{1} global creditors will be "pitted"
The British "Independent" said that almost every bank, Ministry of Finance and pension fund in the world bought US Treasury bonds. Even a slight downgrade will affect everyone on the planet. This means that Americans' ability to buy Korean TV sets, German cars, China toys, scotch whisky and other products has declined. The role of the United States as the "consumer of last resort" will gradually stop, which in turn means that the growth of other countries will slow down.
For the international market, US Treasury bonds were once regarded as the last haven in the financial turmoil by investors, but now their credit rating is lower than that of Britain, Germany, France and Canada. On the 5th, the yield of US 10-year treasury bonds fell by 2.5%, the lowest since June 20 10. Once the US debt loses its international status and the dollar depreciates sharply, China, Russian and other countries that hold a large amount of US debt will suffer heavy losses.
{2} The impact on the global stock market triggered financial turmoil.
Experts believe that S&P's downgrade of the US sovereign rating may increase the financing cost of the United States and the yield of US bonds, which will have a negative impact on the bond market and may also hit the US economy hard. At present, about 40% of American debt is used as security collateral for various financial market transactions. The downgrade means that the qualification of US Treasury bonds as financial collateral is doubted and weakened, which may further lead to violent fluctuations in related markets.
This week, the global stock market is full of sorrow, and the market's concerns about the global economic weakness have led to the rapid withdrawal of funds. This downgrade will undoubtedly hit market confidence again, and US stocks are likely to open lower on Monday, which may further impact global stock markets. Investors' pessimistic expectations of the US debt situation will be further strengthened.
{3} Every American is forced to raise taxes.
The most direct impact of the credit rating decline on the United States is that the interest rate will increase when the US government, enterprises and ordinary consumers borrow money. US President Barack Obama once explained to the public that the downgrade means that the interest rates of various financial products such as mortgage loans and credit cards in the United States have increased, which means that every American is forced to increase taxes.
The actual subject of US Treasury bonds is domestic institutional investors, including many pension funds. According to the standard, the rating is downgraded, and institutional investors must sell government bonds, which is very risky for them.
If the depreciation of the US dollar accelerates, China will suffer heavy losses.
Experts say: China should defend its due interests as the largest creditor in the United States.
Some experts believe that lowering the AAA sovereign credit rating of the United States may accelerate the depreciation of the US dollar.
The share of US dollar in global reserves is 60.7%, and China is the largest overseas holder of US Treasury bonds, holding 1. 1.6 trillion as of May this year. Earlier, Yi Ming, director of the Asia Department of the Council on Foreign Relations, an important American think tank, pointed out that China and China continued to buy US debt because of the lack of safer investment options, and only the US debt market could accommodate's huge investment.
Regarding the impact of S&P's downgrade of the US rating on China, Roubini pointed out that China has two choices: let the RMB appreciate sharply or continue to buy US Treasury bonds. China will continue to buy American bonds if a sharp appreciation of the renminbi will hurt exports. Experts believe that this kind of loss is inevitable no matter whether China insists on American debt in the future.
Zuo, chief economist of Galaxy Securities, believes that the downgrade has greatly reduced the actual purchasing power of China's foreign exchange. As the largest holder of American debt, China can ask the United States to issue bonds. To this end, she suggested that China, as the largest bondholder, should, like Singapore, require the United States to issue bonds that increase with inflation, so as to lock in the risks of RMB appreciation and USD depreciation. At the same time, the United States is required to stimulate the growth of the real economy and cut spending. When it doesn't have enough funds to develop the real economy, it should open its doors and allow foreign direct investment instead of buying government bonds. In addition, China should also look for new support points for currency peg and change the situation of single peg to the US dollar.
Sun, a professor at Fudan University, believes that this crisis highlights the importance of establishing an investment platform that competes with the American market. China should unite the world forces with the same interests, defend China's due interests as the largest creditor of the United States, issue a "China voice" and reform the international monetary system dominated by the US dollar.
Yuan Peng, a researcher at China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said that the problems in the United States are actually not economic problems, but political problems, social problems and the direction of national development. American society is in a period of transition, and the conflicts of interests among various social groups are intensifying. The rich who pay taxes are unhappy, and the poor do not work. The cohesion of the whole country is declining. For China, the downgrade of the United States will make the diversification of China's foreign exchange reserves more urgent and must be implemented as a strategic task.
China's policy tightening should be more cautious.
The weather is very hot and the economy in the west is very cold. It's hard to surprise in the second half of the year, but it's still quite scary. China's policy tightening should be more cautious, seeing more and doing less.
Fan Jianping, Director of Economic Forecasting Department of National Information Center.
China suffered the most.
The US debt crisis has shaken the reserve position of the US dollar, and China has been hit hardest. The deterioration of the US debt situation has made it a foregone conclusion that the value of the US dollar will be shaken. Is it necessary for China to keep its exchange rate low and subsidize global consumption at the expense of environment and resources?
Jiang Saichun, Chief Analyst of Desheng Fund Research Center
Gold and silver are more sought after.
At present, the status of American debt, one of the two major safe havens in the world, has been shaken, and gold and silver are more sought after.