[? Billion euro guide? ]? How will the acceleration button pressed by the new infrastructure ripen the market?

Author Ding Unique

Editor Zhang Yuzhe

Charging piles are moving towards the "tuyere".

on April 9th, at the press conference held by the joint prevention and control mechanism in the State Council, Cai Ronghua, deputy director of the Industrial Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, released a set of data: it is estimated that the investment of 1 billion yuan will be completed this year, with about 2, new public charging piles, 4, private piles and 48, new public charging stations.

in the past ten years, about 45, public charging piles have been built in China.

at this speed, the construction of charging piles has entered a period of rapid policy promotion.

The spreading epidemic is causing the global economy to press the pause button. In China's automobile industry, factory shutdown, layoffs and salary cuts, and supply chain rupture have become the lingering shadows under the epidemic. However, due to the emergence of "new infrastructure", the segmentation of new energy vehicle charging infrastructure has shown development vitality.

after being officially included in the "new infrastructure", the good news of the charging pile industry continues. Under the instigation of policies, various capitals were injected one after another. In March, when the epidemic was shrouded, the charging pile industry intensively harvested three financings, including "outsider" Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited and Ant Financial.

The charging and replacing industry has been troubled in the previous growth process, and high investment, high return period and low utilization rate have all become the constraints of profitability. According to the growth cycle of an industry, Yiou Automobile believes that the charging pile industry can be divided into four stages: the trial in the embryonic stage, the blindfolded rush in the initial formation stage, the high-quality growth in the development stage and the steady progress in the mature stage.

with the confirmation of the status of "new infrastructure", China's charging infrastructure industry has gained a high-quality development stage, but there is still a certain distance to mature.

1? The first stage that failed to meet expectations

dates back to 26, when BYD built the first new energy vehicle charging station in China at its Shenzhen headquarters, and the historical curtain of China charging pile industry was opened.

Then in 28, during the Beijing Olympic Games, the first centralized charging station in China was built, which can meet the charging demand of power batteries for 5 pure electric buses. In 29, the first batch of electric vehicle charging piles put into operation by China Southern Power Grid were built in Shenzhen, with a construction scale of 2 charging stations and 134 charging piles.

At that time, out of optimistic expectation for the development of new energy automobile industry, State Grid once dreamed of unifying the field of charging facilities, just like PetroChina and Sinopec in gas stations.

subsequently, the state grid raised the construction plan of charging and replacing power stations three times.

in p>21, in the 12th Five-Year Intelligent Power Grid Plan, the State Grid proposed that 94 charging and replacing power stations and 233, charging piles would be built during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, with a total investment of 21.71 billion yuan.

in September 211, Liu Zhenya, then general manager of State Grid Corporation of China, extended the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" target to 2,9 charging and replacing power stations and 54, charging piles at the 211 Smart Grid International Forum. Then, in June 213, according to the report of State Grid News, during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, State Grid Corporation increased the number again, and planned to build 3,7 electric vehicle charging and replacing power stations and 34, charging piles.

charging pile/? 123rf

The ideal is full, but the reality is very "skinny".

The Social Responsibility Report of State Grid Corporation of China (213) shows that by the end of 213, State Grid Corporation of China had built 4 electric vehicle charging and replacing stations and 19, charging piles. The original planned investment has increased year by year. In terms of construction quantity, the construction of charging and replacing power stations slowed down in 212, and only 47 were built in 213.

the Flag set up by China southern power grid has also experienced the fate of falling. Previously, China Southern Power Grid and Shenzhen Municipal Government reached an agreement to build 89 charging stations and 29,5 charging piles in Shenzhen by 212. It is estimated that the total investment will exceed 1 billion yuan. However, according to the Social Responsibility Report of China Southern Power Grid Corporation (212), by the end of 212, China Southern Power Grid had only built 18 charging and replacing power stations and 3,229 charging piles.

when it comes to the slowdown in the construction of charging and replacing power stations, it is still difficult to get around the hurdle of "difficulty in making profits". Insiders of the State Grid once said that more than 4 charging and replacing power stations that had been built at that time had almost no profitable projects and were in a state of loss across the board. China Southern Power Grid Branch also said that its seven charging stations built and operated in Shenzhen have an annual loss of 13 million yuan.

the early charging piles were "carefully explored" in this way. On the one hand, the "fruit" of huge losses is not sweet; On the other hand, the huge gap of charging piles is still a constraint to the development of new energy vehicles.

2? Blindfolded for six years

After p>214, the charging pile market was officially opened.

In p>214, State Grid announced the full opening of the grid-connected project of distributed power supply and the market of electric vehicle exchange facilities. This means that the charging pile market is no longer only controlled by state-owned enterprises, and private capital also has a chance to share a piece of it. In the same year, special calls and star charging, which ranked first and second in the field of public charging piles, were established one after another.

another key factor of the explosive charging pile industry is that the new energy vehicle market has entered a high-speed growth stage.

in p>214, Tesla entered the China market, breaking the "stereotype" of China consumers on new energy vehicles. After being "educated" by Tesla, China's new energy automobile market has become one of the important battlefields for major automobile manufacturers, and a large number of new energy automobile products have sprung up.

in p>214, China produced a total of 83,9 new energy vehicles and sold 74, vehicles, more than quadrupling the production and sales data of 17,5 vehicles and 17,6 vehicles in 213.

In October p>215, the General Office of the State Council issued "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Charging Infrastructure for Electric Vehicles", and it is planned to basically build a scale to meet the charging needs of more than 5 million electric vehicles by 22.

the double overweight of market and policy has turned the charging pile market into a red sea. For a time, state-owned capital and private enterprises swarmed and set off a charging pile construction frenzy. The fierceness of the frenzy is reflected in the number of charging piles.

watchmaker/? Yiou Automobile Analyst? Ding Unique

By the end of 215, there were only 57, public charging facilities in China. This figure has reached 1.219 million units by the end of 219, an increase of 21 times. At the same time of the high-speed construction of charging piles, the national vehicle-pile ratio level has been continuously optimized, from 7.8:1 in 215 to 3.4:1 by the end of 219.

