Secondly, our demographic structure will undergo major changes. In the next 10 year, we will welcome at least 300-400 million elderly people, and they will also reach retirement age. On the one hand, the society is facing great pressure to provide for the aged, and at the same time, our medical system is also facing great pressure.
Young families are under great economic pressure, but they also have support pressure. These children are basically only children. They will face 2-4 old people and 1-3 children. Plus husband and wife, there are at least five people in this family. Once someone loses their job, it will really be a chicken flying a dog jumping.
Secondly, reform the old-age insurance system. At present, more than 90% of the population in China have endowment insurance. However, if the financial subsidy income is excluded, the fund income has been lower than the expenditure level since 13. After the Ministry of Finance included the income and expenditure of the basic old-age insurance fund in the final accounts of 18, the gap increased more obviously.
Therefore, in April this year, the state officially issued the Opinions on Promoting the Development of Individual Pensions. According to the news at the beginning of this month, Chengdu has become the leading city of individual pension in Sichuan Province. Referring to the experience of Japan, Germany, the United States and other countries, the construction of personal pension is particularly important for low-income groups and flexible employment groups.
Even if individual pension is implemented, it may take some time to relieve the pressure of pension. To relieve the pressure, the replacement rate of individual pension should reach at least 10%.
There is also delayed retirement, and Japan is a typical example. Because of the rapid aging of the population, Japan began to delay retirement in 2000. First, it was extended to 60 years old in 2000, then to 62 years old in 2006 and 63 years old in 2007. Later, I found that I couldn't keep going. 20 13 was extended to 64 years old and 20 13 was extended to 65 years old.
According to the Annual Report on Social Insurance Development in China 20 16 compiled by Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security Social Security Management Center, in 20 16, the dependency ratio of enterprise pension insurance in China decreased from 20 1 year to 3. 16 to 2.80. According to the current aging rate, if gradual delayed retirement is not implemented, the dependency ratio of old-age insurance will drop from 2.65: 1 in 20 19 to 1 in 2050. The dependency ratio of old-age insurance has dropped to about 1, which means that it is impossible for almost one young man to support an old man.
Finally, it is to explore youth re-employment. Take Japan whose population structure is similar to ours as an example. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan in 20 19, the employment rate of the elderly in Japan is 24.3%, and the employment rate of the elderly aged 65 to 70 is 46%. This figure cannot be said to be low.
Like any reform, the reform of pension system is not a one-man show:
Whether the capital market can provide a strong backing for maintaining and increasing the value of pension funds, how the tide of urban-rural labor transfer can find a way for the rural population to provide for the aged, how national education can bring people into this reform, and how to minimize the transformation cost are all unavoidable problems in the reform of China's pension system.