Wind direction of tuyere (II): Four common paths of tuyere.

Tuyere (3) timing: select the time window for market growth.

A hero is known in the time of misfortune. The last section mainly talks about "potential", the causes and mechanism of market trends. This section talks about "time", that is, the time window of market trends, and how to cut into the right market at the right time.

As mentioned above, the tuyere is the window period for the rapid growth of the target market due to a certain general trend. Because of demand and competition, the market in the window period has two obvious characteristics: the market grows rapidly and the time is fleeting.

In order to better think and understand the window period, we can think from two time points:

Fengkou period: the window period of rapid market growth: Fengkou period is a process of releasing the accumulated potential energy of the market. Once released, the rapid growth of the market will end, which may be reflected in the reconstruction of the stock market or the balance between supply and demand in the incremental market. At this point, the tuyere ends.

Take-off period: the window period of risk financing. When the wind blows out, every mainstream investment fund will lay out its outlets; When the layout of mainstream investment and innovation institutions is completed, it will be difficult to tell the same story to finance. At this point, the takeoff is over.

A hero is known in the time of misfortune. The "era" we often talk about combines the judgment of potential energy (potential energy: the size of market demand), the judgment of obstacles (the number of competitors), the judgment of power pattern changes and fuse events, and the pursuit of entrepreneurs. The most important thing is to grasp the "opportunity". Grasping opportunities is also a tentative interactive process. The following five qualities are available for reference:

1. Thinking strategy: In other words, I have seen the tuyere in advance, and through the investigation and analysis of the market, I am familiar with the contradiction between customers, demand and supply and demand, and predict the possible path of the tuyere.

2. Intelligence gathering: Pay attention to all forces that may affect the potential energy of the tuyere and hinder the change. The aforementioned forces are mainly three driving forces and obstacles.

Typical intelligence gathering includes:

Macro pests: policy research, technological development, economic situation (macro and industry), changes in social habits.

Micro: customer research, competitive product development.

3. Beware of landmark events: The appearance of tuyeres often has a landmark event or fuse.

There are three main types of events worthy of entrepreneurs' attention:

First: competing events: there is a big iteration of competing products, or new competing products appear. The various styles of play tried in the competition represent the participants' cognition of potential energy and path. Think of the market as a big wall. Our competitors and we both hit our heads against the south wall. We tried to cut a gap in this big wall with various postures and strengths. If a competitor changes his style of play, it must mean that he has a new idea about the market. What is this idea? Based on what facts? Are worthy of attention. For example, our competitors have been doing B2C, and now they suddenly turn to B2B, or change their business direction or mode. Whether it is right or wrong, it is worth thinking about.

Second, the customer acquisition event: there was a beautiful virus marketing event in the competing products, and the users grew rapidly. It means that the competing products have made a gap in the south wall. At this time, we should study how to do it quickly and decide whether to follow up quickly. Then quickly execute, follow up or even surpass the opponent.

Third: financing event: competing products get investment. Of all the events, the financing event is the most obvious, but we think it is also the least important. In the market, only the voice of customers is the most important. The financing incident only reflects the recognition of an entrepreneur by this group of smart investors, and does not represent the voice of customers, such as the angel wheel. However, entering the A round can show that the way to get customers has run through. After the A round, the best opportunity has often been missed.

Fourth: Quick decision: When a landmark event appears, it is necessary to quickly judge whether this event means a change in the trend, whether the previous judgment path needs to be adjusted, and whether it can follow the trend. If it is an opportunity, quickly adjust the direction and prepare to take off; If it is not an opportunity, we will resolutely play according to our original routine;

Fifth, closed-loop execution: after take-off, all strategies still need to be adjusted in trial and error, so fast closed-loop execution is necessary. (How to close the loop behind)

The core of chasing the wind mouth is to judge the timing, which requires self-cultivation. Entrepreneurs who follow the wind often have a premonition and preparation before the wind blows, and the process of following the wind also has a clear judgment. Most entrepreneurs who can ask "I see the wind, dare to chase it" don't think clearly and then try and make mistakes.

Why is there a take-off period?

For entrepreneurship, making money is skin and financing is gross. If entrepreneurs can prove their ability in the market, investors will chase you to invest. When the wind blows out, every mainstream investment fund will lay out its outlets; When the layout of mainstream venture capital institutions is completed, it is even more difficult to talk about the same story financing. At this time, the take-off is over. Simply put, investors' funds and attention are limited. Venture capital, follow the trend, short windfall period and short take-off period.

Some students will ask, "although I am late in financing, my products are better than competing products." Why can't I get the money? " A good investment institution will do a comprehensive combing and research on the whole industry before investing. When investors pay attention to the tuyere, you are not in his field of vision. After the investor layout is completed, you appear. First of all, it shows that your timing is backward. Secondly, it's the same problem. Investors have limited funds and attention. People voted, loved, and you showed up. "I gave birth to a gentleman, but I gave birth to a gentleman."

How long is the absence period?

According to different industries, it is generally believed that:

1. For pure Internet business: platform-based startups have no chance to take off, and content-based startups have already had the opportunity to take off.

2. For the "internet plus" business, and it is the incremental market caused by the value chain reconstruction of the stock market or intergenerational differences, if there is a huge market and urgent demand, the take-off period will be longer. Just calculate the speed of your competitors and your speed, and let investors believe that you can grab a market. Can be successfully financed. Intuitively, before a competitor merges into Round C or monopolizes more than five first-tier cities, there will be opportunities for entrepreneurial teams to take off.

3. For "internet plus" business, the market outside the second description is not so big, and there is usually no big market, which is not urgent. If there are more than two start-ups in this field in the B round of financing, it is generally considered that the take-off period has ended. Subsequent entrepreneurs must consider the differentiation between existing competitors.

4. For internet plus business, it is difficult to establish a business model (not just needed, low frequency, niche, low gross profit). More than two companies in this field have carried out A round of financing. If the follow-up entrepreneurs do not have differentiated business models and excellent team or operation data, the financing difficulty will increase significantly.

Market insight When big bosses are talking about "windows", what are they talking about? After sharing the three sections, you can watch "Single Breakthrough" and combine the cases around you to deepen your understanding and implementation.

Knowing the weather at the tuyere (1): How to distinguish the tuyere and judge its size?

Wind direction of tuyere (II): Four common paths of tuyere.

Tuyere (3) timing: select the time window for market growth.