Yu 'ebao, how will this financial giant grow? 250 billion, although such astronomical figures make many IMF partners stunned, it may be far from the ceiling of Yu' ebao.
Alipay's internal KPI assessment target for Yu 'ebao 20 14 is tentatively set at 500 billion yuan.
If the rate of return does not drop sharply, it will take less than one year to achieve this goal with the current net inflow of funds. Trillion may not be a problem.
According to the fund manager's calculation, judging from the existing investment target ability of domestic money funds, the money funds will develop to 1 in the short term.
The space between 5-2 trillion is not a problem.
Is Yu 'ebao the only monopolist in the money fund market? Yu 'ebao will leverage one-tenth of the bank's existing demand deposits 16 trillion in the coming year.
What it would be like.
In fact, with the rapid expansion of Yu 'ebao, Alipay has been under pressure.
Trillion is not a dream?
Undoubtedly, in the process of interest rate marketization in China, money funds sold in the form of Internet balance financing have become an important part of deposit pricing.
At the end of 20 13 and 12, the central bank counted the total personal savings deposits of residents as 45 trillion yuan. Among them, more than 16 trillion is demand deposit, which is the largest space for Internet balance financing.
According to the monetary fund market structure of 20 13, Yu 'ebao accounts for 20% of the scale of nearly 900 billion. Including Huaxia, Yifangda, Huitianfu and other fund companies that have launched Internet channels, the money funds are slightly flat or even negative, making up for the shrinkage of traditional channels with the increase of direct sales channels.
The staff of a fund company quietly chose Yu 'ebao after downloading and comparing themselves with their peers' money fund apps. At present, although all kinds of "treasures" have sprung up like mushrooms after rain, from the convenience of operation, payment and cash withdrawal, the advantages of Yu 'ebao are overwhelming.
In terms of personal financial management, the only estimate that can compete with it in the future is the WeChat version of financial management.
To the envy of other money fund managers, except for "double 1 1", Yu 'ebao keeps a net inflow of funds almost every day.
Careful people also found that from the scale and user data disclosed by Yu 'ebao several times, its average household holdings continued to grow. At present, the average household holding of 250 billion 49 million households is 5 100 yuan.
According to a recent report of CITIC Securities (600030), the total size of the money fund will reach 2. The new height of 2 trillion yuan is roughly equivalent to 5% of demand deposits.
From the perspective of demand alone, in the process of interest rate marketization, it seems that Yu 'ebao's method of absorbing money will not fail.
A supervisor predicted that under the current situation, the scale of Yu 'ebao is not a problem. The proportion of Yu 'ebao in the total plate of the Monetary Fund may continue to increase from 20%.
What about the management of the money fund? Is there a problem with the management of the trillion-dollar monetary fund?
Wang Dengfeng, fund manager of Tian Hongzeng Libao behind Yu 'ebao, has 4 years' experience.
Tian Hong Zenglibao 20 13 quarterly report disclosed the investment details of this giant money fund.
In its asset portfolio, bank deposits and settlement reserves account for 92. 5%, bond investment is only 6. 7%。 That is, more than 90% of Yu 'ebao's assets are invested in the bank's agreed deposits.
Another major difference between the Fund and most money funds is that the average remaining period of its portfolio at the end of the reporting period is only 565,438+0 days, and the average remaining period is less than 30 days, accounting for 63%. 69%。 That is, more than half of the bank agreement deposits invested by Yu 'ebao have a term of no more than 1 month.
Compared with many money funds, including Huaxia Cash Zengli E and Huitianfu cash treasure, which are also sold online, Yu 'ebao is definitely the money fund with the shortest remaining term in China, and this portfolio is unique among money funds.
"The IMF emphasizes liquidity management. The biggest advantage of Yu 'ebao is the net inflow of funds and many retail investors, and the big data analysis ability of the Internet can make predictions on liquidity management, which also determines its abnormal investment portfolio.
The person in charge of the fixed income department of a fund company said.
In other words, the work done by Yu 'ebao is very simple, and the change is deposited in short-term bank deposits. The latter's current rate of return is 5-6%, and it is basically unnecessary to exert its active management ability.