But behind the good-looking figures, it is supported by the way of barbaric growth.

in the past few years, the track of charging pile industry was crowded for a time, but the collision problems were everywhere: high input cost, low utilization rate, poor user experience and weak concept of * * *, which led to the whole industry falling into a difficult profit dilemma.

even the special call from the head enterprise in the charging pile industry has not escaped the loss. TELD accumulated a loss of 6 million yuan in the first four years of its establishment, and did not make a profit until April 219. Yu Dexiang, the chairman of TEL, was blunt when interviewed by the media: "TEL has lost 8 million yuan in recent years, and others can't do it without losing 5 million yuan."

due to the heavy investment assets and long payback period in the charging pile industry, after more than ten years of development, the charging pile market has formed a highly concentrated pattern-the top three in the industry, such as special calls, star charging and State Grid, accounting for more than 7% of the market share.

watchmaker/? Yiou Automobile Analyst? Ding Unique

Therefore, although it is easy to enter the game, not many players persist on the track. Zhao Jian, general manager of TELD brand, revealed in the previous interview that there are about 3 charging pile enterprises in China in 217. But by 219, 5% of enterprises will either close down or withdraw from the industry, and 3% of enterprises will struggle on the benchmark of breakeven.

With the end of the blindfolded rush, the persistent charging infrastructure enterprises are looking for a healthy growth path.

3? Towards maturity

In March, 22, charging piles were formally included in seven new infrastructure projects in China.

in the view of yiou automobile, the establishment of the status of "new infrastructure" is an important symbol of the charging infrastructure industry from blindfolded to high-quality development stage.

big hands and new players are the most direct signs that the charging pile market has entered the third stage.

at the beginning of March, the charging pile operator, the largest in China, made a special call to complete a total capital increase of 1.35 billion yuan, and newly introduced CDH investment and state-funded fund. Among them, CDH Investment is a well-known institution that manages assets of 1 billion yuan, while the State Fund is the largest private equity investment fund in China with a national team background and assets under management of 35 billion yuan.

on March 6th, the third day after the central government set the tone for the new infrastructure, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, who is mainly engaged in power batteries, and Fujian Baicheng New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. set up a joint venture company, Shanghai Kuaibu New Energy, which is mainly engaged in charging piles for new energy vehicles.

On March 27th, Ant Financial also took a stake in Simple Charge, a charging pile operating company, and became its second largest shareholder, accounting for 33% of the shares.

in addition, it is foreseeable that local governments will also have policy inclinations for charging infrastructure. At the end of March, Shanghai began to provide installation subsidies for charging piles. Not long ago, Beijing, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Shandong and other places have also issued support policies for charging piles.

driven by capital and policies, the charging pile market itself will also undergo a reshuffle.

"newness" in new infrastructure is the key to make charging piles different from ordinary infrastructure. Tian Bo, CEO of Yunkuai Charging, once said to Yiou Automobile: "The new infrastructure is different from the traditional infrastructure, paying more attention to the construction of the operating platform of charging facilities, and accelerating the integration of pile networking and vehicle networking."

In the future, the charging pile industry will be inseparable from the synergy of new technologies and new fields such as big data and 5G. Such work cannot be completed by the charging operator alone. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why Ant Financial and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, who have never waded into the charging pile market before, will enter the market one after another.

among them, charging operators can obtain data through charging and open up the data chain of travel and living services. The original single charging business has more value-added services, and the future profit model will also have more exploration.

electric vehicle charging/? Pexels

however, the establishment of the status of "new infrastructure" does not mean that the future development of charging piles will be smooth sailing. The guidelines for the development of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (215-22) released during the 13th Five-Year Plan period show that by the end of 22, China will achieve the goal of 1: 1 ratio of vehicles to piles. As of February 22, this figure only reached 3.2: 1. To make matters worse, the COVID-19 epidemic is still dragging down the development speed of the industry. Therefore, it may not be easy to achieve such a goal in 22.

although the current industry development is far from the target level planned in 215, Yiou Automobile still has great confidence in the development of the charging infrastructure industry in the next five years. In recent years, global automobile enterprises have begun to move towards electrification, mass production of power battery technologies such as CTP, more and more efficient charging stations have been completed, the cost of new energy vehicles has gradually dropped, and V2G technology is getting closer and closer to mass production ... The vitality of the charging infrastructure industry will also be continuously improved.

At the 5th China Electric Vehicle committee of 1 Forum held in January this year, Ou Yangming Gao, academician of China Academy of Sciences and executive vice president of China Electric Vehicle committee of 1, predicted that before 225, the technologies related to lithium-ion batteries and fuel cells will be fully mature, and the electrification turning point will come; At the same time, the inflection point of new energy power generation price will also come.

Yiou Automobile predicts that around 225, as the competitiveness of new energy vehicles gradually surpasses that of fuel vehicles, the development period of the charging infrastructure market will also end and formally enter a mature stage.

therefore, based on the good development prospect of new energy vehicles, charging piles as its supporting energy-supplementing facilities will also grow, whether actively or passively.

after the acceleration button is pressed in the new infrastructure, the rapid layout of charging piles has become a key factor to promote the development of new energy vehicles, but it is not the only reason to restrict consumers' purchase.

(Recently, Yiou Automobile is promoting the Research Report on the Development Expectation of Charging Infrastructure in China from 22 to 225. Welcome to exchange views. )

This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.