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The influence of the rise and fall of blue-chip stocks on the fund
The influence of the rise and fall of blue-chip stocks on the fund

The recent surge in blue-chip stocks makes people feel deja vu. Yes, the blue-chip market started in the fourth quarter of last year, and the massive buying by fund managers at that time played a role in fueling the situation.

Looking back to the present, we can see that since the beginning of this year, fund managers have focused on investing in growth stocks represented by the Growth Enterprise Market, with less allocation to traditional cyclical industries. Therefore, the more blue-chip stocks soar, the more uncomfortable most active foundations feel. Why are they uncomfortable? Rank! Because there is less than one month left in the year-end ranking, and the performance gap of many funds is very small. If you don't adjust your position properly and buy some blue chips, it is likely to affect the year-end ranking and ultimately affect the fund manager's year-end bonus. I see, it's a herd effect. Therefore, the blue-chip market at the end of the year can still be expected.

The question is, if the spring switch comes true, which funds can be laid out?

Steady investors pay attention to blue-chip funds that have gained a lot this week.

The stock market is going to be blue-chip, and which active funds benefit the most, of course, the funds with heavy blue-chip positions. The question is, where are they? Some friends may say. Look at the three quarterly reports, and you will know which funds have heavy positions in financial and real estate stocks, hehe. The financial manager thought so at first, but this is undoubtedly a boat for a sword. More than two months have passed, and many fund positions have long been unrecognizable. Judging from the positions held at the end of the third quarter, which blue-chip funds are really unreliable.

What should we do? It's simple. Look at which funds run fast in three trading days this week. Due to the serious differentiation between blue-chip stocks and growth stocks in these three trading days this week, the net value of most growth-style funds fell, and those with a large increase in net value often held heavy positions in blue-chip stocks. If you are optimistic about blue-chip stocks, it is right to focus on these funds.

Active funds with heavy blue-chip stocks

Trend investors pay attention to blue-chip ETFs, but they should grasp the rhythm and pay attention to risks.

Investors who are keen on the market are more inclined to seize investment opportunities by investing in on-site funds. In this regard, blue-chip ETF and Grade B have become important choices for such investors. There are many blue-chip ETFs in the market, but the liquidity varies greatly. Investors should choose ETFs with large trading volume and close tracking index to invest.

Blue chip ETF with relatively good liquidity

Aggressive investors focus on the blue-chip grading fund B, paying attention to the leverage of various varieties.

For investors who can take certain risks and expect to get excess returns, the B share of blue-chip graded funds is their best choice. Wealth managers screened out the blue-chip style grade B with good liquidity for investors, and divided it into different sectors, including banks, brokers, big finance, securities and insurance, real estate, steel, food and beverage, etc. Because the net leverage of each grade B is different, investors can choose varieties with different net worth according to their risk tolerance. Of course, the higher the leverage, the greater the fluctuation, and the greater the risk that investors take.

List of major blue chip style grades b

Finally, for today's stock market performance, let's listen to what the partners of several fund companies say. Financial managers found that they didn't seem interested in style change.

China Resources Yuanda Fund: We should guard against the shock caused by the recent market style switch.

On Wednesday, the two markets were mixed. Driven by the upward trend of financial, real estate, steel and other heavyweights, the main board index fluctuated upward, and the Growth Enterprise Market fell against the market under the influence of the withdrawal of theme stocks.

Overall, this week, the market style changed obviously, the market volatility intensified, and the blue-chip market showed signs of recovery. From the news point of view, the Central Economic Work Conference will involve real estate issues, personal loan interest tax deduction, and RMB's entry into SDR will help domestic asset prices rise, triggering a strong rise in the real estate sector on Wednesday.

Judging from next year's economic policy, "wide finance and stable currency" will stimulate economic growth from the supply side, and key industries supported by the state are expected to benefit. On the whole, the gains of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and Shanghai 50 Index today will lay a solid foundation for the rise of the market outlook. Last week, the number of new investors reached a new high since 18 weeks. Market sentiment shows from one side that the current index will not retreat sharply, and investors need to guard against the shock caused by the recent market style switch.

Baoying Fund: The market lacks the motivation to form a sustained upward trend.

