real estate as collateral account for 39% of the total loan balance, which has an important impact on financial stability and is an industry with strong spillover and systematic importance.
At the same time, the responsible comrades of the Central Finance Office pointed out: "There are still some restrictive policies that hinder the release of consumer demand in housing consumption and other fields, and these consumption potentials should be released."
In this regard, Zhao Xiuchi, a professor in capital university of economics and business and vice president of Beijing Real Estate Law Society, told The Paper that at present, due to the city's policy, the policies of restricting purchases and loans have been adjusted, but they still can't meet the needs of the release of housing consumption in the market. Some outdated policies of restricting purchases and loans need to be adjusted urgently, and it is suggested that the liberalization of restrictions on purchases and loans can be greater and more precise.
so, what room is there for the follow-up property market regulation policy?
Zhao Xiuchi believes that all localities should further sort out the restrictions on purchases and loans based on population, talents and industrial policies, and increase support for just-needed and improved demand; Pre-tax deduction of comprehensive remittance for house purchase and rental should be calculated according to each employee, rather than only one person in a family can deduct it; The pre-tax deduction for renting and buying a house should be treated equally. At present, the maximum deduction for renting a house in Beijing can be 1,5 yuan, and the loan to buy a house can only be deducted from 1 yuan, which does not achieve both rent and purchase; The down payment and loan interest rate of just-needed and improved demand should be further reduced; We should implement the policy of recognizing housing and not recognizing loans; Ordinary housing standards should be dynamically adjusted, and both house prices and housing standards should be redefined; 1% developers' self-sustaining commercial housing projects that only rent but not sell need to make corresponding adjustments to the lease period or rental and sales policies according to the actual situation of the project.
Chen Wenjing pointed out that it is expected that in 223, under the keynote of "housing and not speculating", there will be room for policy optimization at both ends of supply and demand, and the policy intensity is expected to be further strengthened. In core first-and second-tier cities, especially core second-tier cities, there is a lot of room for policy optimization, such as continuing to adjust in terms of purchase restriction and "recognizing housing and lending", and the expectation of policy optimization in first-tier cities is also increasing, with the existence of reducing mortgage interest rates, down payment ratio and taxes and fees. On the enterprise side, reasonable financing needs will continue to be supported, the financing chain of housing enterprises is expected to be further unblocked, and the funding of enterprises is expected to be improved, especially the financial support of high-quality housing enterprises in the head will continue to be strengthened; "Guarantee the delivery of the building" is still the focus, and the special loan and matching funds will be accelerated, which is expected to make more substantial progress, which will promote the expected improvement of buyers.
how will the market go in p>223 and when will the property market stabilize?
as for the outlook of the market outlook, the Central Index Research Institute estimates that the characteristics of the national real estate market in 223 are: "the sales volume and price are stabilizing, and the adjustment situation of newly started area is difficult to change, and investment may continue to decline".
According to the report of the Central Finger Research Institute, in the short term, the peak of domestic epidemic infection is not over yet, and the macroeconomic recovery is relatively slow. It will still take time for buyers' income expectations and home ownership confidence to be restored. It is expected that the sales market will be the fastest or stabilize in the second quarter of next year.
according to the report of the middle finger research institute, the property market performance of different cities will still be divided in 223. Among them, there are certain adjustment expectations in the policies of first-tier cities in 223, and the transaction area of commercial housing is expected to increase steadily, and the market recovery situation in Beijing and Shanghai may gradually emerge. It is predicted that the new housing market in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen will be closed or stable as a whole, and the enthusiasm of buying houses under policy optimization is expected to increase. Guangzhou's new housing market adjustment situation is the most obvious in 222, and there is much room for policy optimization in 223, which is expected to drive the market to gradually improve.
There is a large room for policy optimization in second-tier cities, and the overall price increase is stable. The market of core second-tier cities may gradually recover, and some cities may face the pressure of rising house prices. The report shows that in 222, Wuhan, Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Tianjin and other cities were affected by the epidemic situation and other factors, and the transaction area of new houses dropped sharply. In 223, there was room for further optimization of policies in some cities. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, the market is expected to recover, but some cities have a long period of clearing the saleable area and weak motivation for rising house prices; The relaxation policies in Hangzhou, Chengdu and Xi 'an have been implemented, and there is still room for optimization in the future. It is expected that the market demand will be gradually released after the epidemic, and house prices may face certain upward pressure. In addition, in cities with weak urban fundamentals, there is little room for policy optimization, and it still takes time for the market to stabilize and recover, and the market may still be in the bottom consolidation period.
The volume and price of third-and fourth-tier cities may continue to decline, and many cities have large inventories, so house prices are still facing certain adjustment pressure. In 223, with the situation of epidemic prevention and control gradually improving, some third-and fourth-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are expected to gradually stabilize and recover under strong fundamentals. However, the clearance period of saleable area in many cities exceeds 2 months, and the trend of house price adjustment may continue.