in p>28, under the background of steady and slow world economy and tight domestic macro-control policies, China's economic operation will stabilize at a high level, the economic growth rate will drop slightly, the rising trend of consumer prices will slow down, the employment situation will continue to improve, the investment in fixed assets will cool down slightly, the consumer goods market will be active and vigorous, and the growth rate of foreign trade surplus will drop somewhat. The focus of macro-control is still to prevent the economy from turning from fast to overheated, and to guard against inflation and financial risks. It is suggested that a prudent fiscal policy and a moderately tight monetary policy should be implemented in 28, and the coordination of macro-control policies should be strengthened to improve the effectiveness of macro-control policies.

an analysis of the domestic and international environment of China's economy in 28

From 23 to 27, the progress of science and technology and economic globalization made the performance of the world economy significantly better than the average level of the previous 3 years, and China's economy became more active, maintaining an average annual growth rate of more than 1% for five consecutive years. According to the trend analysis of major factors, the fundamental factors that constitute the rapid growth of the world economy and China's economy have not changed much in 28, and the domestic and international environment for China's economic growth is still favorable.

(I) International economic environment

There were some uncertainties in the international economic environment in p>28. The primary factor is how much impact the US subprime mortgage crisis will have on the US and the world economy. We believe that the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis has increased the potential risks of the US economy, but it will not seriously endanger the world economy. Judging from the scale of subprime debt, it is estimated that the total value of subprime floating rate mortgage loans in the United States is about $75 billion to $1.2 trillion. Through mortgage backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligation (CDO), most of the subprime loans are securitized and held by funds and banks in the United States, Europe, Japan and other regions and countries, and the risks are highly dispersed around the world. According to the current situation of sub-prime loan default, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke estimated that the loan loss was about $5 billion to $1 billion, and Moody's estimated that the loss was $113 billion. If all the economic losses are borne by the United States, it will reduce the American economy by about 1 percentage point. If the economic losses are shared by the United States, Europe and Japan, the world economy will be reduced by ? About 3 percentage points. After the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan quickly injected liquidity into the market, which has played a certain role in stabilizing market expectations, and the international financial market is basically stable. After the continuous interest rate cuts in the United States, the floating interest rate of subprime mortgage loans will be lowered accordingly, and the default situation of subprime loans will be improved. Of course, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis will spread from the financial sector to the real sector, real estate prices will continue to fall, real estate wealth effect will affect the growth of American consumption, it is difficult for the American economy to improve significantly, and the euro zone and Japan will also be implicated to some extent, thus dragging down the global economy. Every economic crisis has a process of gradual spread. Historical experience shows that people tend to underestimate the potential risks of the crisis at the beginning of the crisis. If the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has a great impact on the economies of the United States and major western industrial countries, it will inevitably have a great impact on China's exports and thus on China's economic growth. Secondly, the adverse impact of rising international oil prices on the world economy has increased. Due to the recent sharp rise in international oil prices, it continued to rise after breaking through $9 a barrel. If the U.S. economy tends to slow down, but at the same time, it does not dare to loosen monetary policy obviously because of the influence of high oil prices, then the impact on the U.S. economy will be even greater, and it may spread to Japan and European countries. Although Russia and other countries that rely on oil export will have faster economic growth, because China's exports to these countries are not an order of magnitude compared with the United States, the excessive rise in oil prices is generally not conducive to the growth of China's economy and exports. In addition, the problem of unbalanced global economic development still exists, and trade protectionism is still prevalent, which will also threaten the world economy.