Especially in the "money shortage" in June and June, 165438+ 10, Yu' ebao is not short of money, and its yield can basically be synchronized with the interbank lending rate.
According to the analysis of a money fund manager, the scale of interbank deposits is roughly 10 trillion, which is the most important investment target of e-commerce currency. If non-bank institutions participate in 20% of the total, the size of the investable deposits of the Monetary Fund is 2 trillion yuan, which can support the development space of the Monetary Fund.
In his view, under the existing investment environment, there is almost no upper limit for the management of a single money fund. The remaining investment period of e-commerce money funds is generally within 90 days, and the invested deposits will be replaced once every quarter, which is equivalent to re-opening positions, and there will be no obvious difference in yield.
It is reported that Tian Hong Fund and Alipay will also target hundreds of millions of families. It seems that the road of Yu 'ebao's Big Mac will continue.
But all this has a premise.
The threat is coming.
In the initial stage of interest rate marketization, maintaining the market interest rate at a high level is the biggest prerequisite for Yu 'ebao's survival.
In the United States, the initial process of interest rate liberalization lasted for 2-3 years. However, if this process goes too fast, or Yu 'ebao is not "temperate", what will happen?
The biggest advantage of Yu 'ebao's investment operation is the net inflow of funds, and once the net inflow of funds is broken, the problems of its liquidity management and T+0 buffer will be highlighted.
In the investment cycle of the money fund, there will be investment alternation between deposits and bonds from time to time. In the long run, the flat yield curve without differentiation is unsustainable, and the short-term deposit interest rate will eventually fall. How to guarantee the yield of Yu' ebao after that?
In addition to agreement deposits, the current central bank bills, financial bonds and short-term financing with strong liquidity and default risk are limited, which can only support about 1 trillion monetary fund at most.
In the view of the senior person in charge of the above-mentioned fixed income department, imagine that no one or even a team in China dares to be competent for a monetary fund of hundreds of billions to invest in the bond market.
Let's look at the agreement deposits that Yu 'ebao currently relies on. A major prerequisite for a large amount of money fund investment is that it can be withdrawn in advance without penalty interest. This policy is actually a "preferential policy" given to the Monetary Fund by the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and it is not market-oriented.
This means that the money fund does not have to bear the interest rate risk of the investment target, and once it needs to be withdrawn in advance, the interest rate loss will be borne by the bank. "Once the net inflow of Yu 'ebao is broken, hundreds of billions of agreed deposits can be withdrawn in advance without penalty interest, which is a time bomb for banks. If the China Banking Regulatory Commission stops this preferential policy, the whole game of the money fund will not be played any more, and Yu 'ebao will immediately lie down.
"A fund company executive said.
From the perspective of investment operation, it is possible that the net inflow of Yu 'ebao was broken because of the decline in yield, or the net inflow was broken, which led to the decline in the yield of management problems. Rationally speaking, the continuous net inflow of funds from Yu 'ebao can't be normal, and whether Tian Hong can establish a fixed-income team that can give full play to its active management ability and manage hundreds of billions of funds is an important foundation for its sustainable development.
Yu 'ebao's opponent is no longer a small partner of the fund industry, and its biggest threat comes from the counterattack of the banking industry. In 20 14, the biggest competition for Yu' ebao will come from the awakening of bank agent channel T+0 or from the above-mentioned regulatory layer.
A commercial banker analyzed that Yu 'ebao is now 250 billion. Based on its annualized rate of return of 5-6%, it can create a profit of 654.38+05 billion yuan a year, while the original 250 billion yuan is in the bank's current deposit, and the bank only needs to give 0.
35% to 0. The deposit interest rate is about 85%, which is about 500 million. In this way, the difference of 654.38+0.45 billion yuan is the bank loss.
If 45 trillion demand deposits need to pay an extra 3% interest margin, it is 1. 5 trillion. This has slightly exceeded the overall income of commercial banks.
China Industrial and Commercial Bank (60 1398), China Construction Bank (60 1939) and Ping An Bank (00000 1) have all prepared or launched their own T+0 monetary funds to counter Yu 'ebao's way of attracting gold.
It is worth noting that Yu 'ebao currently has 49 million users, while Alipay has 1 active accounts.
