The market continues to fluctuate, which is another bright day for new energy vehicles.
It can be seen that under the background of RMB appreciation, Harvest Gold, a fund that tracks international gold prices, has indeed outperformed the ETF fund that tracks domestic gold prices by nearly 1% this year.
In short, the short-term fluctuation of gold and its further upward momentum will depend on whether this round of macroeconomic recovery can further raise US inflation expectations. But in the long run, gold can also be standard, and the supporting environment of gold price is still there, which can play the role of hedging currency.
② The price impact of gold ETF fund.
The influence of gold ETF fund on gold price
Taking the weekly fund positions and commercial positions in the gold market published by CFTC as the research object, this paper compares and reveals the influences of fund positions and commercial positions on the gold price through appropriate statistical methods.
COMEX fund position report divides positions into two categories: reported positions and unreported positions. Among them, the declaration of posts is the most important, and the posts of commercial organizations and non-commercial organizations belong to the declaration of posts. Commercial institutions mainly refer to international gold producers and consumers, while non-commercial institutions mainly refer to commodity funds, mainly including hedge funds, pension funds and futures investment management funds. The positions of commercial institutions and non-commercial institutions are further divided into non-commercial bulls and non-commercial shorts, and commercial bulls and commercial shorts. Other smaller hedgers and speculators are classified as "unreported positions".
1. Comparison of non-commercial, commercial and unreported positions
In COMEX fund positions, the strength of commercial institutions occupies a dominant position, and the position ratio remains at around 50%; Fund-based non-commercial institutions have gradually become a decisive market force; The proportion of unreported positions is small and stable, and has remained between 10%-20% since 2000. On the whole, non-reported jobs are declining year by year, and non-commercial and commercial forces are almost completely changing.
2. Comparison of various long positions
COMEX non-commercial long position has been lower than commercial long position from 2000 to May 2006, but since August 2003, non-commercial long position has increased sharply. Non-commercial long positions fluctuated greatly, reaching 256,5438+0,765,438+0,700 lots in February 2008, but falling below the level of 654,380+0,000 lots from April to August 2004. On the other hand, during the same period, the commercial bulls were relatively stable and kept fluctuating at 80,000 hands. Non-reported long positions are relatively few, and generally fluctuate under 50,000 hands in recent 9 years.
3. The change of net position of non-commercial institutions and the trend of gold price
The change of fund positions is very forward-looking and contributes the most to the broader market, so it is often possible to predict the trend of the international gold market from the staged fund positions. A very important index to analyze the change of fund positions is non-commercial net positions, that is, the difference between speculative long positions and short positions, also known as net speculative long positions. Since March 2008, the spot price of international gold has challenged the historical high point and become a beautiful landscape in the international gold market. In the same period, COMEX's non-commercial net position showed a strong linkage with the international spot price trend.
4. Comparison of various short positions
The short positions of commercial institutions are much higher than those of non-commercial institutions, and in most of the time, the change trend of short positions of commercial institutions and non-commercial institutions is opposite, that is, when commercial institutions continue to increase short positions, funds continue to reduce short positions. This shows that there are serious differences between fund forces and commercial institutions in judging the trend of international gold prices.