Edit | Guo Nan

202 1 is a year when top fund managers face great challenges. As the last report of the year, the weight of the four quarterly reports is also different from the past, and there is usually a retrospective summary of the year, which has a lot to watch. Read a school to sort out some quarterly reports of fund managers.

Zhang Kun of E Fund rarely talked about the macroeconomic situation and policies. Jiao Wei of Yin Hua Fund made a "reflection on shock and recovery period" after the fund's net value dropped at a high level. Zhao Yi of Agricultural Bank of China believes that the share price of photovoltaic has been ahead of the fundamentals. Guangfa Fund Liu believes that the style differentiation will continue in 2022. Zhou Yingbo, a China-Europe fund, summed up the experience of investing in Hong Kong stocks "Xiangjiang is a very important capability boundary" and summarized 2022 in one sentence.

It is worth mentioning that Zhou Yingbo truthfully recorded the review, reflection and prospect in the quarterly report of China-Europe Innovation Future Fund (closed period 18 months), with more than 4,000 words. With the arrival of the fund opening period (April this year), Public Offering of Fund investors may never see the weekly quarterly report again.

The last egg in this article comes from Yin Hua Fund Li Xiaoxing. When the news of Zhou Yingbo's resignation came out earlier, Li Xiaoxing forwarded the news in a circle of friends with an online lyric: "Lonely thoughts are hidden in a decent place, and the memories of the past are slowly stranded", and the people who eat melons said that they could not understand it. However, Li Xiaoxing once again quoted this lyric in the four quarterly reports, which solved the mystery.

E Fund for Zhang Kun:

The downward pressure on the economy is only phased.

The investment circle has great expectations for today's stock market.

The latest management scale of Zhang Kun is1019.35 million yuan. In the recently disclosed four quarterly reports, Zhang Kun not only reviewed the quarterly market conditions, but also rarely expressed his views on the macroeconomic situation and policies. The following is taken from E Fund Asia Select:

"In the fourth quarter, the fund slightly increased its stock position, adjusted its structure, increased its allocation to industries such as technology and consumption, and reduced its allocation to industries such as finance and real estate. In terms of individual stocks, it still holds high-quality companies with excellent business model, clear industry structure and strong competitiveness.

February 2002165438, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that "persisting in taking economic construction as the center is the requirement of the party's basic line", and China's economy and enterprises themselves contain considerable potential. Therefore, we believe that the current downward pressure on the economy is only phased, and we are optimistic about the long-term prospects of China's economy, and firmly believe that China's economic strength will eventually reach the level of developed countries. In this case, we believe that a group of high-quality companies can create value for customers, improve the efficiency and productivity of the whole society, and have the ability to continuously create free cash flow for shareholders.

202 1, some share prices of these enterprises lag behind the broader market, but we have always believed that "to make a good investment, it is more important to stare at the stadium rather than the scoreboard". We will carefully examine the fundamentals of the enterprises in the portfolio and choose enterprises with outstanding competitiveness and high long-term logical certainty to hold for a long time. We believe that after 202 1 year valuation digestion, the valuation of some high-quality enterprises has become attractive. In the dimension of 3-5 years, the growth probability of enterprise performance will be projected on the growth of its market value. "

Yin Hua Jiao Wei Foundation:

After the high level falls back, it is still in the shock repair period.

Jiao Wei's quarterly report has always been very literary. In this quarterly report, he said that the past 202 1 was a year in which the investment philosophy and logic of fund managers were greatly challenged. Under the sudden change of policy environment and market style after July, the withdrawal history of fund net value is rare, and it is still in the shock recovery period after the high and low.

Jiao Wei said, "With a strong desire for survival, he reflected on the logic of market changes and investment issues, and made a parallel move of persistence and adjustment." (Sadly, as of June 65438+1October 2 1, the theme of Yin Hua's affluence has dropped by over 10% this year, and the shock continues. )

Returning to the quarterly report itself, Jiao Wei emphasized that in 2022, it is more important to return to common sense. Part of the content is as follows:

"In the past days, whenever managers have doubts about the deviation of market style and combination, returning to common sense is also the basic means to get through difficult times. For example, when the target company with heavy positions is troubled by non-corporate fundamental problems such as consumption tax and residents' income, will we return to common sense, that is, will the economy and income always improve? Is it human nature to pursue a better life on the sensory level? Is consumption one of the three major elements of the national economy? Does liquor contribute to the government's main tax sources? These simple common sense questions help us through the difficult days of consumption and investment.

Returning to medical investment, we also believe that we need to pay equal attention to reality and common sense. The reality at this stage is indeed that the epidemic dividend has ended, medical insurance and centralized procurement have severely suppressed the price of innovative drugs, and the policy support for traditional Chinese medicine has caused water loss in other medical sectors, just like before the medical insurance reform. But back to common sense, does China need progress and a leading position in biomedicine? The long-term prospect of pharmaceutical investment does not seem desperate.

