On the evening of July 1 1, lithium mining giant Ganfeng Lithium Industry announced that in order to further strengthen the layout of upstream lithium resources, improve the self-sufficiency rate of the company's resources and enhance the company's core competitiveness, it was agreed that a wholly-owned subsidiary Ganfeng International Co., Ltd. or a wholly-owned subsidiary would acquire no more than 100% of the shares of LitheaInc, and the total consideration for this acquisition would not exceed 962 million US dollars.
It is worth noting that on the same day, driven by the collapse of Tianqi lithium industry, the share price of the entire lithium mine sector fell sharply. The downfall of Tianqi Lithium Industry originated from a sentence posted by Ying Ying, the wife of Xu Xiang, a well-known private equity tycoon, on her official WeChat account on the evening of July 10: "In 002466, Davis of Tianqi Lithium Industry had reached the peak and the price was overestimated."
In this regard, some institutions said that the bearish remarks were unfounded and continued to be optimistic about the lithium resource sector, and the fundamentals continued to improve. In addition, many public investors believe that the performance of outstanding enterprises in the upstream resources sector is expected to continue to grow, considering the tight supply-demand relationship and the slow release of production capacity.
Ganfeng lithium re-launched: 6.4 billion overseas to buy ore.
On the evening of June 1 1, Ganfeng Lithium announced that the board of directors agreed that Ganfeng International, a wholly-owned subsidiary, or its wholly-owned subsidiary, would acquire no more than 100% of the shares of Lishiya, and the total consideration for this acquisition would not exceed 962 million US dollars (about RMB 6.458 billion). The total consideration of this acquisition includes the value of all shares of Lithea and the related debts that the company will bear.
It is reported that Lithea is mainly engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of lithium mining rights, and its main asset PPG project is the lithium salt lake project in Salta province of Argentina, including two lithium salt lake assets, Pozuelos and PastosGrandes. However, Lithea did not generate sales revenue because it did not actually operate. By April 30, 2022, the company's net profit was-3.234 million USD, net assets were-654.38+065.438+0.946 million USD, and total assets were 49.52 million USD. The company claims that the main reasons for its losses are management expenses and exploration expenses. Its negative net assets are mainly due to the existence of loans with its ultimate holding company PluspetrolResourceCorpBV, its affiliated companies and third parties.
The announcement also said that the main product of the mine is lithium carbonate produced by lithium-containing salt lake brine, which is mainly used as raw material for the production of cathode materials for lithium batteries. The first phase of PPG project is planned to produce 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually, which can be expanded to 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually according to the natural resources conditions where the project is located.
Ganfeng Lithium Industry said that this transaction will help the company to further strengthen the layout of upstream lithium resources, improve the company's resource self-sufficiency rate and enhance its core competitiveness, which is in line with the company's upstream and downstream integration and new energy automobile industry development strategy.
It is worth noting that since the beginning of this year, the pace of expansion of Ganfeng lithium industry has been accelerating. On May 25th, Ganfeng Lithium announced through Guan Wei that the company's 50,000-ton lithium battery new energy material project officially started on May 23rd. It is planned to invest 2 billion yuan to extract lithium from spodumene, forming an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of LCE lithium-ion new energy materials. On May 30, Argentina time, Ganfeng Lithium Industry announced at the groundbreaking ceremony of its Mariana Salt Lake project that it would invest about 600 million US dollars to build a production base with an annual output of 20,000 tons of lithium chloride.
It is reported that as of 2002165438+February, the company's battery-grade lithium carbonate production capacity is 43,000 tons/year, and the battery-grade lithium hydroxide production capacity is 8 1000 tons/year. On the whole, considering the rapid growth of demand for lithium products, Ganfeng Lithium Industry is accelerating the capacity expansion of lithium compounds and lithium resources projects, and plans to form the supply capacity of lithium products with an annual output of 300,000 tons of LCE in 2025, which will include the ability to extract lithium from ore, brine and clay. The company is optimistic about the long-term development of the world lithium market. In the future, it will form a lithium product supply capacity of not less than 600,000 tons of LCE and a more competitive lithium resource project reserve.
On July 1 1 day, Ganfeng Lithium plunged 6.72% to close at1kloc-0/.19 yuan/share, with the latest total market value of 190 billion yuan.
Lithium mining stocks plummeted collectively.
Ganfeng lithium industry fell sharply or was affected by the whole board crash. In July 1 1, driven by the collapse of Tianqi lithium industry, lithium mining stocks fell almost across the board. At the close, Tianqi Lithium rebounded slightly from the daily limit, closing down 9. 16%, Shengxin Lithium and Rongjie shares fell more than 8%, Yahua Group fell more than 7%, and Yongxing Materials, China Mining Resources, Ganfeng Lithium and Tianhua Chaojing fell more than 6%.
