By analyzing the transaction cases of 10 single office building customers, it is not difficult to find that large state-owned enterprises account for the vast majority of active buyers of the whole office building in Beijing market; In addition, there are a few private enterprises; The emerging power is an overseas investment institution, which only started to enter the Beijing office market in the past two years.
Most of the whole office buildings purchased by state-owned enterprises are for their own use, focusing on factors such as prominent status, convenient access to political and economic resources, and the distance of employees' residence.
Overseas investment focuses on the rate of return, the assets and liabilities of developers, the planning of the project itself, specific parameters and even the marketing strategies of other parts of the project. They often pay great attention to economic data and market data (in fact, many data have limited effect), and even care about land planning in this area, such as the supply, stock and vacancy rate around them.
The overall office building demand of large state-owned enterprises is strong.
When reporters posed for interviews and went deep into large state-owned enterprises to understand why they bought the whole office building, they encountered many difficulties. Therefore, the reporter had to calm down and think carefully about the demand of large state-owned enterprises for office buildings. As a result, many people in the industry have poured into the pen about the needs of large state-owned enterprises.
First, macroeconomic improvement. The enhanced profitability of state-owned enterprises has laid the foundation for the possibility of whole rent and whole sale. For example, the main language city is still negotiating three buildings, each with an area of 33,000 to 35,000 square meters and each with a value of about 600 million. It can be speculated that the economic strength of these state-owned enterprises with purchasing intentions should not be underestimated.
Second, the change of financial evaluation method. The measurement of the value of fixed assets is no longer depreciation but re-evaluation. The depreciation rate no longer works, and the potential appreciation space of real estate is fully tapped. Although fixed assets will age, with the increase of land price or the continuous strengthening of surface image, their value will continue to increase. -the adjustment of this financial estimation method has promoted the demand of state-owned enterprises to buy office buildings in the whole building.
Third, the concept of capital management of state-owned enterprises is updated. After the institutional reform of state-owned enterprises, in the process of transition to marketization, the importance of capital operation is gradually realized: the company's assets should be diversified, and products, cash reserves, securities and real estate must be distributed in a certain proportion to achieve the best enterprise benefits. Therefore, holding properties has been included in the enterprise development strategy, and some enterprises have also purchased properties far exceeding their own needs (for example, Sinosteel International purchased AC Block of Zhongguancun Financial Center, covering an area of less than one third). This kind of investment can really benefit enterprises, for example, it can be mortgaged to banks for financing, and it can obtain stable rental income.
Fourth, the change of leadership concept of state-owned enterprises. From the private point of view of decision makers, buying the whole office building is a weight of political achievements; Second, it can improve the office environment and win the support of subordinates; Third, the idle funds injected into real estate can withstand the examination aboveboard and reduce the chance of being sneaked into the warehouse; Fourth, it can leave intangible assets for successors and win a good reputation. So why not?
International professional investment institutions: pay attention to the China market.
Overseas investors generally include funds, investment banks and industries. Investment can be real estate development or purchase of finished property. Generally speaking, participating in real estate development requires high investment and high risk; Although the investment of the latter is larger than the development, the risk is relatively small because of the pursuit of stable rental returns.
Overseas funds can invest in office buildings, hotels, warehousing and logistics. The specific investment is based on the internal development strategy of the enterprise. However, in Beijing at present, it is more favorable to invest in the whole office building than in hotels, and it is also favored by foreign businessmen. This is because the risk of office buildings is relatively small and the rate of return is relatively fixed. Sars has had a great impact on the hotel industry, and office buildings will not be affected by this factor. The hotel has the operating rules of peak season and low season, and the office building is not affected by the season.
Looking back on the history of foreign capital entering the real estate market in China, we find that overseas enterprises and domestic enterprises have jointly developed real estate for a long time. However, it was not until last year that CapitaLand purchased the World Trade Center in Central and Merrill Lynch invested in Yintai Center that direct investment in finished properties was started. In the first quarter of this year, the whole office building sales market of overseas funds was even stronger: Asia International Financial Investment Co., Ltd. pocketed Huapu Center with US$ 270 million, and Japan replus bought two office buildings of Huamao * * *123,800 square meters without anyone knowing. I can't help asking: how many foreign investors are staring at the Beijing office market and preparing to land?
