This is just an experiment. There is no verdict yet.
First, I'm still crying. ...
Family finance 20 19 1 1 put on record to arrest people at the end of the year. I remember it very clearly.
Because that would be when I quit P2P investment.
At that time, I also wrote an article. Later, the official number was blocked and the article could not be found. I'm sorry.
It took about two years from filing a case to arresting people to opening a court session, and it is estimated that it will take another 1-2 years to get a refund.
Later, occasionally readers asked me questions about family finance/happy families.
Because I didn't pay much attention to it after I caught it, I don't know what happened and I can't reply.
But before filing a case to arrest people, I was still very concerned about family finances.
Why do you care about it? Because its family involves many media peers, all of whom are big names in Hangzhou.
Well, it's all in the past.
I just seem to be crying now.
Second, tell the inside story secretly. ...
At the peak of P2P industry, many media peers are pushing it.
From self-media to traditional media, there are also major video websites and so on.
Behind the P2P accident, the tree is basically gone.
Some of them just said a few words at first, and then ... no more.
In my opinion, it's really not very kind.
To tell the truth, the P2P industry in those days enriched a lot of financial media, because the promotion commission of P2P was super high (compared with now).
You should have noticed that a lot of finance and economics have stopped from media in the past two years.
To be honest, it is precisely because the P2P industry is dead. Without this profit, a lot of finance and economics could not be maintained from the media and slowly stopped.
Especially the kind operated by the company, 10 team, the kind that goes to work every day.
In fact, you can observe for yourself that those high-quality day classes are basically corporatized in operation.
Without P2P, many people can't make money, and bosses are slowly reluctant to continue to operate, and they have switched to e-commerce, short videos and so on.
Alas, many bosses are really talented, rich and talkative.
The real rich are basically the big bosses who start companies.
Compared with those bosses, individual bloggers like me are really bad, which is absolutely true.
But those who survive are more personalized bloggers.
Yes, just like me, I don't have any expenses anyway. As long as people are alive, I can code words.
One person is full, and the whole family is not hungry. This is the secret of survival, and there is nothing to be proud of.
Third, share some ideas. ...
Reflecting on my experience in recent years, as well as my present situation and future in the financial field, there are still some thoughts:
0 1 have less courage.
Reject temptation, be less courageous and live longer.
Reflecting on recent years, many media people have suffered a fiasco and even embarked on the criminal road, mostly because of cross-border.
From media industry to financial industry. Instead, I jumped from the financial industry to the media industry.
If they had stayed in the media industry, they might be better off now.
Not only the media industry, but all walks of life want to get involved when mutual gold is at its peak.
The most typical is the Internet company.
Even now, most internet companies are involved in mutual funds.
Timid, they sell all kinds of financial products for financial institutions; The bold will go directly to finance, and some even focus on financial income.
The story of financial wealth is so fascinating.
In fact, the vast majority of financial wealth is to draw chestnuts from the fire.
Being too close to money, having a bad idea, may do some bad things or violate the rules.
Then there was a narrow escape. If you catch it, go in.
I don't know what I didn't hear clearly. ...
Anyway, there is no P2P now, and there are many stories of getting rich.
In fact, the more formal the real finance is, the thinner the profit margin is. Where are so many rich stories?
You see that the bank has made a lot of money, but you don't see the scale of assets it manages, trillions, hundreds of trillions.
In this industry, whether doing business or investing, risks and benefits are absolutely proportional in the long run.
In the long run, there is no low-risk and high-yield situation in both employment and investment.
Don't be greedy, enough is enough. The higher you go, the greater the risk, and the money you earn may not be spent.
Be cautious about "innovation"
The class solidification of this industry is hard to break.
This industry is really like this, and there is supervision on innovation.
I compare P2P to the "Great Leap Forward" in the mutual gold industry, which may be the boldest innovation in the financial industry in the past 20 years.
But as a result of this innovation, we have a deeper understanding that some economic laws are far stronger than we thought.
The progress of internet technology has not broken the inherent economic/financial laws, and finance is still that finance.
I don't know if other technologies will really change finance in the future, but the internet can't do it yet.
Insurance, banking and securities will always be the pillars of this industry, and the financial system they constitute is almost impossible to be shaken.
Of course, they are also transforming, but they can never be replaced.
Ordinary people want to buy low-risk financial management. At present, it will only appear in these three institutions.
(Low risk does not mean capital preservation, and the three major financial institutions are breaking rigid redemption through net worth. )
Ordinary people want to participate in high-risk investment, but also left a channel, that is, Public Offering of Fund with mature supervision. I have always thought that stocks are not suitable for ordinary people.
The rest, help yourself.
Without mature supervision, it has already indicated its attitude.
03 on the risk of investment
To be honest, the threshold for making money by investing is increasing.
The "threshold" I am talking about is not the amount of funds, but the threshold of learning and cognition.
In the future, there will be fewer opportunities to make money by luck, and in the end, they will all make money by strength, especially in high-risk and high-yield fields.
I often remind my friends around me:
Investment can make money or lose money. If you don't know anything, why do you make money instead of losing money?
Seriously, in the future investment and financial management, some people's goal should not be to make money, but to resist (part of) inflation.
If you really don't know anything and have no energy to study any more, I suggest these friends buy low-risk and low-income financial management.
Although you can't make a lot of money, at least you have a high probability to keep the principal and fight (part of) inflation.
Under the current economic situation, the highest income guaranteed financial management is probably within 4.8%. (For now, in a few years, it should be reduced; In addition, it does not mean that less than 4.8% means capital preservation and financial management)
Further up, you will take risks.
I'm not against taking risks, but I need to know exactly how many risks I can take and what kind of risks I can take.
There are two kinds of risks, one is the storm risk without principal, the other is the fluctuation risk of floating profit and loss.
If you are willing to take risks, I suggest that you would rather endure the risk of fluctuation than accept the risk of thunderstorm.
Make up for it
I have been discussing the hot property tax these days, so I will briefly talk about it.
From the perspective of tax payment.
In fact, in my opinion, this is the "rich tax".
Only friends who just need the 1.2 suite need not worry too much about the tax.
Even if you want to pay, you don't have to pay much.
To put it bluntly, the biggest influence of this thing is friends with multiple houses.
From the perspective of housing prices, what is the impact?
It still has a certain impact, that is, it accelerates the "28 effect" of housing prices.
In the context of property tax, the investment value of good houses is more prominent, and houses with no investment value will be sold.
The trend of house prices since last year is the future trend of house prices.
This is not a pure all up or all down.
On the contrary, good houses with investment value continue to rise, while houses without investment value remain stable and prices fall.
This is the February 28th effect.
The strong will always be strong and the weak will always be weak. Property tax will accelerate this trend.
I mentioned above that "the threshold for making money by investment is increasing", including real estate investment.
The era when you can make money by buying a house with your eyes closed is completely over.
Only a few houses will continue to rise in the future, which is basically settled.