This year, affected by the economic recession in the United States and the shock in the international financial market, the world economic growth trend has slowed down significantly, various uncertainties have increased, and international competition has become increasingly fierce.

In the context of globalization, these changes will inevitably affect the Chinese economy, exposing our economy to greater external risks and bringing new challenges to our country's macroeconomic control.

So far, how much impact has the subprime mortgage crisis had on us?

What pressure will global inflation put on us?

How should we view the tightening international economic and trade environment?

Starting from this issue, this edition will continuously launch a series of reports on "How Big is the External Impact?" to analyze the actual and potential impact of changes in the external situation on China's current economic development from multiple angles. We also hope that more friends will pay attention to it.

and discussion.

——Editor "Is the world economic boom cycle that has lasted for many years near the end?" This question mark from the famous economist Stephen Roach represents people's concerns about the global economic trend in 2008.

Since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, global financial markets have fluctuated sharply, and the U.S. economy has faced recession, with its impact further deepening.

For the rapidly advancing Chinese economy, how big is the domino effect of the subprime mortgage crisis?

How do we respond to this external risk and challenge?

"Domino" has affected China, and the power of external demand may decline. Mr. Liu, a stockholder in Jinan City, Shandong Province, has been depressed recently. The stock market has been falling continuously in the past six months, and his book has shrunk by 50%.

"For example, the CICC Lingnan I bought last year reached a high of 70 yuan, but now it has fallen to about 30 yuan. There is no bad news in the country. I think it is somewhat related to the panic caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis." Last year in October

At the beginning of the month, China's A-share market, which has always been relatively closed, fluctuated and declined. So far, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by more than 40%.

Although it cannot be entirely attributed to the subprime mortgage crisis, this cold wave is undoubtedly increasing the instability of the capital market, triggering global stock market ups and downs, and seriously affecting investors' psychological expectations.

The subprime mortgage crisis triggered the largest financial market turmoil to date since September 11th. The US dollar depreciated and credit shrank. Some estimate that the crisis will cause the financial sector to lose more than US$800 billion.

Many financial institutions around the world have been hit to varying degrees, and some Chinese banks have not been spared. According to estimates from Bear Stearns in the United States, six Chinese banks suffered a total loss of approximately 4.93 billion yuan in the recent subprime mortgage crisis.

As the subprime mortgage problem is further exposed and the world economy slows down, such losses may increase, directly affecting a series of overseas investment income of my country's "going global" enterprises, including financial institutions.

It is worth noting that in the shock wave of the crisis, the slowdown of the U.S. economy, which is the engine of the world economy, will induce an overall slowdown in global economic and trade, which means that China's foreign demand momentum may decline in the future.

The person in charge of Chinatex International Garment Co., Ltd. said: "The biggest problem for enterprise production now has become a lack of orders." Affected by the crisis, the U.S. housing market has been depressed, unemployment has increased, consumer confidence has been frustrated, and purchasing power has declined. The world's largest importing country is currently experiencing an increase in imports.

Weakness.

Our country's economy is highly export-oriented, and the United States is our important trading partner. Exports to the United States are obviously hindered.

Shanghai Xinlian Textile Co., Ltd. has seen a 20% decrease in orders from U.S. customers this year; Zhejiang Carson Group estimates that the crisis will cause its annual exports to drop by $20 million.

Exports to the United States from major exporting provinces such as Guangdong and Jiangsu have fallen sharply.

According to statistics, China's exports to the United States only increased by 5.4% in the first quarter, and even fell by 5.3 percentage points in February; exports to Europe and Japan also declined significantly.

Experts point out that if the power of external demand declines too quickly, it will affect the stability of the domestic economy.

The subprime mortgage crisis has put pressure on my country's macroeconomic control.

Since September last year, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates six times in a row. Its benchmark interest rate has dropped from 5.25% at the beginning of the crisis to 2.25%, and there is still a lot of room for reduction. The inversion of interest rates between China and the United States has not only accelerated the depreciation of the US dollar, but also increased the value of the RMB.

Appreciation pressure will also cause global hot money to continue flowing into China.

Fan Gang, a member of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, believes that a large amount of hot money will increase investment in emerging markets such as China, and more external funds will aggravate excess liquidity, making it easier to fuel the risk of excessive investment growth.

Professor Ding Zhijie from the School of Finance at the University of International Business and Economics is worried that this will cause my country's tight monetary policy to face a dilemma.

The impact is still relatively limited, and the national economy is expected to grow steadily. The impact of the subprime mortgage crisis is still spreading, and it is difficult to accurately predict its trend.

It is certain that China's economy cannot be "alone" and it must be clearly understood and highly vigilant. However, many experts also point out that there is no need to be too pessimistic.

Justin Yifu Lin, chief economist of the World Bank, believes that when the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis will bottom out depends on whether the United States' rescue measures are in place, but he believes that there will not be a situation similar to the Great Depression in 1929.

Since there are only a small number of investors investing in subprime mortgages in the Chinese market, the impact on the Chinese economy is expected to be minor.

The person in charge of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China said that ICBC's existing subordinated bonds do have floating losses based on market value valuation, but the amount of floating losses is not large and ICBC is fully capable of bearing it.

Experts analyze that our country is more insulated from the international financial system than most emerging economies, so it will not suffer too much from the external economic recession.

Zhao Xijun, a professor at the School of Finance at Renmin University of China, also pointed out that the subprime mortgage crisis is an important external factor affecting the Chinese stock market, but it is still the internal factor of the fundamentals of the national economy that determines the direction of the stock market.

my country's GDP is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 10% this year. The Olympic economy and rising residents' income will also further boost domestic demand growth and provide a buffer against external risks.