Cao Nianguo, director of dtz Investment Department, said, "All investors should weigh the return on investment and risk. Eastern Europe has a high rate of return, but the political situation is unstable; The United States is politically and economically stable, but the return on investment is low. At present, China is in a period of rapid growth, with stable domestic political situation and high return on investment. How many countries in the world can be like this? As far as I know, there are almost thirty or forty internationally renowned investors who have the intention to invest in China. "
Overseas legion: medium and long-term investment concern
Because of the rapid development of China, investors all over the world will not ignore the investment opportunities in China. However, to them, China may be a thorny rose, fragrant and prickly. They pay close attention to investment opportunities in China, but they are always alert to possible investment risks.
Cao Nianguo, Director of Investment Department of dtz, said: "The China government will welcome foreign investors to invest because this is a global economy. No one will close the door to the outside world, but to a large extent, it is impossible for national leaders to adopt a completely liberalized policy, and they will certainly set some thresholds to regulate foreign investment. There may be different methods such as taxation and foreign exchange entry and exit to set some thresholds. "
Cao Nianguo also said: "The unclear policy of the China government may lead overseas legions to wonder: Is the policy of the China government coherent enough? For example, how long can the "three reductions and two exemptions" policy last? Therefore, when foreign capital officially lands, it is most concerned about laws and regulations with strong continuity such as taxation, and policy risks will also be considered. Under such circumstances, overseas legions will have investment concerns for some time. "
In addition, the reporter also heard a small rumor in the industry that the state will announce the detailed regulations on foreign real estate investment management at the end of July. Therefore, most overseas capital is still on the sidelines.
Summary:
First, the overall situation that domestic enterprises are the main buyers will not change in the short term, and this part of demand is still on the rise.
Second, the strong demand for overseas investment is still in a state of repression, and the prospect is still unclear. Once the policy is liberalized, there will be a "blowout" growth.
When large Chinese-funded enterprises and overseas funds choose properties, they are basically properties with good location, high grade and great appreciation potential. The high-quality office building in the core area has become the focus of the whole transaction because of its good image display effect and investment potential.
Regional choice of overseas funds
The targets of overseas funds are mainly concentrated in CBD, Financial Street and Yansha Guomen Business Circle.
The return on investment of projects in these areas is high, and the property conforms to the characteristics of high-end and unified ownership. In 2005, the rents of CBD and Financial Street increased steadily. Guo Mao and Kerry are close to full rent, with the rental price above $40/m2 and the transaction price above $35/m2, reaching the highest point in recent years. The rents in the surrounding areas of CBD have also started to rise steadily, with a yield of over 90%. The rental transaction price of Financial Street has exceeded $20 per square meter per month, and the rental rate has greatly increased, and some projects are close to full rent level. Japanese Replus invested in China trade, Merrill Lynch signed a contract with China Red Street, and so on. These cases show that the focus of overseas investment this year is still these three regions.
On the contrary, Zhongguancun, one of the three traditional business districts, seems to be not interested in overseas funds.
So far, no real foreign investors have bought all the properties in zhongguancun west. Although Deutsche Bank is ready to settle in, it is only established and its use area is very small. In the past two years, the concentration of office buildings in zhongguancun west has led to a slow rise in rental prices, because the market is still in the digestive period; Coupled with the uneven quality of the project and the overall sales area not exceeding 20,000 square meters, overseas funds are not optimistic about Zhongguancun. It can be predicted that even after the existing stock is completely digested, it is still difficult to reverse the situation that Zhongguancun office buildings are left out by foreign capital.
Policy anxiety of international investment institutions
In CBD and financial street areas, there will be no shortage of office buildings in the future.
In order to discuss it more clearly, it is necessary to further subdivide the "whole floor sale"-make a slight difference between the whole floor sale and the whole building sale-although there is no absolute boundary between the two.
The whole building purchase mentioned below refers to the situation that you can acquire the naming right of the building by buying the whole building or buying most of the buildings.
In 2006, "wholesale sales" was in full swing.
In 2005, there were only a few cases of the overall sale of office buildings. But the number is already considerable. According to the data we have, the new supply in Beijing in 2005 was more than 2 million square meters, and the transaction volume was about 6.5438+0.3 million square meters. But the whole building or the whole floor sold for 800 thousand square meters.
In 2006, the momentum of the whole sale was threatened at the beginning of the year, because the media in the industry had made too many exaggerations, and reporters stopped talking about them one by one. However, there are few reports in the industry, but what readers have to know is that almost all office developers are posing as wholesale sales. Although the situation in different areas is different, in most areas, the wholesale sales of office buildings have left the bulk sales far behind.
Attached drawing: 1996-2006 list of some bulk office transactions (red part of new cases in 2006)