Back to the third aspect of common sense, the market will eventually return to equilibrium. Under the influence of some factors, the consumption and medical valuation pushed up in the early stage will always return to the mean, the gap between supply and demand magnified by external factors will always be balanced, and the cracks in industries with excessive valuation difference will always be repaired, so some industries ignored by managers will always return to the field of vision in the form of market performance. We believe that the market will eventually regain its balance in 2022, but the test for managers will be even worse. It is our main preparation for 2022 to continue to invest in the unbroken industry pattern and expand our ability circle at the same time.

Agricultural Bank of China Huili Zhao Yi:

Photovoltaic share price has run in front of the fundamentals.

Zhao Yi, the champion of public offering in 2020, also performed well last year. He made it clear in the fourth quarterly report that for the photovoltaic industry, considering that the stock price has run ahead of the fundamentals, the price/performance ratio is relatively poor when the valuation is already high, and enterprises with core competitiveness can only be selected in a longer time dimension. The specific views are as follows:

Looking forward to the next quarter, for the photovoltaic industry, at present, the price of upstream silicon materials has begun to loosen, and the prices of other links have also begun to fall. From a fundamental point of view, there continues to be a game between various sectors of the industry. Considering that the stock price has run ahead of the fundamentals and the price/performance ratio is relatively poor under the condition of high valuation, we can only choose enterprises with core competitiveness in a longer time dimension.

For new energy vehicles, it is still a sector with very high certainty and growth rate. The scheduling of leading enterprises in the whole battery industry chain is still at a high level. As the production capacity of first-line enterprises is expanding one after another, the scheduling in the first quarter is still improving compared with the previous quarter. However, considering that the production capacity of each link will be released one after another next year, the balance between supply and demand will begin to reverse, and enterprises that transform new energy sources this year are also facing the problem of realizing their performance. So there will be differentiation from the plate next year. Considering that the battery link is in the situation of multi-application vibration, it is necessary to choose companies with core competitiveness, continue to maintain the configuration idea of new energy vehicle batteries and materials, and superimpose high-end manufacturing industries such as photovoltaic, military industry and automotive grade semiconductors.

Guangfa Fund Liu Geyu: Style differentiation will continue.

As a representative of the growth school, Liu Geyu's judgment this year is that the situation of style differentiation may continue in 2022. Under the business model of sustainable growth, when the growth rate of assets continues to exceed expectations, the market is more willing to give such assets a higher valuation level. The following are specific views:

"Regarding the reasons for the year-round style differentiation, we believe that on the one hand, the core assets have experienced a rise in the past few years, and the relative valuation level is already at a historical high. At the same time, the prosperity has not been significantly improved to correspond to the relatively high valuation; On the other hand, cyclical, power utilities and new energy sectors have their own upward catalysis. The upward prosperity of cyclical and resource-based industries comes from the rapid price increase under the change of supply and demand pattern, and the power and new energy sectors benefit from the carbon-neutral background, and the prosperity has risen steadily.

The situation of style differentiation may continue in 2022. The potential value of assets or our income expectation for a class of assets depends on the performance growth rate of such assets, the sustainability of growth rate and the valuation level that the market is willing to give to such assets. Under the business model of sustainable growth, when the growth rate of asset performance continues to exceed expectations, the market is more willing to give such assets a higher valuation level, and vice versa. At present, during the transition period of old and new kinetic energy in China's macro-economy, different assets are in different boom stages, so asset differentiation is a high probability event. "

China Europe Fund Zhou Yingbo:

Xiangjiang is a very important capability boundary.

Next, let's take a look at the quarterly report just released tonight, which is also from a top fund manager-China Europe Fund Zhou Yingbo.

Zhou Yingbo has withdrawn from most products, and only keeps the closed-end hybrid fund of China-Europe innovation in the future1August. This fund has four managers. Judging from the writing, the author of this quarterly report is Zhou Yingbo.

The text is more than 4,000 words, including Zhou Yingbo's summary of the gains and losses of six years' work experience and the investment prospect for the new year. Considering that Zhou Yingbo will leave his post completely after the fund is closed in April this year, please look forward to it and cherish it ~

Zhou Yingbo summed up the gains and losses of Hong Kong stock investment in the quarterly report. "Charles Munger said,' It is the most important thing to determine the boundaries of your own abilities'. Now, Xiangjiang is still a very important boundary of our ability. "

"From the experience of the past few years, the Hong Kong stock market has the following remarkable characteristics for us: First, the offshore market, the liquidity is affected by both the mainland and the world, and the market fluctuates greatly between optimism and pessimism; Second, a high degree of marketization has attracted a number of domestic leading enterprises in the new economy to go public. From the perspective of the supply of high-quality listed companies, this is a market that cannot be ignored; Third, domestic institutional investors have insufficient investment experience. Judging from our practice in the past four years, the effect of investing in Hong Kong stocks is not satisfactory. At the same time as the above summary, we have reduced the importance of Hong Kong stock allocation in the fund portfolio in investment strategy, and hope to accumulate more solid research experience of Hong Kong stock companies in the next few years. "