500-200 million households. An Alipay insider is slightly worried: the most active third has already bought Yu 'ebao, and then, among Alipay internal users, new "investor education" is needed to open up the market.
Alipay is under pressure
In fact, the outside world can already see through the pressure of Alipay's operation.
Excluding the cost loss of the previous reserve income, the cost that Yu 'ebao needs to bear comes from two parts: early payment and transfer. There are rumors in the industry that Alipay has incurred hundreds of millions of extra costs in the Yu 'ebao project.
A few days ago, Alipay issued the latest regulations, and the funds of Yu 'ebao customers were transferred to the scale of Alipay funds. The single amount did not exceed 50,000 in a single day and 200,000 in a single month.
It is speculated that this is caused by the constraint of Yu 'ebao.
Money funds usually need to be redeemed in T+2 days, but in order to facilitate the experience of Internet users, Yu 'ebao can realize real-time payment and consumption. According to an insider of Alipay, the consumption of Yu 'ebao does not need funds. Taobao's internal in-transit design of 7 days can meet the requirements of redemption time, but the transfer of Yu 'ebao involves financial problems, including transfer to Alipay and bank cards.
Usually, the money fund T+0 needs fund companies to allocate funds, but for the balance treasure of 250 billion yuan, it is obvious that Tian Hong Fund does not have such ability. The expenses of advance payment will be borne by Alipay, and perhaps the Tian Hong Foundation will use management fees to make up for it.
According to insiders, a monetary fund of 654.38+0 billion yuan may need 500 million yuan to prepare in advance, which means Alipay may need to prepare10 billion yuan for Yu 'ebao.
At the same time, any bank card transferred to Yu 'ebao involves the transfer fee, which shall be borne by Alipay.
Yu 'ebao is hosted by CITIC Bank (60 1998), and the operation with other banks is inter-bank transfer. General banks and third-party payments will negotiate this price, and the highest price is two thousandths of each transaction. The price negotiated between Alipay and the bank is unknown to the outside world.
250 billion yuan, 0. Based on the management fee of 33%, Yu 'ebao earned 8. 2.5 billion yuan. However, every time its scale is upgraded, there are a lot of online and offline marketing activities, and the cost has been calculated in billions.
The reporter learned that the second phase of Yu 'ebao, which was called "Plan No.9" by Ali, recently organized a fund company to resubmit the plan. The product is called "fixed period treasure" and tentatively is an open platform product.
Alipay requires grading and regular products, but the yield is higher than Yu 'ebao. The most important feature is that there is a closed period, and the product may go online in March. It is also reported that Ali is currently negotiating with a large-scale photovoltaic power plant investment and operator, expecting to securitize the assets of photovoltaic power plants, and it is also very likely to dock the fixed-term treasure.
No matter how long it takes, the interest rate of monetary wealth management of investment bank agreement deposits will inevitably fall. Ali pays more attention to the cash management function of Yu 'ebao for existing individual users, while fixed-term treasure can meet customers' financial needs from the rate of return, and regular operation will greatly reduce the cost of Alipay.
Some bankers have analyzed that Yu 'ebao may also use Ali's big data analysis ability to build a many-to-many "fund dismantling platform", quote to commercial banks that need funds according to their own specific conditions and market capital prices, and improve their income through intraday trading. Commercial banks can use this money to continue to match their non-standard businesses; Or in the second phase of Yu 'ebao, you can invest your money in Ali Small Loan to earn high interest spread income.
However, a person from ICBC is worried that Yu 'ebao is robbing the bank and squeezing the bank, or the money is idling. The bank is not worried that you will rob my market, but that you will disturb the market order.
For fund companies, at present, many fund companies have given up the competition with Internet platforms in personal money fund users and turned to cash management of small and medium-sized enterprises.
At present, Yu 'ebao only opens accounts for individual users, with an upper limit of 6.5438+0 million yuan. A large number of Taobao merchants are already using Yu 'ebao. Due to the anti-money laundering policy of the central bank, the account opening of institutional users' funds has not been realized electronically, and there are also problems in the management of electronic bill funds by enterprises. Many funds have begun to focus on the market segments that Alipay doesn't care about, and develop the enterprise version of "Bao Yue" with a level of 654.38+0 million on the computer side.
Hope to adopt. Good luck.