It is generally believed that if all retail investors are short-selling, A-shares will be as bullish as US stocks. There is a problem here. What is a retail investor? This concept is not good. Are all retail investors with less than 1 million funds or retail investors with less than 1 billion funds? There is also a fatal problem, why do retail investors want to take short positions? As far as I know, 7% of retail investors are in Man Cang in a year.

if you really want to let retail investors take short positions, you must work hard on the trading system. For example, it can be traded in two directions, short and t+ like US stocks. Only when a large amount of money kills a large number of retail investors can it intimidate retail investors. Only when most retail investors have no money left in a short period of time will they feel scared. In China, it is almost impossible to lose a penny without capital financing, so any means can not scare retail investors.

Now our A-share system is to let the majority of retail investors participate and protect the majority of retail investors in rules. Therefore, it is impossible for all A-share retail investors in China to take short positions, even in the stock market crash in 215.

As we all know, the only difference between China's stock market and many European and American countries, even China and Hong Kong, is that China retail investors account for the majority, while European and American markets account for a small part and institutions account for the majority, so our China market is more speculative than European and American markets. We have been on business trips to Hong Kong before, and few retail investors make stocks in Hong Kong market, and most of them discuss foreign exchange market. This means that most retail investors are unique to China market. Then, if there are no retail investors in China A-shares or short positions do not buy stocks, how about A-shares? Let's make a good analysis:

1. If there are no retail investors in A-shares, then the market must be an institution, and the existence of hot money must correspond to that of retail investors, so if there are no retail investors, the hot money will disappear, so only institutions will be left, and the speculative nature of A-shares will be reduced and the stocks with good performance will continue to rise. The stocks with poor performance keep falling, because institutions buy stocks and even the national team and social security definitely choose stocks with performance support. Well, junk stocks will not be touched, which also explains why there are many fairy stocks in Hong Kong stocks (fairy stocks mean that the stock price is less than HK$ 1). At this time, the speculation of A shares will be reduced, and the market will tend to a mature market. This is what de-retailing means.

But what netizens emphasize is not that there are no retail investors, but that retail investors have short positions (this is an imaginary market). What will happen? Let's analyze it.

2. Retail investors are short positions. Bankers or hot money can't find retail investors to take over. As long as retail investors are still waiting and refusing to buy, then the banker will keep pulling the stock price. At that time, when I was a trader in a private equity institution, we pulled the stock price to a certain price and reached our target price. But what if no retail investors are willing to take over at this time? At this time, our trader's method is to continue to pull the stock price up to induce retail investors. After seeing it, retail investors feel regret that they didn't buy it, which makes them unbearable. That feeling must be a torment. If we can't help chasing it, we will be quilted. And even if we pull retail investors to refuse to buy it and pull it to the second highest position, we will smash the stock price to the position that we thought of last time. When we get to this position, many retail investors will think about it and make a callback. As a result, many retail investors are willing to buy it. Because in their minds, they don't think this is chasing high. If retail investors have been short-selling, I think this will always be the case. In the past, a typical stock was all-pass education. Let's take a look:

This hypothesis depends on whether retail investors are all short-selling, or whether they are all short-selling. The two situations may be very different.

if all retail investors sell their stocks and short positions, it goes without saying that there must be a super stock market crash! At present, retail investors hold 43% of the market value of circulation, 3% of institutions and 27% of legal persons. That is to say, retail investors are the biggest bookmakers as a whole.

If all retail investors sell out, brokers will close down first, because institutions don't have to trade through brokerage channels, and brokerage commission income will be zero. Most listed companies will fall beyond recognition, and according to the current shareholder pledge situation, there will be almost 2, short positions.

at this time, there will be two situations in the listed company. One is to protect the controlling right for normal operation, and the other kind of shareholders themselves will take the pledge to cash in, so they will let them fall and close their positions and give up the company.

after the retail investors are emptied, the stock price begins to stabilize. As there is only a game between institutions or institutions and shareholders who have reduced their holdings, most of the stocks will still be abandoned, because institutions will not reduce their holdings for shareholders, unless they are truly valuable growth companies, and such companies will only be 1% to 2% in A shares. At that time, good companies, garbage companies and problem companies would stand in the sun.

A-shares without retail investors will only have a partial structural market in the future, and the index will reflect the economic characteristics. Like US stocks and Hong Kong stocks, unicorns will lead the market, and 8% or 9% of companies will be marginalized and become zombie stocks. Hundred-dollar stocks and fairy stocks will co-exist in the market, which is more advanced and international than the current US stocks and Hong Kong stocks.

There is no retail participation in the stock market, and the most popular one will be the fund industry, while most of the securities firms have closed down and merged into a few large securities firms. This kind of situation will never be seen in your lifetime!