Looking forward to 2022, Zhou Yingbo's view is "wait patiently for the bottom of the economy, carefully identify the new energy bubble, and actively seek new kinetic energy". Details are as follows:

"Patiently waiting for the economy to bottom out" is mainly because we are worried that the sharp decline in real estate will increase the risk of hard landing, and global central banks have also begun to withdraw from easing policies after the epidemic. The external demand at a high base is not optimistic, and China's economy is very resilient, but it will take a process for the growth rate to bottom out, and patience will be needed in 2022. From the end of 20 15, the real estate boom cycle driven by the monetization of shed reform and deep urbanization lasted for five years. The birth rate and urbanization rate represent long-term repression factors, the national policy of "staying and not speculating" represents medium-term repression factors, and the large-scale outbreak of private housing enterprises since the second half of 2002/kloc-0 represents short-term repression factors. Be cautious about the real estate industry chain that only drops for two quarters in the long, medium and short term.

"Carefully screening the new energy bubble" does not mean that we are bearish on the new energy industry, but we hope to be more alert to risks in the crowded trading market. 202 1 we have seen the explosion of new energy vehicles. Photovoltaic power generation has basically achieved parity on the power generation side in the past two years, and it is expected to accelerate the replacement of traditional energy sources such as thermal power in the future. Driven by the global will of "carbon neutrality and peak carbon dioxide emission", the most obvious industrial change in the 2020s was the "energy revolution". China was basically absent from the first and second industrial revolutions. In the third information technology revolution, China deeply participated in the role of division of labor and cooperation and foreign trade processing. In the fourth energy revolution, China's industrial chain led the world by embracing and leading the industrial chain in an all-round way. This is a brand-new situation in modern times, which will inevitably bring comprehensive investment opportunities to the A-share market in the next 5- 10 years.

At the same time, however, it should be noted that after the rapid growth in 2020-202 1 year, all links in the industrial chain of new energy vehicles and photovoltaics have ushered in huge-scale investment and production expansion, and the supply and demand situation of different links in the industrial chain will change greatly in the future. We are optimistic about the accelerated growth after the penetration rate of new energy vehicles breaks through 10%, and we are also optimistic about the comprehensive popularization and substitution of photovoltaics on the power generation side, as well as the great potential of new energy storage in transforming the power system. But in 2022, when the stocks in the industrial chain are expected to be optimistic, we need to identify risks and opportunities more in the bubble.

"Actively looking for new kinetic energy", the economic structure transformation has reached the stage where the old kinetic energy ebbs and the new kinetic energy stands in the foreground. In addition to the "energy revolution", we have noticed that the application of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, virtual reality (meta-universe) and synthetic biology is close to maturity, and related industrial chains have begun to grow rapidly, which is an investment opportunity worthy of attention in the future. At the beginning, new opportunities in the new era are always budding, difficult to calculate and full of uncertain paths, but their most fundamental feature is full of vitality. We firmly believe that the future 10 will be the dynamic 10 of generate technology growth, and the technology growth industry will profoundly change the social life and economic system of China and even the world. The first clue is 2020-20265438. The energy revolution "this line, there will be a second and a third line.

Yin Hua Li Xiaoxing Foundation:

Lonely troubles are hidden in a decent way.

When the news of Zhou Yingbo's resignation came out earlier, Li Xiaoxing, a Yin Hua fund, forwarded the news in a circle of friends with an online lyric, saying, "Lonely thoughts are covered with dignity, and the memories of the past are slowly stranded", and the people who eat melons said that they could not understand it. However, Li Xiaoxing once again quoted this lyric in the four quarterly reports, which solved the mystery:

"Lonely troubles are hidden in decent places", and the eighth year of portfolio management is about to enter in a blink of an eye. Many small partners who have joined the business together have gradually faded out. From the beginning, I was considered as an unlikely public offering manager, and now I am considered as a public offering manager who looks very capable for a long time. I will continue to work in the future as long as my physical condition allows and my grades can be kept above the expected level.

We believe that the public offering of funds is a tool for the public to share the dividends of social progress. The ultimate standard of public offering managers should be how much money the holders earn in their career, which is also the goal we have been challenging.

In the future, we will continue to increase the concentration and strive to spend more than 95% of our time on investment and research and improving performance, which is also responsible and fair to all holders. Thank you for your support along the way. Although our performance fluctuates from time to time, it has always been with us. Your expectation and criticism are the driving force for our progress. Here, I wish our holders and readers of this newspaper an open mind and happiness in the new year. "There are thousands of trees and plum blossoms all over the sky, and 90,000 Li Fengpeng lifts!"