Hehe, please look at a set of figures first (thanks to Zhongdeng Company's monthly report):
Distribution table of market value of A-share accounts at the end of p>29: natural persons (excluding funds, Bonds)
-1, 15,613,82 households
1-1, 26,227,865
1,-5, 6,899,47
5-1,,833,778
1,-5,,498,631
5. At the end of 26, the market value of A-share circulation at that time was about 3 trillion, and it was estimated that there were about 2 million to 3 million active shareholders at that time. With 3, yuan invested in stock market assets (capital plus market value) as the standard for large shareholders, the number of large shareholders was about 4, to 5,. At the end of 27, the market value of circulation was about 8 trillion yuan, and it was estimated that there were between 25 million and 3 million active shareholders at that time, with 5, yuan as the standard for large shareholders, and the total number remained unchanged compared with a year ago.
let's go back to this set of numbers. At the beginning of 21, the total circulating market value of China A-shares exceeded 16 trillion. Compared with the end of 27, we all know that the doubling of circulating market value is mainly due to the lifting of the ban on restricted shares and the contribution of IPO. Considering the increase of circulating market value and CPI, how about raising the standard of large shareholders to 1 million yuan?
so, what is the number of active investors (with transactions within one year)? I don't think there is much change compared with the end of 27. Although there are more than 13 million valid A-share accounts in Shenzhen and Shanghai, active accounts and accounts with stocks are always within 6 million. Considering that active investors must have accounts in Shenzhen, Shanghai and A, the actual number of people should be discounted, that is, kept within 3 million.
how to calculate the number of large shareholders? The following factors should be considered here:
First, the statistics of Zhongdeng Company are calculated by combining the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets, that is to say, there is still a problem that the number of investors with a large market value and the number of accounts are discounted (on the contrary, the number of investors with a market value of less than 1, yuan can be basically calculated by the number of accounts, because it is extremely unlikely that thousands of dollars will buy stocks in Shenzhen and Shanghai at the same time). In this way, it is necessary to convert accounts with a market value of 5,-1 into the number of large shareholders with assets of more than 1 million. Based on this calculation, the number of large shareholders is close to 7,;
Second, considering that accounts with a market value of 5,-75, will account for a large proportion of accounts above 5, (the pyramid of the relationship between the number of investors and assets in China is extremely steep, and the proportion of people is basically proportional to the reciprocal of assets), and it is unlikely that investors with two accounts will hold shares in Shenzhen and Shanghai at the same time with basically the same market value, so quite a few people will still be excluded from the million standard, which is an important factor to reduce the number of large investors;
Third, the tractor accounts of bookmakers and large funds will also lead to higher asset concentration and fewer real large shareholders.
fourth, another factor that affects the number of large shareholders is the proportion of positions. Considering that the overall position ratio of China stock market is above 8% even in the lowest period, and the market situation at the end of 29 is not very bad, and it is estimated that the position ratio is 9%, then the number of shareholders' assets should be at least 1.1 times the market value, which is a factor that will increase the number of large shareholders.
Because there are not enough data for quantitative analysis due to two, three and four factors, if we consider it comprehensively, we can arbitrarily think that there are about 6, large shareholders with assets exceeding one million in the stock market in China at present. This number is far more than two years ago.
what caused the assets and the number of large shareholders in China A-share market to increase greatly? Is everyone making money? I think the main reason is not this, but the lifting of the ban and IPO in recent years. This is the only way to truly create wealth.
some feelings.
First of all, people in China are much poorer than expected. The wealth of individuals and families in China is mainly distributed in the following three aspects: real estate is the bulk, which is about 1 trillion at the market price, including 8 trillion in urban real estate; Personal deposits are calculated at 2 trillion yuan (excluding private deposits of public funds); The stock is calculated at 16 trillion. Other unlisted shares, commercial real estate and gold foreign exchange bonds are small heads and have nothing to do with the vast majority of citizens. We have reason to believe that the distribution of China people's real estate and deposits will be similar to the distribution of stock market assets. So, it can be inferred that a standard middle-class family in China's first tier cities only has a house worth 1 million and financial assets of about 2,. Please note that this is still the standard of first-tier cities, excluding farmers and residents of small and medium-sized cities at all.
Secondly, the wealth concentration of China people may be higher than expected. I can only come to this conclusion by comparing tens of millions of retail investors with less than 1 thousand assets with hundreds of thousands of large investors with assets exceeding one million.
finally, the importance of China stock market is far lower than expected. After so many years of tossing, only 3 million investors are active in the market, and more than 95% have little money, which is still just a wealth game for a few people. Therefore, the authorities are doomed to continue to toss this market in the future. Anyway, investors can't afford to turn over any waves, regardless of how many people's lives. By contrast, the importance of the house is much greater.