On March 11, 2021, the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress voted and adopted the "14th Five-Year Plan for the National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Outline of Long-term Goals for 2035" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"

Outline").

On March 12, the full text of the "Planning Outline" was released.

The full text of the "Planning Outline" has nineteen chapters and sixty-five chapters. It not only sets 20 major indicators for economic and social development in the next five years, but also clarifies a number of major initiatives and major projects, including 102 major engineering projects.

deploy.

To promote high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, we must base ourselves on the new development stage, implement new development concepts, and build a new development pattern.

This strategic orientation runs through the entire "Planning Outline" of the 14th Five-Year Plan.

Under the guidance of the "dual cycle", the consumer industry may present new characteristics and investment opportunities during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.

The "Planning Outline" sets 20 main goals for economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, mainly covering five aspects: "economic development", "innovation-driven", "people's livelihood and welfare", "green ecology" and "security".

Compared with the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", the "Planning Outline" has expanded sector coverage and streamlined the total number of indicators.

The policy shift reflected in the economic and social development goals during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is the top priority for various institutions in interpreting the "Planning Outline".

In terms of economic development, for the first time, the "Planning Outline" did not set a five-year average annual GDP growth rate expected indicator, but replaced it with the statement "maintained within a reasonable range and proposed in each year based on circumstances."

At the same time, the target setting of the two indicators of "full labor productivity growth" and "resident per capita disposable income growth" are also linked to GDP growth. The former requires "higher than GDP growth" and the latter requires "basically synchronized with GDP growth."

In this regard, the fixed income/macro team of Huatai Securities pointed out that not setting a GDP growth target reflects the "Planning Outline" that "emphasizes quality over speed."

“On the one hand, it takes into account the great uncertainty of the external development environment, and on the other hand, it aims to guide the emphasis on development quality, solve the problem of unbalanced development, leave room for advancing reform tasks and economic transformation, and reduce policy incentives to quench thirst.

Trade the short term for the long term,” Huatai Securities said.

In terms of "innovation-driven", the "Planning Outline" requires that the "increase in R&D investment in the whole society" indicator should be <7%, and "strive to have investment intensity higher than the actual during the 13th Five-Year Plan period."

While changing the "invention patent ownership per 10,000 people" in the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" to "the number of high-value invention patents per 10,000 people", the "Planning Outline" added the "proportion of added value of digital economy core industries in GDP".

"Indicator, and set a growth target of 2.2% (from 7.8% in 2020 to 10% in 2025).

Compared with major developed countries, China's R&D investment still has room for improvement.

World Bank data shows that as of 2018, China's R&D expenditure accounted for 2.19% of GDP, which is lower than the proportions of the United States and Japan in the same period (2.84% and 3.26% respectively).

The strategy team of Guangdong Securities pointed out that the above changes mean that the policy side will provide support for increasing investment in research and development. Future policies will promote the deep integration of digital technology and the real economy, empower the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and the digital economy is expected to usher in rapid development opportunities.

While the overall number of indicators has been streamlined compared with the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the "Planning Outline" places "people's livelihood and well-being" in a prominent position.

Among the 20 main indicators, the "people's livelihood and welfare" category includes 7, accounting for more than one-third, which is the highest in previous five-year plans. The indicators cover employment, income, education, medical care, elderly care, childcare, health, etc.

various fields.

The "Planning Outline" includes the "urban surveyed unemployment rate" indicator, setting an average annual target of no more than 5.5%.

In this regard, Zheshang Securities pointed out that the goal of surveying the unemployment rate is more clear, and the importance of this planned employment goal has been greater than economic growth.

At the same time, the "Planning Outline" also includes new indicators such as "the number of practicing (assistant) doctors per 1,000 people" and "the number of infants and young children under 3 years old per 1,000 people".

Guangdong Securities pointed out that on the one hand, this reflects the concern for improving medical standards. On the other hand, it also reflects the development of an inclusive childcare service system in response to the current aging trend, reducing the costs of childbirth, parenting, and education, and promoting long-term population balance.

direction of development.

The "Planning Outline" renamed the "Resources and Environment" section to "Green Ecology" and streamlined some land development and pollutant emission indicators.

Institutions such as Yuekai Securities and Zheshang Securities have pointed out that the setting of this part of the indicator pays more attention to energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection.

“The green ecological goal is more focused on ‘low carbon’, with energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection being the focus, which coincides with the medium and long-term goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.” Zheshang Securities said.

"Safety Guarantee" is a newly established section in this "Planning Outline". There are two indicators: "Comprehensive Grain Production Capacity" and "Comprehensive Energy Production Capacity", which have respectively established "<650 million tons" and "<46 million tons".

billion tons of standard coal" target.