1. From a macro point of view, the higher yield of US bonds means that the economic situation is improving. Everyone has money, and the return on investing in other assets is also good. Therefore, selling American debt lowers the price and catalyzes the yield of American debt to rise. The lower yield of American bonds means that the economic situation is grim, there are no good assets to allocate, and everyone has gone to buy risk-free government bonds. Usually 1.5% is regarded as an important barrier.

2. From the perspective of monetary policy, the Fed's interest rate hike will affect the yield of US 10-year treasury bonds, and the Fed's interest rate cut will lead to a decline in the yield of US bonds. The yield of US bonds refers to the interest rate obtained by holding bonds to the agreed term, including the appreciation of coupon rate and bonds themselves, which is equivalent to the capital cost of US dollars.

1. U.S. debt: that is, U.S. treasury bonds, which refer to the national bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury on behalf of the federal government.

2. Classification of American debt: According to different issuance methods, American debt can be divided into voucher bonds, physical bonds (also known as bearer bonds or treasury bonds) and book-entry bonds; According to the maturity of bonds, US Treasury bonds can be roughly divided into three categories: short-term treasury bonds (T-Bills), medium-term treasury bonds (T-Notes) and long-term treasury bonds (T-bonds). In addition to local investors, countries around the world can also buy US Treasury bonds. In previous years, the average issuance of US Treasury bonds was $500 billion to $600 billion per year.

3. What will be the impact of the change in the yield of US bonds?

The yield of American bonds is the basis of global asset pricing, which has a wide range of influence.

(1) foreign exchange market: If the rise in the yield of government bonds indicates an increase in inflation, the central bank's monetary policy will be tightened if inflation rises too fast, thus pushing the exchange rate trend. The bond yield of one country will have an impact on the currency trend of another country. Countries with higher interest rates will attract more funds to buy their bonds and their currencies will strengthen.

(2) Stock market: Rising yield, inflation and tightening of monetary policy will lead to rising prices of various raw materials, rising costs, falling profits, rising company valuation and falling stock prices.

(3) Asset pricing: As the yield of national debt rises, the mortgage interest rate of mortgage will also rise. Student or car loans will be higher. Although the price of gold, national debt and gold are all safe-haven assets, they are contrary to the trend of the stock market and are not positively related. The rise in US bond yields will depress the price of gold.

4. US bond yields: The future will be an important challenge.

(1) Looking ahead, the real threat to US bond yields may be in the middle of the year. The South Korean side of harvest fund's Asset Allocation Research Department said, "The transmission mechanism of the yield of US bonds may be that the interest rate of US bonds has risen sharply-the cost of capital/dollar has risen-the representative bubble of a certain region/asset has been punctured-cross-border capital has returned to the US dollar-systemic liquidity has tightened-global assets have been boosted."

(2) The transmission mechanism of US bond interest rate to A-shares is through stocks with similar pricing mechanism and valuation system-Hong Kong stocks, leading Internet companies and foreign investors who hold more long-term shares. There is not necessarily a high positive correlation between China's national debt and US debt, but considering the asset bubble, exchange rate stability, future policy space and other factors, the central bank's monetary policy will try to maintain a certain synergy with the US debt interest rate.