The downfall of Tianqi Lithium Industry originated from a sentence posted by Ying Ying, the wife of Xu Xiang, a well-known private equity tycoon, on her official WeChat account on the evening of July 10: "In 002466, Davis of Tianqi Lithium Industry had reached the peak and the price was overestimated."
According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Tianqi Lithium Industry responded to the above incident by saying: "According to Ying Ying's public response last night, she doesn't have a stock account and doesn't buy or sell stocks, and understands that she doesn't own shares in Tianqi Lithium Industry. At the same time, it also reminds investors to treat market comments rationally and pay attention to investment risks. The company is currently operating normally. "
On the evening of July 1 1, Ying Ying responded to CBN and said that he did not expect Tianqi lithium industry to decline. She believes that the price of Tianqi lithium industry is overestimated, "just reminding fans of the risks." Ying Ying has repeatedly stressed that her comments on the market have nothing to do with Xu Xiang. Xu Xiang has been out of touch with Xu Xiang since he got out of prison. "His mobile phone is turned off." .
In this regard, Huaxi Securities said: "Recently, some people commented that Tianqi Lithium Industry was overvalued. In our opinion, it is completely false. There is no substantial evidence that Tianqi Lithium Industry is overvalued and the company's fundamentals are in a stage of continuous improvement. "
Huaxi Securities believes that Tianqi Lithium successfully issued Hong Kong stocks, successfully settled the option, and further optimized the debt problem. The company can go into battle lightly and accelerate the expansion of lithium salt production capacity. In terms of resources, the company has the best Tellison lithium concentrate resource endowment in the world. In June, 2022, Tellison Tailings Factory was put into operation, with an annual production capacity of 280,000 tons. At present, the output of lithium concentrate is further released in the stage of capacity climbing. At the same time, the company shares in the world's best salt lake resources and gets rich dividends from SQM. Sichuan Zola spodumene mine will also resume construction. In the second half of the year, as the impact of the epidemic subsided, the new energy industry chain was willing to make up for the production losses caused by the epidemic in March-May. The acceleration of downstream production scheduling will increase lithium salt consumption and drive lithium salt prices to rebound. It is not excluded that the price of lithium salt will hit a new high in the stocking season of 202204/2023Q 1 peak season.
Is the investment logic of lithium mine still there?
Since the market picked up on April 27, new energy has become a well-deserved rebound in depth, especially in the upper reaches of new energy represented by lithium mines. Although the lithium index (884785. WI) fell by 5.57% in the latest trading day, but it has still increased by more than 60% since April 27th, while the share price of Tianqi Lithium has increased by 126 since April 27th.
At present, the market is most concerned about whether lithium mining stocks really "Davis double-click has reached its peak"
"There was some bad news in the market over the weekend. Superimposed lithium mine had a large increase in the early stage, and related stocks recently hit a record high, which was greatly affected by market sentiment. However, as far as the current supply pattern is concerned, the downstream demand side is still growing at a high speed, and the expansion of the supply side takes time, and the upstream may maintain a high degree of prosperity during the year. " A fund manager in South China told China, a brokerage firm.
CITIC Securities also said that the sharp adjustment of related stocks is more emotional than fundamental, and it is above the wind. The lithium plate market is also prone to large fluctuations with changes in market sentiment, such as high-level withdrawal or concerns about liquidity tightening.
In addition, recently, Shi Cheng, the fund manager of SDIC UBS New Energy A, also said in an exclusive interview with brokerage China that the upstream of the new energy industry has entered a state of short supply: the first upstream has the longest expansion cycle, and if there is a shortage in the industrial chain, it will inevitably appear upstream; The second upstream expansion is the most difficult. In terms of duration, there is basically no new capacity of lithium from last year to now, and there are some new capacity in the second half of this year. However, since the price of lithium is not bubbled, capital expenditure will not increase. From this point of view, the high probability of lithium price will go to 2023, so the concentration of new energy profits upstream will be a relatively long state and will not end in the short term.
However, the recent research report of Zhengdong Derivatives Research Institute is cautiously optimistic about lithium salts. According to the report, the resource end is still the bottleneck of supply during the year, the price of ore continues to rise, and the cost support below lithium salt is strong. The price increase depends on the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand, and the negative feedback of the price increase of car companies is lagging behind. It is hard to say that there has been an inflection point in the third quarter; The marginal slowdown in supply growth superimposed the year-end impulse of car companies, and supply and demand improved in the fourth quarter. However, considering the tight balance of global lithium resources during the year, the supply will further increase next year, and the price buffer effect of channel inventory will gradually appear, making it difficult to break through the price. Lithium salt prices may continue to fluctuate in the third quarter, and it is expected to return to the upward channel in the fourth quarter, but the upward trend is expected to be moderate. The domestic spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is about 440,000-500,000 yuan/ton.
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