Yesterday, the IMF announced that RMB will join SDR next year, which boosted market sentiment to some extent, and RMB assets have been positively affected for a long time. However, after the short-term positive cash, the market not only lacks big positive expectations, but also has the shadow of the Fed raising interest rates. Under the condition that the game situation of stock funds has not changed, it is difficult for large-cap blue-chip stocks to achieve sustained breakthroughs.

Today's active performance can be seen more as the regression process of value stocks, the correction of last Friday's mistake, and then the recovery rebound. Technically, the SSE 50 index rose 4.8% today, successfully crossed the 10, 20 and 30-day moving averages, once again approached the semi-annual line position and re-entered the previous shock platform. However, the chip-intensive area above is obvious, and it is under the pressure of the half-year line, and the short-term breakthrough pressure is greater.

Although the Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, the turnover was less than 400 billion yuan, lacking the momentum to form a sustained rise, and there was limited room for future growth. Growth enterprise market is shrinking today. From the perspective of the disk, there is a serious shortage of buying, but the selling pressure has also slowed down slightly, and it is still necessary to adjust in the short term.

Although the Growth Enterprise Market is still in the adjustment stage, small and medium-sized enterprises should be the hot spots sought after by the market in the future, and the game of stock funds is more conducive to the emergence of high-quality growth stocks. Investors can pay close attention to the flow of funds. When the adjustment of GEM is coming to an end, the new funds are gradually thawed, and the stock funds return to growth stocks from heavyweights, so we can expect a rapid rebound.

Chen Ping, HSBC Jintrust Science and Technology Pioneer Fund Manager: The current "style switch" is the technical adjustment of growth stocks and the valuation repair of blue chips.

Bet big or small?

The bridge that often appears in this TV series has recently puzzled investors. With the continuous strength of blue-chip stocks represented by real estate, the trend of blue-chip stocks and growth sectors has diverged recently. Is it a new round of style switching?

However, not necessarily.

For the recent trend differentiation, we believe that the two are both internally related and independent, and should not be simply understood as style switching.

First of all, the strength of real estate stocks stems from recent rumors about income tax deduction. However, the rumor has not been exactly implemented, and the fundamentals of real estate finance and other sectors have not changed beyond expectations in the short term. Therefore, we believe that there are certain emotional factors in the strength of blue-chip stocks in the short term.

Secondly, since September, the highest growth rate of GEM has exceeded 60%, and the valuation has returned to a high level. So from a technical point of view, it really needs a process of adjustment and consolidation. We think it is normal for GEM to make use of last Friday's plunge to complete a round of adjustment.

These are relatively independent places.

The connection between the two is. It is precisely because of the inherent profit-taking and high-level adjustment impulse of GEM that market funds need to find a new layout direction. At this time, real estate stocks with improved fundamentals in the third quarterly report and favorable recent rumors have become the target of capital competition. The financial and non-bank sectors, although the fundamentals have not improved greatly, are absolutely undervalued to some extent, which is a rare valuation depression, and funds naturally flow into the above sectors.

But as judged from the beginning, we think that the adjustment of GEM is not long-term, so this round of "style switching" should not last long. The reason is:

First of all, the performance fundamentals lack support.

Growth enterprise market grew by 30% on average in the third quarter, far exceeding the blue-chip sector. Therefore, from the perspective of future performance growth, blue-chip stocks lack bright spots and support. After the valuation depression is filled, blue-chip stocks and GEM may return to the same starting line.

Second, funds lack the same conditions as the same period last year.

As we all know, one of the main reasons for the blue-chip market boom in the fourth quarter of last year was that leveraged funds such as the two financing companies flocked to the market. But looking down, with the completion of market control leverage, the growth rate of new capital supply has been greatly reduced, and the existing funds may be difficult to support the continuous blue-chip market.

Generally speaking, we believe that the current "style switching" is the technical adjustment of growth stocks and the valuation repair of blue chips. As to whether to bet big or small, we think we might as well go beyond the disk and "bet" the funds on the future of China, pay more attention to the sectors and themes that represent the future economic development direction of China, such as TMT, environmental protection, state-owned enterprise reform and high-end manufacturing, and grasp the great opportunity of China's economic transformation and upgrading.