Although there are many uncertain factors in the world economic development in p>28, there are still many favorable factors on the whole. First of all, the basic conditions for supporting a new round of rapid world economic growth have not changed. The rapid growth of the world economy since 23 is mainly due to the continuous improvement of the basic conditions supporting growth, and the technological progress with information and communication technology as the core has improved the growth potential of the world economy. Economic globalization makes the traditional manufacturing industry transfer to developing countries, and advanced technology and management experience spread to developing countries, which improves the labor productivity of developing countries. Developed countries have passed the difficult stage of industrial hollowing out in the early stage of industrial transfer, and made breakthroughs in industrial restructuring. High value-added industries such as information, biology, new materials, new energy, environmental protection, aerospace and aviation, and high-end service industries such as finance have developed rapidly, and their ability to absorb employment has been significantly enhanced, and the unemployment rate has dropped to a low level. A "win-win" situation has emerged in the process of globalization between developing countries and developed countries, which is the fundamental factor for the new round of strong world economic growth. This basic pattern will not be reversed in 28, but will be further strengthened. Secondly, the world grain is expected to have a bumper harvest in 27. According to the preliminary forecast of the International Food and Agriculture Organization, the world grain output increased by 4? 8%, there is little room for further increase in world food prices in 28, and there may be a trend of high stabilization or even a slight decline, which will be conducive to the stability of consumer prices in all countries of the world. Third, emerging market economies are growing strongly and have become an important locomotive of world economic growth. In 27, China, India and Russia contributed half of the global economic growth rate. In 27, Russia's economic growth rate was 7? More than 2%, maintained at around 7% for four consecutive years. India's economy reached its highest growth rate in the past 18 years in fiscal year 26, with an increase of 9? 4%, the growth rate in 27 will be 8? About 5%. Different from previous financial turmoil, emerging market economies have not been significantly affected by the subprime mortgage crisis, and their economic operations are relatively stable. This new change in the world economic structure has reduced the dependence of developing countries on developed countries and greatly enhanced the ability of the world economy to resist the joint impact of the economic slowdown in developed countries. Fourth, there will be no shortage of global liquidity. Although there was a temporary lack of liquidity in the market after the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the macro-control measures of various countries became more and more mature. No matter developed or developing countries, the macro-control policies were more flexible and pragmatic, and they could be actively adjusted according to changes in the economic situation. Since August 27, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have rapidly injected a lot of liquidity into the market, and the United States has also lowered the discount rate and the federal benchmark interest rate. American monetary policy is the weather vane of global monetary policy, and global monetary policy has begun to be adjusted from moderately tight to neutral or neutral loose, which is conducive to stabilizing financial markets, stimulating investment and promoting economic growth. After the panic in the financial market subsides, liquidity will gradually recover.

generally speaking, although the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis has increased the uncertainty of the world economic prospects, the favorable factors supporting the world economic growth in 28 will still be stronger than the unfavorable factors, so the basic factors for the stable and rapid growth of the world economy have not changed. It is estimated that the world economic growth rate in 28 will be 4? 8%, roughly the same as in 27, while the economic growth rate of the United States, the euro zone and Japan is about 1? 8%、2? 3% and 1 8%。 It is estimated that the economic growth rates of India and Russia will be around 8% and 7% in 28, and emerging market countries will continue to provide impetus for world economic growth. The World Trade Organization predicts that the growth rate of global trade in goods in 27 will be 9? 2% dropped to around 7%, and the growth rate of world trade in 28 was basically the same as that in 27.

(II) Domestic economic environment

In p>28, domestic institutional policy environment, supply conditions of production factors and other factors were conducive to maintaining steady and rapid economic growth. The 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will guide China's economic system to further deepen reform in the direction of scientific and harmonious development, and further optimize the institutional conditions for economic development. The macro-control measures introduced in 27 will show more positive policy effects in 28, which will help to alleviate the prominent contradictions and eliminate the unstable factors in the domestic economic operation. Maintaining high economic and investment growth for several years in a row will keep the economic operation in a fast growth inertia. The production capacity formed by the climax of fixed assets investment in the past five years will be put into production in 28, which will greatly enhance the supply guarantee ability of China's economic growth. Taking energy as an example, from 23 to 26, * * added 639.8 million tons/year of raw coal, 81.74 million tons/year of natural crude oil and 37.3 billion cubic meters/year of natural gas, and added 2? 5 million kilowatts. From January to September 27, the power generation increased by 16? 4%, the output of raw coal increased by 11%, and the total energy production increased by 1? 4%, the basic conditions of coal, electricity and oil transportation have been further improved. The situation of basic industries and infrastructure construction projects in 26 is shown in Figure 1. The domestic labor supply is sufficient, the savings rate remains high, and scientific and technological progress is accelerated. Abundant national foreign exchange reserves have enhanced China's room for manoeuvre in using domestic and international resources. Under the background of economic globalization, China's resource allocation efficiency has been continuously improved, and the potential capacity for economic growth has been enhanced. It is expected that the total social supply and total demand will continue to maintain a basic balance.

Of course, there are some uncertainties in the domestic economic operation in 28. First, it is more difficult to further increase production after four consecutive years of bumper harvests. The tight balance of domestic grain and other major agricultural products and the sharp rise in international agricultural prices are gradually changing the pattern of basic balance of agricultural products and surplus in bumper years, and there is great uncertainty in the price trend of agricultural products. Second, there has been excessive money liquidity in successive years, and the monetary conditions needed for inflation have long existed objectively. In 27, residents and enterprises formed certain expectations for price increases, and there was great uncertainty about the new price increase factors of consumer prices in 28. Third, the securities market has accumulated great risks. The overall valuation level of the market exceeds the historical high and most overseas markets, and the performance expectation is overdrawn to a certain extent. In the next stage, there may be a big shock or even continuous adjustment. How to reduce the adverse impact of the virtual economy on the real economy while dissolving the risks in the securities market will be a severe test for macro-control. Fourth, the slowdown in exports may lead to the obvious contradiction of overcapacity in some industries, which will have an adverse impact on new employment, enterprise benefits and fiscal revenue.